In Part 1 of this series we looked at the defensive recruiting of Clemson in the 2012-14 window in the lead up to their 2016 National Championship, how they supplemented that recruiting with young players, and comparisons to Notre Dame then and now. Today, we’ll tackle the offense where Clemson hit on a generational quarterback but also provided plenty of air support to the program.
Notre Dame Recruit 2012-14
Clemson Recruit 2012-14
Notre Dame Recruit 2019-21
Quarterback
Notre Dame, Gunner Kiel 0.987
Clemson, Deshaun Watson 0.979
Notre Dame, Tyler Buchner 0.968
Notre Dame, Malik Zaire 0.930
Clemson, Chad Kelly 0.926
Notre Dame, Drew Pyne 0.916
Notre Dame, DeShone Kizer 0.907
Notre Dame, Brendon Clark 0.879
Notre Dame, Ron Powlus III 0.812
This topic has been covered so extensively it’s barely worth re-hashing today. Watson led Clemson to 50 points and broke 12 school records in his first career start as a true freshman against North Carolina in 2014 and never looked back while transforming the program into the elite stratosphere.
Notre Dame…did not have that happen. Kiel transferred out before his career got started culminating in a rocky but decent stint at Cincinnati while the Zaire/Kizer combo was largely bungled and full of injuries with a side of Brian VanGorder disease on the other side of the ball.
The fun thing to wonder about is if Buchner is The Guy whether the Irish are tracking along the same lines as Clemson in 2012-13 and that’s the big question. I think there’s a tendency to say, “Notre Dame’s recruiting was similar to Clemson in this timeframe and they’re only a quarterback away” but as we showed in the part 1 of this series the Tigers supplemented 2016 with an enormous defensive line haul in the 2 classes after recruiting Watson and as we’ll see below they didn’t just rest on their laurels helping their quarterback on offense, either.
Running Back
Notre Dame, Greg Bryant 0.976
Notre Dame, Chris Tyree 0.968
Notre Dame, Tarean Folston 0.950
Notre Dame, Keivarae Russell 0.943
Clemson, Tyshon Dye 0.929
Notre Dame, Will Mahone 0.917
Notre Dame, Audric Estime 0.910
Notre Dame, Kyren Williams 0.891
Notre Dame, Logan Diggs 0.877
Clemson got a heck of a career out of Wayne Gallman (0.893) technically listed as a linebacker recruit and would ride him almost exclusively to the title in 2016 with Dye, Adam Choice (listed below in the athlete section), and true freshman Tavien Feaster (0.981) playing smaller roles.
Notre Dame went through some lean recruiting years at running back recently but appears to be back on track for a program hoping to remain a constant in the Top 10 nationally while hitting on on Tyree as a near 5-star and developing Kyren Williams (and hoping to do the same with Estime and Diggs).
Wide Receiver
Notre Dame, Jordan Johnson 0.982
Clemson, Artavis Scott 0.967
Clemson, Germone Hopper 0.965
Notre Dame, Deon Colzie 0.957
Notre Dame, Justin Brent 0.955
Notre Dame, Lorenzo Styles 0.947
Clemson, Trevion Thompson 0.945
Clemson, Demarre Kitt 0.930
Notre Dame, Corey Holmes 0.924
Notre Dame, Torii Hunter 0.917
Clemson, Mike Williams 0.911
Notre Dame, Will Fuller 0.900
Notre Dame, Jayden Thomas 0.899
Notre Dame, James Onwualu 0.895
Notre Dame, Justin Ferguson 0.893
Clemson, Kyrin Priester 0.891
Notre Dame, Xavier Watts 0.888
Notre Dame, Corey Robinson 0.882
Notre Dame, Cam Hart 0.871
Notre Dame, Jay Brunelle 0.862
Can you imagine if Fuller didn’t develop into Explosiva what this would’ve looked like for Notre Dame from the 2012-14 classes? The program did include high 4-stars in Justin Brent and Davonte Neal (listed below in the athlete section) who combined for a grand total of 1 reception before both transferred out. Huge whiffs, there.
Why were fans so impatient about Jordan Johnson, I wonder? It’s pretty wild to see him listed atop of this list of receivers. Now that he’s transferred it really hits home once again how things have not been going very well at receiver for Notre Dame. The program really needs to hit on Styles, Colzie, and a couple more future recruits in the 2022-23 classes.
Clemson’s run to 2016 was full of hits with their receivers, but of course things were far from perfect. Hopper caught 71 passes in 3 years before leaving for his 5th season, Kitt transferred after his first season, while Priester didn’t qualify in 2013 (sent to Fork Union Military Academy) and then was dismissed during his freshman year at Clemson. Thompson (53 catches across 4 seasons) never really lived up to his potential, either.
