Undefeated teams are beginning to fall and Notre Dame remains unblemished and moving up our weekly poll. The same cannot be said for LSU, Oklahoma, and Kentucky. Things got so bad for the Sooners that they finally fired Mike Stoops as defensive coordinator.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | LAST WEEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 6-0 | 65-31 W vs. Arkansas |
| 2 | Clemson (+1) | 6-0 | 63-3 W vs. Wake Forest |
| 3 | Ohio State (+1) | 6-0 | 49-26 W vs. Indiana |
| 4 | Georgia (-2) | 6-0 | 41-13 W vs. Vanderbilt |
| 5 | Notre Dame (+1) | 6-0 | 45-23 W vs. Virginia Tech |
| 6 | West Virginia (+2) | 5-0 | 38-22 W vs. Kansas |
| 7 | UCF (+2) | 5-0 | 48-20 W vs. SMU |
| 8 | Washington (+3) | 5-1 | 31-24 W vs. UCLA |
| 9 | Penn State (+3) | 4-1 | Bye |
| 10 | LSU (-5) | 5-1 | 27-19 L vs. Florida |
| 11 | Michigan (+2) | 5-1 | 42-21 W vs. Maryland |
| 12 | Oklahoma (-5) | 5-1 | 48-45 L vs. Texas |
| 13 | Wisconsin (+2) | 4-1 | 41-24 W vs. Nebraska |
| 14 | Texas (+4) | 5-1 | 48-45 W vs. Oklahoma |
| 15 | Florida (+5) | 5-1 | 27-19 W vs. LSU |
| 16 | Miami (+1) | 5-1 | 28-27 W vs. FSU |
| 17 | Colorado (NR) | 5-0 | 28-21 W vs. Arizona St. |
| 18 | Washington St. (NR) | 5-1 | 56-37 W vs. Oregon St. |
| 19 | Auburn (-9) | 4-2 | 23-9 L vs. Miss. State |
| 20 | Appalachian St. (NR) | 3-1 | Bye |
Out: Kentucky, Stanford, Michigan State
In: Colorado, Washington State, Appalachian State
Bill Connelly is now talking about a Big Five at the top of the rankings which is pretty cool. I moved Georgia back based on very little, just not feeling like they are operating as smoothly as the teams above them at the moment.
The 6-8 spots feel especially weak at this time, if any of those teams make a major bowl game I think their opponent will be very, very happy to meet them. Will the Irish be one of them?
I couldn’t put Texas above Oklahoma even though the Horns just beat them because losing to Maryland can’t be excused just yet. That’s one of the worst losses for anyone in the rankings.
Florida has beat 2 ranked teams in recent weeks (as Miss State jumps back into the AP Poll) and probably should be a bit higher even with the loss to Kentucky (who now drops out of the 18S poll). I would think that defeat to the Wildcats will continue to look worse.
I searched long and hard for the best resumes for 3 new teams in the rankings. Colorado has generally taken care of business with a weak schedule, Wazzu is creeping as Pac-12 play thickens, and the advanced stats love App State right now, they’ve absolutely obliterated 3 teams, and their overtime loss to Penn State still looks good.
Week 7 Games to Watch
Georgia (-7) at LSU – Man, this Tigers schedule is unrelenting. This will be the fourth ranked opponent of the season for LSU with 2 more, topped off with Alabama, coming in the next 2 weeks! On the other side, Georgia hasn’t faced a current ranked team and now lines up 4 straight ranked opponents! Life in the SEC can really suck. Bulldogs win 28-24.
*Game of the Week* Washington (-3) at Oregon – This is my top game because it will tell us a lot about the Pac-12 North and possibly if we can cross the conference off (again) from the playoff talk. Washington has done a whole lot of losing at Autzen in recent memory (except the last game against the worst Ducks team this generation) while Oregon has the quarterback to frustrate Kwiatkowski’s defense. Buckle up for a crazy Pac-12 North race. Ducks win 28-24.
Michigan State (+13.5) at Penn State – The Spartans are 3-2 with one Power 5 win and losses to Arizona State and Northwestern. Not great, so this line is fully justified. Their offense has also looked really bad against their best opponents. Also, not great. Nittany Lions win 30-13.
Wisconsin (+7.5) at Michigan – Did everyone catch Saturday night’s trivia during the game that Wisconsin has the most losses against Top 6 opponents in history? Michigan isn’t a top 6 opponents but the Badgers still struggle in big games. Jim Harbaugh also has been struggling in these games, too. Wolverines win 21-17.
Colorado (+7) at USC – The Buffs are ranked and getting a touchdown at the Coliseum. This could be quarterback Steven Montez’ Heisman breakout party (he’s 10th nationally in passer rating) it’s just we know so little about this Colorado team. If they win here it would be huge and opens the door to possibly an easier run to the division title. I still like USC, though. Trojans win 30-20.
Last Week:
4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Season:
32-15 SU, 22-25 ATS
Wait–LSU is FAVORED over UGA? Really?
Edit: I just checked and ESPN says UGA is a 7 point favorite (so, UGA -7).
I was bagging on Oklahoma the last couple weeks on here for their soft defense. My new hill to die on is Washington isn’t that good
High fives for team Oklahoma-wasn’t-ever-all-that-good.
Washington’s schedule has been a cakewalk so far (except for the game they lost) and they just struggled with a UCLA team that’s one of the worst in football. The trick is that they’ll be favored in the rest of their games as well, with their toughest remaining game being at Oregon this weekend favored by 3.
The game that they lost wasn’t all that hard, either.
I think Oregon will win that
I believe Washington is a nice, solid #15ish team. They aren’t going to beat any really good teams, but I don’t see Petersen letting them lose to a bad team either.
