Notre Dame isn’t looking for a head coach right now. At least, the job isn’t open. However, the speculation over the next head man in South Bend is already thousands (millions?) of page views deep.
Today, I am beginning a set of 3 articles that will rate the candidates to someday coach the Fighting Irish. As is usual, coaching speculation is completely silly season full of panic, odd personal attachments, and misplaced priorities. In other words, most coaching candidate lists are terrible. In some cases, they are deliberately terrible for optimal outrage. It’s a race to the hottest take.
My goal is to try and best measure the candidates and their worthiness. In doing so, we’ll see some obvious no-brainer candidates but I hope that it also provides a good frame work for the right coach and open up discussion for what we’re looking for from potential candidates and why.
Scratched Off
Before I lay out the grading system we need to scratch off some names. The list of elite head coaches taking lateral jobs within blue-blood programs is about as sparse as Mike Leach’s run game playbook. Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and Florida State are each inside the Top 12 in all-time winning percentage. As such, we’re going to cut out Saban, Meyer, Harbaugh, and Fisher on the grounds that virtually no one in the country thinks they’re coming to Notre Dame.
There are a handful of programs inside the all-time Top 12 with coaches that we will include, for various reasons. I don’t think there will be a major objection to this decision but we welcome all opinions against or for anyone.
Head Coaches Only
Folks have been putting lists together for Notre Dame for many years and one of the more level-headed and sane ideas is to only choose from head coaches in the college ranks. In truth, the next coach is at least 95% likely to come from someone currently leading a college football program.
If only to keep the list somewhat manageable we will only include college head coaches.
Recruiting
This may seem sacrilegious but I’m not going to factor in recruiting prowess much, if at all. That is going to be controversial but I look at things this way:
Let’s say every candidate on the list ends up going 17-9 through their first two years at Notre Dame. I guarantee just about every coach would bring in classes ranked somewhere from 7th to 15th nationally. In other words, recruiting at Notre Dame is pretty stable and self-sufficient that there’s not enough evidence to believe someone will do worse because of inexperience or come in and out-recruit Saban.
Reaching sustained elite heights in recruiting is going to take success on the field no matter what and I’ll focus on the coaching side of things. It’s super difficult to project anyone to be an out-of-the-box tremendous recruiter anyway–and while there may be legit concerns about someone recruiting nationally in Notre Dame’s spotlight–a lot of that can be overcome with experience and quality coaching.
Missed the Cut
In addition to the elite names mentioned above we had to scratch other coaches off the list before grading them. Most of these men have found some success in varying degrees throughout their careers (and thus are worth a mention) but they’re names I’d imagine every Irish fan would have deep reservations coming to South Bend in their present form.
The coaches include:
Niumatalolo, Narduzzi, Mendenhall, Clawson, Strong, Kingsbury, Holgorsen, Ferentz, Rodriguez, Graham, Helfrich, Mora, Leach, Jones, Freeze, Cutcliffe, and Snyder.
If you strenuously object, bring it up in the comment section!
Grading
I’m going to try something similar to the way I published the Top 75 Losses in Notre Dame History (what a fun series!) except with the coaches there’s going to be a little bit more wiggle room for opinion. That’s what makes this endeavor worth throwing out there, though.
WINNING- 6 Points
EXPERIENCE- 5 Points
CEILING- 3 Points
REALISTIC- 3 Points
FIT- 2 Points
SCHEME- 1 Point
TOTAL- 20 Points
I’ll be using decimals to the tenth percent. Winning is pretty self explanatory–coaches with higher winning percentages will be rewarded in addition to big wins and post-season success. For experience many years coaching by itself isn’t notable but it clearly helps. Many years with winning is highly valued. So is coaching at more than one school and proving you can adjust to different scenes, circumstances, and styles.
Younger coaches who have proven they can win big games are valued. We’re looking for a trajectory where you’re currently in your prime or your best days are just ahead as far as ceiling is concerned. A coach that is realistic allows some opinion to separate each coach based on where they are in their careers and how likely they would be to leave their current situation for Notre Dame.
For fit we’re looking at personality, media comfort, and charisma as things that definitely matter. Personal beliefs and cultural background (religion, race, etc.) are less important compared to the belief you could sell (and accept) Notre Dame’s uniqueness and academic rigors. Finally, we’ll leave some room for scheme for the coaches who have displayed an ability to teach their system and consistently produce on at least one side of the ball.
The Top 30 countdown will begin soon…
I would include Clawson and Strong.
Two points I would differ. It should not just be winning, but more winning plus. How much better did you make the team than it was before your arrival, but more importantly than it has traditionally been.
Similarly, with recruiting. Have you improved the quality of player the school is getting. As we saw with Wilingham, it is possible to give away our advantages.
This is why I would include Clawson. He will never have a dominant winning percentage. They are in the same division as Clemson, FSU and Louisville. He has improved recruiting at Wake to what are historically unprecedented levels, even under Grobe. They have their first 4 star commitment ever. Of course, his downside is that, much like Kelly, he is his own coaching tree. Only one year at a big program.