However, Artavis Scott and Mike Williams had phenomenal college careers combining for 422 receptions, 5,207 yards, and 40 touchdowns as key veterans on the 2016 championship team.
Additionally, just like the defensive line Clemson supplemented big time with young players after recruiting Watson at quarterback as Deon Cain (0.990) and Ray Ray McCloud (0.962) plus super walk-on Hunter Renfrow were all impact players immediately upon stepping on campus. This trio alone accounted for 131 catches, 1,691 yards, and 17 touchdowns during the 2016 season.
Before Justyn Ross (0.976), Tee Higgins (0.990), and Amari Rodgers (0.945) even made it to campus, Clemson’s 2016 receiving corps was a few notches better than anything Notre Dame has ever experienced.
Tight End
Notre Dame, Michael Mayer 0.983
Notre Dame, Kevin Bauman 0.917
Notre Dame, Cane Berrong .913
Notre Dame, Mike Heuerman 0.906
Notre Dame, Durham Smythe 0.905
Notre Dame, Nic Weishar 0.905
Notre Dame, Tyler Luatua 0.896
Clemson, Milan Richard 0.893
Notre Dame, Mitchell Evans 0.877
Clemson, Jordan Leggett 0.871
Milan Richard was a steady backup throughout his career while Jordan Leggett had a great 2-year run in 2015-16 including catching 86 total passes. It worked out pretty well for Clemson.
I’ll continue the tight end discussion below after we highlight the next position.
Offensive Line
Notre Dame, Blake Fisher 0.973
Notre Dame, Rocco Spindler 0.971
Notre Dame, Quenton Nelson .970
Notre Dame, Zeke Correll 0.957
Notre Dame, Hunter Bivin 0.954
Notre Dame, Tosh Baker 0.954
Notre Dame, Alex Bars 0.948
Notre Dame, Ronnie Stanley 0.947
Notre Dame, Quinn Carroll 0.947
Notre Dame, Steve Elmer 0.946
Clemson, Tyrone Crowder 0.946
Notre Dame, Jarron Jones 0.942
Notre Dame, Michael Carmody 0.935
Notre Dame, John Montelus 0.933
Notre Dame, Mike McGlinchey 0.928
Notre Dame, Andrew Kristofic 0.925
Notre Dame, John Olmstead 0.924
Notre Dame, Colin McGovern 0.920
Notre Dame, Sam Mustipher 0.912
Clemson, Cannon Smith 0.898
Notre Dame, Caleb Johnson 0.895
Notre Dame, Jimmy Byrne 0.892
Clemson, D.J. Reader 0.890
Notre Dame, Joe Alt 0.886
Notre Dame, Mark Harrell 0.879
Clemson, Jay Guillermo 0.879
Notre Dame, Pat Coogan 0.870
Clemson, Patrick DeStefano 0.867
Clemson, Isaiah Battle 0.865
Clemson, Justin Falcinelli 0.865
Clemson, Taylor Hearn 0.850
Clemson, Maverick Morris 0.854
Clemson, Oliver Jones 0.848
One of the things about Clemson’s 2016 run was that while QB/WR/DL got all the press they largely skated by with a very average (relatively speaking) offensive line, and by extension, running game.
They added true sophomore Mitch Hyatt (0.989) who was highly-touted and started at left tackle while true freshman Sean Pollard (0.902) started at right tackle in 2016. They combined with Crowder, Guillermo, and Hearn listed above while no one ended up being drafted or is currently on a NFL roster. Imagine Notre Dame winning a National Championship and that happening with their offensive line?
As we know well, Notre Dame’s blue-chip rate is boosted heavily from the offensive line and tight end positions but that hasn’t necessarily moved the needle towards elite status. I know fans don’t like hearing it, but these positions are overrated.
Athlete
Notre Dame, Davonte Neal 0.974
Clemson, Zac Brooks 0.918
Clemson, Jayron Kearse 0.912
Clemson, Adam Choice 0.901
Notre Dame Rashad Kinlaw 0.883
Notre Dame, Chris Brown 0.882
Notre Dame, Kendall Abdur-Rahman 0.878
Notre Dame, Nicky Baratti 0.877
Notre Dame, Ramon Henderson 0.870
Notre Dame, JoJo Johnson 0.864
Clemson, T.J. Green 0.850
Clemson, Jay Jay McCullough 0.847
Clemson, Marcus Edmond 0.817
Brooks was a career backup running back and 7th round pick, Kearse became a starting safety and another 7th round pick, Choice broke 1,000 yards rushing but went undrafted, Green converted from receiver to safety eventually developing into a starter and 2nd round pick, McCullough didn’t do much at tight end, while we mentioned in part 1 that Edmond started at safety in 2016.