At this point for playoffs…
BIG 12: Boned. WVU is imperfect and will fall at some point. Also while good, Will Grier seems a bit over-hyped by the media. Oklahoma losing kills them, all their best teams have 1-2 losses (besides WVU) and still a lot of conference play to go to cannibalize even further.
ACC: Clemson or bust. And if Clemson busts with a loss they’re cooked, but their schedule is very favorable now.
Big 10: Ohio State is their ticket in, however if Michigan wins out and is 12-1, only loss to a good ND team, they’ve got to be in too. So in pretty good shape to send their champion.
PAC12: On life support needing Washington to win out. Even then, their loss is to what the 5th or 6th best SEC team? Might have handed their spot in the playoff over to the SEC runner up by doing that.
SEC: If Bama and Georgia win out in the reg season both have to be in great shape. But if UGA loses SEC do they get rematch in the 1v4 game? Seems unlikely. But would LSU get a rematch either?
Notre Dame: win and in. Stumble and out.
Call me crazy but my forecast has Clemson or ND (sadly) losing a game they should win and playoffs being..Bama, Big 10 Champ (OSU or UM), Clem OR ND, and a 2nd SEC team.
This thing really should be 8 teams already. Surely then the #9 and #10 teams would think they have a case but 5 power conferences and 4 spots is dumb. Then factor in UCF, ND, the fact the #2 and #3 SEC teams probably would win other conferences and it’s even worse
I despise the ever loving heck out of scUM…but I would be really interested in ND/scUM in the playoff
Especially if we got to play them with an improved offense and a defense that looks like it is just getting deeper by the game.
Are you talking ND or UM? The same could be said for both teams, I think.
I talk about scUM as little as possible, so yeah, I was referring to ND.
I’d be even more interested in them beating tOSU only to knock the B1G out of the playoff
That gets my vote
Yes, the best outcome would be for Michigan to win the rest of its games, knock out OSU, but come in no. 5 in the playoff calculation because it lost its first game to ND, while ND gets in. Yes. That would be nice.
Was just listening to ESPN’s CFB podcast, and they brought up the point that if Clemson loses to NC State, they won’t win their own division, so bye bye playoff for the ACC. (NC State is undefeated but very unlikely to finish that way, even if they beat Clemson). So GO WOLFPACK
If they somehow beat Clemson, their schedule is basically the same as ours the rest of the way, plus a conference championship against Miami/VT instead of USC. I think there’s next to no chance they beat Clemson, but if they do, FSU is the only team remaining on their schedule that they won’t be favored by more than 10 points against.
I have no idea how to rate WVU/Colorado/NC State (UCF is the reigning national champ so I’ll leave them out of this).
WVU tried to give the game away against Texas Tech, the only team they’ve played so far that’s even mediocre.
Colorado barely beat Nebraska, was only up 1 on UCLA at halftime, and didn’t look particularly impressive against Herm.
NC State tried to give the game away against BC, which might be the best victory any of these teams has? Either way, they too have played a pretty gross schedule and have really only beat down one team.
It’s a shame the WVU vs. NC State game got cancelled. I’m guessing WVU would have won handily, but that Tech game was just so pitiful down the stretch.
Anyway, go Knights!
Tier 1 wins: wins over the top 25 of the AP or S&P+. Tier 2 wins: wins over teams .500 or better in the S&P top 60.
1. Alabama – One tier one win (Texas A&M), one tier two win (Ole Miss)
2. Notre Dame – One tier one win (Michigan), two tier two wins (Stanford and Virginia Tech)
3. Ohio State – One tier one win (Penn State), one tier two win (TCU)
4. Clemson – One tier one win (Texas A&M), two tier two wins (Syracuse and Georgia Tech)
5. Georgia – One tier one win (Missouri), one tier two win (South Carolina)
6. NC State – Zero tier one wins, two tier two wins (Virginia and Boston College)
7. West Virginia – Zero tier one wins, one tier two win (Texas Tech)
8. Colorado – Zero tier one wins, one tier two win (Arizona State)
9. South Florida – Zero tier one wins, one tier two win (Georgia Tech)
10. LSU – Lost at Florida, two tier one wins (Miami and Auburn), one tier two win (Ole Miss)
Missing the cut – Undefeateds UCF and Cincinnati are both 0/0, with a little help from Memphis last weekend UCF has their first opportunity of the year to pick up a win over a top 60 S&P+ team this weekend, Cincinnati is off this weekend and if Temple can beat Navy this weekend they’ll have their first shot at a top 60 team in two weeks. UK, 2/1, Florida 2/0, and Texas 1/2 are your next three one loss teams knocking on the door of the top 10. One loss teams Penn State 1/0, Washington 0/2, Michigan 0/1, Oklahoma 0/0, and Miami 0/0 all need to beat some good teams to move up.
Nice work!
Awesome! This is similar to how i do my own CFP rankings. Although i wait until at least week 7 and then list the 5 best wins (by F/+) as well as any losses. There is also a column for Quality Wins, being a win over a team in my own top 25, and wins against teams over .500
This led me to wonder: what is the darkest 11-1 timeline? Notwithstanding that it’s our hardest game and that we might be getting lined up to get murdered by Bama, I think it would be a huge gutpunch to lose to USC with a playoff birth on the line. BUT: losing to Pitt, Navy, Northwestern, and FSU would super suck too. Really, Cuse is by far the L to pick if you have to pick one, IMO.
Darkest timeline is Cam McDanieling Northwestern again and having every Medill grad on ESPN dumping on ND nonstop for a week.
Ouch. That needed a trigger warning.
Heh… This is such an ND fan question. 🙂
I would say either Navy or USC would be the most gut-punchy, Navy due to the series history (both ancient and recent) and USC due to the playoff-derailing loss to a blood rival.