I think you include Strong too. The reasons for his failing at Texas are numerous. He wanted to run an offense that his players and his recruiting base did not know how to run. He is not instinctively a spread guy, but that is what Texas HS FB is now. He was slow to adapt. He had to reshape a culture that had gone wobbly, both physically and ethically. He ‘cut’ a lot of players. The main boosters wanted Saban and when they didn’t get him, they would not support anyone. Strong has succeeded at Louisville, which was not a small task. He has coached at ND, is part of the Meyer coaching tree. He does not like to glad hand, but might be more welcome in South Bend than he was at Texas given the Saban issue. His players worship him. He has clearly failed at the top level, but so did Belicheck. Maybe he has learned a lot.
I don’t know that either would or should be the choice, but they should be on the list.
I also think you need to add acceptability. Perhaps it is part of the other criteria. There is no coach that will be acceptable to everyone, but the hire should be respectable.
That will definitely be factored in, for sure.
Still don’t think it’s enough of a factor to include in the grading. Plus, things can get really, really muddy when you start looking at recruiting.
Is this really true? 12th, 11th, and currently 13th within the ACC for recruiting, per the Composite over the last 3 years. Quick look at things under Grobe and that looks like where most years are for Wake Forest.
I think Clawson is someone to watch for down the road, but not right now. Only one good season at BGSU, never won a bowl game, still just 71st overall in F/+ today, and far too light of a resume.
I’m not a big believer in Strong being a good head coach. He’s been mediocre to bad without Teddy Bridgewater which is a huge red flag. Even with Teddy Two Gloves his two best Louisville teams finished 45th and 12th in F/+ because of some really weak schedules. Petrino reached higher heights at Louisville, too.
He’s a nice guy but that shouldn’t be topping the list. Especially when he’s a poor fit in terms of media savvy. Those things would get worse at ND, IMO. He’s also sneaky old, too. I think he peaked a while ago and we’re beginning to see why it took him such a long time to get a head coaching job in the first place.
Completely agree in terms of recruiting acumen. For all the complaining about how hard it is to recruit at ND, that’s relative to osu, michigan, clemson, bama, etc. Minimal competence and some recruiting effort guarantees a top 15 spot every year which almost no schools have. Hell we had a DC that despised recruiting and some lackluster on field results and still are always top 12 without a killer recruiting head coach. Recruiting would rank quite low for me, and I expect for jack as well
I realize it makes the analysis simpler, but I don’t think it’s 95% likely that we would only hire from the college head coach ranks – or, at the very least, I don’t know if the powers that be should treat that as a near-requirement. Major programs, including those that are probably considered more attractive jobs than ND, have hired from the coordinator or position coach ranks quasi-recently (with mixed success, but I’m not sure that’s any different than hiring from the HC ranks) – e.g., UGA, USC, Florida State, Florida, Clemson.
Hue Jackson was said to have blown away Irish brass during his interview. Had Kelly said no he might have been named HC.
I’d be floored if they picked someone without college head coaching experience, especially if it’s Swarbrick’s decision.
I’d be willing to listen to any arguments to the contrary (that we should look into non-head coaches) but “it worked for Oklahoma and Florida State” isn’t very convincing to me. After that, not sure there’s a burgeoning list of candidates to sort through.
Part 2 isn’t a comprehensive list of the reasons why Notre Dame must hire Tom Clements?
Totally agree that the list wouldn’t start with coordinators, but I’d rather we end up with, say, Brent Venables as our next head coach (in a hypothetical world in which the coaching search went bad) rather than most of the names on the list from this article, as well as some others in P5 (e.g., Steve Addazio, Sonny Dykes).
I like Venebales, too. But it’s a cavernous drop to the next coordinator isn’t it?
I’d rather Greg Schiano, Bud Foster or even Lincoln Riley be our coach than, e.g., Addazio or Dykes… but yes, it seems like Venables would be a much better hire than those three.
True, but Adazzio and Dykes don’t even make the Top 80 head coaching list. At least not my list.
As much as I hate them both, if the season were to end today with Kelly fired and us needing a new coach…I couldn’t see us getting anyone other than David Shaw or Niumatalolo. I can’t see us getting anyone other than a coach with success at a “smart” school. I like the idea of Fleck, but I think Jack would want someone with more history, especially with history at a school with recruiting hassles.
Seems like a lateral move for Shaw. We recruit better but don’t play better. Would make his smile more tolerable. At least until we’re losing and the camera shows him on the sidelines smiling.
He went to Stanford, and he has spent enough time at Notre Dame to know that you don’t leave Palo Alto for South Bend.
I think Shaw and Coach N are among the most unrealistic, following the elite guys.
I could see “unwanted” by most Irish fans. I don’t see “unrealistic.” ND could likely pay either of them more than what they get now. They both have history recruiting nationally…and among kids that have to “play school.” I really think Jenkins and Swarbrick have more weight on those aspects for a new coach than they do on “scheme” or whatever. I also think that with the history of getting McLaughlin for volleyball and Buckie Leach for fencing recently that they have no qualms about getting an ELITE guy for the job.