Notre Dame lost Neal and Kinlaw to transfer early in their careers, Brown had a nice career with 104 receptions, while Baratti looked promising early and could never overcome shoulder injuries.
***
The Bottom Line
This series began because of Bill Connelly’s idea that due to Notre Dame’s recent on-field success, infrastructure, and blue-chip rate they could become the “Next Clemson.” I’ve been mostly taking that to mean could the Irish win a single National Championship, right?
I don’t think it’s possible at the moment for Notre Dame to become the next Clemson in terms of 2 National Championships and to replicate their current run of success. The Tigers are 88-8 (.916) since Deshaun Watson first started a game with top 5 finishes in each of the last 6 seasons. Nothing like that has ever existed in AP-era for Notre Dame. Clemson was once recruiting modestly well (like the Irish) but have since jacked up the star power, for example, signing the country’s top quarterback in 2020, and then signing 2 defensive linemen even more highly rated than said quarterback, from a total of 11 players inside the Top 103 national prospects.
The more interesting topic is if Buchner turns into an elite quarterback can the program be in a place in 2023 similar to Clemson heading into 2016 for just one title?
At the positions of offensive line, tight end, running back, and linebacker it seems very possible with the way Notre Dame has recruited. Defensive line and the secondary are trickier because the Irish are unlikely to match Clemson’s beefy star power up front and would therefore need to recruit and develop better that what the Tigers did in the secondary.
Lastly, the receiving corps is kind of the final frontier. Who would’ve thought with Kelly’s background this would be such an issue? Granted, it’s more of a quarterback/wideout combination issue as the Irish have had receivers taken 13th, 21st, 49th, 93rd, 189th, and 207th overall in the NFL Draft under Kelly. However, to be like Clemson, at minimum, you’ll likely need a rich man’s version of Chase Claypool and Miles Boykin on the field at the same time with a third receiver capable of taking over a game, too. This type of elite production has remained elusive for Notre Dame.
I think that you nailed a few important points here. Obviously hitting on a blue chip QB is important, but ND also needs to hit on more than one talented WR at the same time…imagine ND with both senior-level Claypool and Fuller threatening defenses. In that scenario, defenses could not just focus on double-teaming one guy, plus it would open up opportunities for the backs or TE.
Another point (that you have been hammering home the past year or so) is that O-Line and TE are propping up ND’s blue chip ratio, and the sad truth is that these are not necessarily the positions that will get you a championship.
Yeah, the OL and TE are kind what builds the floor of your team but they can’t raise the ceiling. If you have elite OL, which ND has basically had for the last 5 years or so, it pretty much ensures that you will be very good on offense but it can’t get you to the elite level.
How can anyone say that OL is overrated? The fact that we have dominated at OL recruiting is the reason we have been a top 5ish team the past few years. It is the only thing we have recruited at an elite level, and it is what is keeping us afloat. Just because it is not the only position that matters to win a NC, doesn’t mean it is overrated. As goldendomer0209 mentions, it raises the floor of your program, which is pretty important since all teams other than Bama have off days or years.
Look at OU. That have first round QBs and WRs every year and haven’t won a NC, or come closer than us. Does that mean QBs and WRs are overrated? No. It just means that it takes a lot of elite positions. And in CFB you can recruit the best of every position. It isn’t like you have to sacrifice OL to get better WRs (just look at Alabama’s last class).
Pretty much every stat boils down to net passing is what wins you games (passing O+D). OL is a huge part of that (just look at the super bowl). It is not the only part of it, and you can make up for lacking certain things in other ways, like they do in the NFL.
Yeah, I was going to say, it’s not that the OL and TE positions are overrated, it’s just that we need a higher quantity of hits at the other positions in recruiting. I don’t know if we’ll get over the hump to a true national title worthy team in the Kelly era, but we’re at least closer than we’ve been since Holtz. It only takes a few of the right coaching moves and a few more hits at our weak points in recruiting and we can make a leap.
Saban was recently asked about defending ND. His basic point was most teams didn’t have the personnel to match against our TEs. My reaction to that interview is developing a dominance in a few positions is good enough to beat most. When they countered it, we couldn’t really respond.
I agree with Eric’s point re OL and TE’s, while acknowledging that of the two, I’d rather have a top end OL than a top end TE, given the choice.
Re Saban, he doesn’t seem to prioritize TE’s much in his recruiting or offensive scheme. Forrestal (starting TE) was very ordinary. Saban’s all in on WR, Slot and RB though. What’s insane is he had the best RB, WR and Slot, Joe Moore winning Oline, and first round CB and DT in 2020, along with the 15th pick at QB.
We have a looong way to go. Even Clemson fell by the wayside compared to Bama..
