So, that was an interesting offseason huh? 

Even before the seeming dissolution of the Pac-Whatever as a power conference, I was thinking during this spring and summer about how to approach this column going into 2023. Based on seeing the title, you can see I decided to change the title from Group of 5 to Mid Major. I stole it from college basketball terminology, but it seems to fit in this context too. The B1G and SEC trying to grab teams to make bigger, bloated conferences, and the ACC and Big 12 trying to keep things together.

But, that’s not the sole reason we are here today. We wanted to talk about the new look of mid majors and how we are going to attack their games this season. It was decided that instead of a major breakdown, there will be a focus on the three big things coming away from the weekend, before previewing key games of the week. This week, we’re going to expand the questions to five as we look at the Mid Major landscape as a whole and some of the big questions going into this season. But, first, let’s look at the Top Ten going into the season.

Also Considered: Toledo, Marshall,  Air Force

There was a time where I would have considered Ohio for this Top Ten. However, after their loss to San Diego State on Saturday dropped them out of the also considered teams. I am still high on the Bobcats (with Kurtis Rourke healthy) but not winning here puts their chances to sneak into this list down. Let’s dive into the major questions for each mid major conference.

American: Are They Still Top Dogs for NY6?

QB Michael Pratt looks to lead Tulane to back to back conference championships.

Before the 2022 season, UCF, Houston and Cincinnati were responsible for five of six New Year’s Six invites from this conference. They are no longer members of the American, climbing the ladder up to the Big 12. Memphis, the other team to make a NY6 bowl for the American, has struggled since its lone berth. Due to this development, eyes fall on the reigning champion and Cotton Bowl winner, Tulane. 

The Wave bring back most of their defense and their starting QB Michael Pratt. Tajaye Spears going to the NFL will hurt the offense, but Tulane should be set up for success in the new version of the American. The new version of the American includes the two time reigning CUSA champion UTSA. Jeff Traylor and Frank Harris look to arrive on the scene and continue their ascent in the college football world. Their team structure and star in Harris provide the biggest hurdle for Tulane, even to the point of them cracking the Top 20 on this site.

With the departure of the top dogs of the conference, it opens the doors for the next level of previous American teams to step up to top contender status. SMU, Memphis, and to a lesser extent East Carolina have chances to step up. Coming from CUSA, North Texas and Florida Atlantic both have chances for fresh starts and use their talent to step up and make some noise.

Mountain West: Does No Divisions Hurt or Help Boise?

Dynamo QB Taylen Green Looks to Bring the Broncos back on top in his first full season.

Boise State has made four of the last five Mountain West Conference Championship Games. This question seems to be a self explanatory one for the Broncos. However, the dissolution of divisions in the Mountain West makes things very interesting for the Broncos. There have been a couple of those seasons where getting into the championship game would have been dicey. The West Division has had some top heavy years with Fresno St and SDSU making noise. Boise hasn’t had a consistent competitor to deal with in their division. Air Force is the closest team, but never made any true attempts to knock off the Broncos on a consistent basis.

This year is the beginning of the change. There is more chaos that can be involved. As we saw last year with the American, it can come down to winning or losing the last game of the season that can change your fate. Who does Boise State play in their final regular season game you may be asking yourself? Well, it is indeed the Air Force Falcons in an early kickoff on CBS on Black Friday. Could be a game to watch out for when November rolls around.

Sun Belt: Has The Power Full Shifted to the West?

Troy HC Jon Sumrall looks to build off the momentum the reigning Sun Belt Champs to 2023.

The conversation in football circles this time last year were talking about the strength of the Sun Belt East. App State, Coastal Carolina, Marshall coming in. You could even see signs of progress in Georgia State and Georgia Southern to be potential chaos agents in that side of the conference. However, with the influx of teams last season, one major change made the biggest change. That was Troy swapping divisions.