I don’t want either of them, but I am also used to ND disappointing me. I assume this search would be par for the course on that front.
I think there’s less than a 1% chance we hire a triple option coach.
I’ll get into Shaw more in Part III.
Was rewatching the VT game. Guess I felt too good following thanksgiving. Seems like Donte Vaughn has been playing well. Hopeful his career won’t follow the Cole Luke regression curve (my impression is actually that Luke has been pretty good at nickel).
I kind of like all the young DBs. They seem to have some talent and fighting spirit. We really got hurt by the Redfield and Butler deals on the leadership side, and the whole BVG era (seems to me Todd Lyght is coaching a bit better post BVG?) then especially losing poor Shaun for another season.
Love is frequently in good position but needs to get his head around I think. Hopefully, that will come. As for the safeties, I am less enthused. Anecdotally, Studstill looked bad on that long pass toward the beginning of the second half. A simple slant where the receiver beats an overmatched Tranquil in man coverage. We seem to be in Cover 1 with Studstill playing center field. Studstill does not come up and make the tackle. Very well, maybe he was preoccupied with a deeper route or caught flat-footed. But then he takes a bad angle and chases the receiver to around the five where the receiver is forced out, and I’m not even sure it was Studstill who forced him out. Elliot looked bad on the following VT touchdown where their receiver sits down around the five then puts on a little move after the catch and makes Elliot look silly. Open field tackling is hard and requires the confidence to attack the ball-carrier. Hopefully that comes.
Looks like Orgeron for LSU and Herman to Texas.
Is Kyle Chandler available?
Clear eyes, full hearts…hey, maybe that’s why we’ve been losing. We just needed a little more of this:
pics.drugstore.com/prodimg/12302/900.jpg
Some great points on this board. Winning plus is the right metric for coaches not at elite schools (that is, the kind of coaches we can realistically recruit). Also, great point about Lyght. Secondary seems better post BVG.
I’d argue for Leach, though I don’t know much beyond his air raid guru reputation. I feel like he and Cutcliffe have overachieved. Snyder is the classic overachiever but too old.
Can I nominate Lane Kiffin? Coordinator now but lots of HC experience, and he’s observed Saban for a couple years.
Downinthebend loves Leach!
There’s no way the country’s most pass-happy coach and perhaps the country’s most grumpy coach would survive at ND.
Cutcliffe is too old (62, but with his health issues he’s an “old” 62 and looks it) and has a really low ceiling.
I’d re-visit Kiffin in all seriousness in about 10 years.
Two points from my lurking position, which happens to be a hotel room watching the Utes/Buffs, caught the second half of the Irish on TV following a flight from Frankfurt….
1. Eric (and team), can’t say how relieved I was to find your blog halfway through the season. The team on the field was matched by the performance at my former favorite Irish football site. Ugh.
2. I’m admittedly not a student of the game (one of the reasons I find this site so fascinating), nor am I among the “Fire Kelly” crowd, so my simple fanboy pick at a potential coach is Chris Petersen. He was my hope in the last transition. Assuming he’s included in the pending posts so I look forward to your thoughts.
3. Okay, a third point; I’m optimistic about next year. If I wasn’t, why would I bother?
Amen, Irish Spring !!
1. Thanks for jumping on board with us.
2. Petersen is my boy. I won’t make any secret of that.
3. Hope springs eternal. Wish we could fast forward to Signing Day and spring practice. The stuff in between isn’t going to be very fun.
Peterson would also be my favorite. Those wishing for a chance at him better be rooting for the Buffs in the Pac 12 Championship game. Coaching changes in the modern era can’t stretch until the first week of January and no coach is bailing on any program amidst a playoff run.
It’s really an unlikely scenario that finds him in South Bend, but for those of us who would like to see it, we find ourselves rooting against our crush. That feels kind of weird.
Peterson would be a great choice. Plus it would be poetic. Willingham wrecks two programs and Peterson fixes them.
I’d be absolutely overjoyed if the ND brass were to somehow lure Petersen from UW. Having said that, Petersen is a West Coast guy, and I don’t see him leaving. Given that the Pac-12 is a bit down in my opinion, he’d be wise to keep a good thing going in Seattle.
One name I have not really seen mentioned much here and on other boards is Gary Patterson. Thoughts, anyone?
I don’t see why he’d leave TCU to come to ND. Much like many coaches being bandied about, why leave a Power 5 program that you put on the map (or rebuilt: Stoops at OU) to take a greater challenge at ND with less margin for error and less reward? It’s be one thing if he was only at TCU a few years and there was any hint of him moving on, but I’d imagine he’s happy where he is at.
He’s my favorite of the guys who might at least take a call (excluding people like Saban, Meyer, and *maybe* Chris Petersen). Also the best recent case study for turning around a 4-8 season into a playoff contender. Similar to Stoops, Gundy, Kyle Whittingham, etc., you’re sort of hoping he just wants a new challenge without a ton of evidence to support that. You just don’t know until you ask.