Disagree. The defensive play since 2017 has been far, far, far more important.
It’s overrated relative to Notre Dame and our recruiting.
I would not be saying this if we recruited DL like we do OL.
List of most important positions in college football:
1) QB
2) DE
3) WR
4) DT
5) CB
6) OT
7) RB
8) S
9) LB
10) OG/OC
11) TE
I don’t disagree with much of this. I would separate OC/OG and move up OC and S above RB and maybe remove TE entirely.
But the OL is 5 players. So yes, it is less important than the play of the entire defense, but it is also in no way overrated. I would argue that the OL play has been more important to our current success than any individual defensive grouping.
I think maybe there needs to be a distinction made between are we talking about the importance of a single position (i.e. LT, Rover, etc), a position group, or recruiting an individual player.
For instance, for TE, which we both agree is 11 at best, it makes a bigger impact landing a 5 star TE than yet another 5 star OL. But that doesn’t mean TEs are underrated. So for recruiting at ND, OL is the thing to get the least excited about, because we have tons of talent there.
We’ve had sooo many stink bombs running the ball in big games, though. One per year and sometimes two. That’s not entirely on the OL alone but it’s tough to say in the biggest moments they have been the most important grouping.
Just because they haven’t always been perfect, doesn’t mean they haven’t been the best, or most important.
I think the fact that our offense grinds to a screeching halt when they are getting beat shows how important they have been to us winning games.
The problem with the whole discussion is that football is such a team sport where different positions compete against different positions, it is so hard to judge how important any specific unit is.
I will fully accept that in recruiting. A single 5 star OT is less important than many other positions. And there’s a reason an OG/OC can’t even reach 5 stars.
Totally agree there. Notre Dame’s defense has been it’s true strength post-BVG.
Since Oklahoma was mentioned above, it’s kinda weird how Oklahoma’s problem is basically the inverse of Notre Dame. if you take the 2018 playoff Oklahoma offense (Kyler, CeeDee Lamb, Hollywood Brown, Trey Sermon) and pair them with one of the better ND defenses, that’s a national title type of team. You can round that out with one of those 3rd-29th best level of OL’s that are pretty good but not dominant.
What OU is great at (namely QB) is where ND has missed. What ND has been good at (limiting pass yards mainly through strong front 7 play) is where Oklahoma is not championship-caliber.
And it also speaks to just how dominant Clemson and Bama (and LSU the one year) are when it takes fusing together two top-5ish really good programs just to get to the pinnacle of the sport. It’s pretty wild how far ahead the extreme elite are right now.
Given that it seems like the best teams have gotten better since 2016, what do you think is the baseline minimum that would have to go ND’s way beyond the current norm/trajectory to have a legitimate shot at winning a title in 2023? Buchner being a top-2 QB nationally and Styles and Colzie both being top- ~10-15ish receivers nationally?
That, and there needs to be a drop-off at Bama/Clemson/OSU that opens a vacuum for ND both on and off the field.
That seems right, unfortunately. And that really is quite a lot.
My biggest takeaway from these articles has been that it’s really frustrating that Clemson seems so far ahead of us when we really haven’t recruited any worse than them at all.
Seriously? Number one most important position is QB and they recruited the number 12 and number 1 NFL draft picks in Watson and Lawrence, back to back. Both of whom won national championships at Clemson. Where it really counts, we’re woefully behind. Same with WRs.
The results at QB and WR are woefully behind. The star ratings of the players when they were recruited are not, as seen in this article. Gunner Kiel was rated better than Deshaun Watson, for instance. How much fault ND bears for some of the guys covered in this article not panning out is up for debate, of course.
Yeah, it almost seems like to an extent some misfortune is to blame. Possibly player development. But sometimes a good hand loses in poker, doesn’t always work out like you hope or might presume. Overall the data from these articles shows that Notre Dame’s current recruiting, as far as what the services say, is pretty on par with how Clemson built to the level they’re are across the board. Honestly, I was impressed and surprised that ND held up so well among many different positions.
…But they haven’t hit at QB yet. If Kiel or Wimbush ended up being Notre Dame’s Deshaun Watson and Phil Jurkovec ended up being the Lawrence to follow him, Notre Dame is on a way different plane right now. But we all know it didn’t work out like that. Even if in a parallel universe the recruiting rankings suggest ND was *that close* to getting their program changers. Cruel world.
I think in large part the recruiting rankings area a crapshoot. Saban says he doesn’t pay attention to them. My brother, who coached with him, confirms that.
I don’t have actual data, but my gut instinct is that a ton of 3 stars excel to the upside and a high percentage of 5 stars under achieve. That’s surely been true with ND’s 5 star recruits for quite a while.