The Alabama based team, due to the influx of east coast teams, moved over to the Sun Belt West, which was dominated by Billy Napier’s Louisiana squads. Last season was a bunch of uncertainty for that side. Could Louisiana maintain their momentum despite losing players and staff to Florida? Would South Alabama make a leap up? Could Butch Jones figure it out in Arkansas St? However, it went down to a Troy-South Alabama showdown down the stretch that was the most fun race that not a lot of college football fans were covering. This year should be more of the same, as Coastal Carolina looks to be in flux with Jamey Chadwell moving on to Liberty. 

The winner of South Alabama and Troy could decide the conference.**

**This is of course noting that we need to figure out a way to get James Madison into the Championship Game they deserve and nothing is certain until they can rightfully get there.

MAC: Can Toledo Maintain Their Spot?

No MAC team has won consecutive championship games since Northern Illinois in 2010-11.

If there is one league that can recreate parity that the NFL wants to have, its the MAC. The lone conference to stand pat the past three years of conference realignment, the regionality helps its case. These teams are taking on players that are passed over by the big schools (either through recruiting or the portal). That’s what makes Toledo’s chance this year interesting.

The Rockets boast probably the best overall team in the conference, but Jason Candle’s squads have always had a hint of disappointment up until 2022. They almost knocked off Notre Dame in 2021. They almost knocked San Diego State in 2022. Even down the stretch, they clinched their spot in Detroit, and then went on to lose two close games to far inferior teams.

This is all to say, that the league seems to be more open for them this season. They don’t play Ohio across divisions. They get Buffalo and Eastern Michigan (the probable next tier of MAC teams) at home. Other than Illinois, the rest of their games seem manageable. With Candle’s hot seat less warm after the 2022 campaign, it should be a team to watch and see if momentum is built to a point of national relevance.

CUSA: Who Are the Power Players?

Jacksonville State punctuated their move to D1 with a 17-14 win vs UTEP.

Finally, we get to the Frankenstein of all of FBS conferences. The lifeboat of the FBS’ lower division starts up this season. The smart money for who will step up relies on one of two answers: Western Kentucky or Liberty. 

The Hilltoppers, the incumbent in this now hypothetical election, finally seems to have some consistency on offense for the first time in a couple of years. Austin Reed returns to lead the offense that got better as the year went along. They should be the frontrunner for the conference with a manageable (besides a trip to Columbus) schedule. Liberty, on the other hand, finally found a conference home after years of throwing money at their football program to sportswash their university. They bring in Jamey Chadwell, who looks to bring some consistent offense that worked so well for him at Coastal. It may take a season or two for Chadwell to get his players in his system, but they could easily be the kings of this conference as long as they are there.

This says nothing of the other newcomers. Jacksonville State won their first game in FBS this past Saturday against UTEP. Led by Rich Rodriguez, this will be an interesting team to monitor over the course of the season. If James Madison could do it, why not a team that has knocked off Power 5 teams in the past couple of years?

Game Previews

For the games this upcoming week, we’re going to use a thing I’m calling Three and Out. I’m going to use three sentences or fewer to preview the game. It should work on two levels; brevity and giving you exactly what you need to know each week. Let’s dive into the games.

UTSA @ Houston: Two passing ships in the night. Favorite Texas rivalry. You Heard Me.

South Alabama @ Tulane: THE Primetime event of Week 1. First Top Ten matchup of the season.

UMass @ Auburn: Wouldn’t it be funny? It won’t happen but imagine UMass winning.

Miami (OH) @ Miami (FL): The true rights of Miami is on the line.

Toledo @ Illinois: Illinois lost a lot on defense. Toledo may steal one?

Boise State @ Washington: Big Spot for Boise. Feels like they lose to Washington. We’ll see though!

Coastal Carolina @ UCLA: Grayson McCall in new offense? Against a Power 5 team? Intrigued.

Fresno State @ Purdue: Two Teams Breaking in new QBs.

That’s all I’ve got for you all this week! Hope you enjoy the full slate of games!