The past several seasons have provided Irish fans with exposure to every ACC team, but for 2020 that gets to be taken to an entirely new level. Advanced stat projections agree with the ironic storyline that Notre Dame joining a conference for a season has actually eased their strength of schedule. Would that have been true in a year where Clemson wasn’t already on the books? Maybe not, but here we are, and it’s no doubt helped Brian Kelly’s playoff chances when combined with a reduced field of teams in this wild season.

Going in order of the current Notre Dame schedule, below we’ll explore each opponent’s SP+ rating, win probability per SP+ and ESPN’s FPI, and projected offensive and defensive ranks (using all 130 FBS teams, if you take out those not playing everyone gets disoriented). Following that overview will be the factors weighing into each projection that makes SP+ optimistic and pessimistic about each team, and what advanced stats don’t know. If lost, check out this handy advanced stats glossary!

One shadow hanging over everything is that SP+ and other advanced rating systems, that like everything else in 2020, will be challenged by COVID. These projection systems don’t adjust for key absences (if players are quarantined or injured) or sequencing of games (say a player is suspended or misses the first half – it will take a while to recalibrate the new performance of the team). One of the most valuable components of advanced stats in college football is adjusting for the quality of the opponent. But with so few interconference games this season will be more like several bubbles of teams than normal. So advanced metrics will be very good sorting the best teams within a given conference, but not as good rating SEC vs ACC vs Big 12 or G5 teams.

Duke

What advanced stats like: an extremely solid defense

Extremely quietly, Duke’s average Defensive SP+ rating over the past five years is 38th. They finished top 40 in defensive SP+ and FEI a year ago, where you may remember it took a lot of Ian Book’s legs to get the offense going in what became a runaway win. That solid defense returns their top defensive backs and edge rushers, including all-ACC DE Chris Rumph, which is a pretty good formula. It’s extremely likely this is a top-40 defense again with top-25 upside

What advanced stats don’t like: gross offense unless there’s Cutcliffe-Brice magic

The Blue Devil offense finished 112th in Offensive SP+ a season ago after losing Daniel Jones, and aren’t projected to improve substantially. David Cutcliffe’s crew is young at receiver after losing two grad transfers this offseason, and they’ll be getting targets from a QB new to the program or without much experience. Clemson transfer Chase Brice is the presumptive favorite to start, but with COVID wreaking havoc has had seemingly little time to onboard and build chemistry with a new group.

Junior Chris Katrenick, the most experienced returning option, has completed 8 passes in his career. Last season the Blue Devil offense struggled to manufacture explosiveness or efficiency, and the best hope is that Cutcliffe can pull the best from Brice and find some under the radar threats at receiver to complement Jackson.

What advanced stats don’t know: Both teams could be extremely rusty in the opener

Uncertainty, flexibility, and adaptation will be critical in every game in this bizarre season. It’s easy to envision a slow start in this opener as both teams have had significantly less time practicing and scrimmaging together in the last nine months than usual. With two solid defenses that have strong continuity, the best hope for Duke is this turns into a rock fight and stays close as long as possible as both teams wear off the rust and adjust to a strange environment that will be the new normal with around 20% capacity in Notre Dame stadium.

USF

What advanced stats like: another solid but not spectacular defense

The first two Notre Dame opponents profile very similarly – good defense, especially for the talent level, with key pieces returning, offset by offenses that were very bad last year and are in flux to begin 2020. Charlie Strong’s final defense in Tampa was well-rounded and solid rushing the passer. By weighted average USF has top-40 returning production on a unit the was top 50-60 a year ago, and that should ensure a good baseline degree of competence. The unknown variable is how new DC Glenn Spencer (formerly of FAU and Oklahoma State) will be able to do with what he inherits from Strong.

What advanced stats don’t like: an awful offense last year

Coming off a finish of 110th in Offensive SP+, a nice bounceback under new head coach and former Clemson offensive coordinator Jeff Scott might be getting into what would be the 70s or 80s in a normal season? The following is a list of categories where South Florida was 100th or worse in FBS in 2019: overall explosiveness, points per scoring opportunity, passing down success, passing overall, and sack rate allowed. If you didn’t figure it out from that list, the passing game was extremely weak, with the only cheery spots coming from decent run blocking and a modicum of efficiency on the ground.

What advanced stats don’t know: the offense has room to grow

The positive spin on the Bulls is that the offense can’t get much worse, and the new brain trust of Scott and Charlie Weis Jr. figure to be a massive upgrade. They’ve tried to patch up weaknesses like the offensive line with a slew of transfers, have some athletic options at QB to play with, and have talented options like scatback Johnny Ford returning from injury (which projection systems aren’t taking into account). South Florida shouldn’t threaten the Irish barring a return of lightning storms with UFOs, but there could be a resemblance to the Louisville game last season where a new staff catches the defense a little off guard to begin the game.

Wake Forest

What advanced stats like: Dave Clawson, returning defense

SP+ historically looks at three main categories to form preseason projections – recruiting, recent performance (past 5-years, weighted for recency), and returning production. While Wake Forest’s 5-year trend isn’t foreshadowing the next ACC power, they’ve been conference average over Dave Clawson’s tenure, which is impressive given the recruiting dynamic in Winston Salem and situation he inherited.

The defense, which has been brutal since Mike Elko and Clark Lea’s departure, steadied a bit last season and finished 52nd in FEI / 69th in SP+. They return enough key pieces on defense, with a potential early round draft pick in Carlos Basham, for advanced stats systems to consider the defense ok. Which is a strength compared to the other side of the ball!

What advanced stats don’t like: another offense in trouble

Do you sense a theme here? It’s an ideal start to the season for Clark Lea. Wake Forest had a hot start offensively in 2019 that was derailed by injuries, ending to a finish at 61st in Offensive SP+. Jamie Newman grad transferred to UGA, and the Demon Deacs two 1,000 yard receivers are both gone (Kendall Hinton to the draft in April, Chazz Surratt opting out of this season to prepare for the ’21 draft).

Irish fans may remember QB Sam Hartman, who was bludgeoned in 2018 but brings starting experience. He inherits the job again losing his top five receivers, top rusher, and 28 career starts on the offensive line. The offense was 125th in returning offense production and is projected to finish 99th in SP+.

What advanced stats don’t know: where will Wake be entering this game?

This was already going to be a challenging season for Clawson with so much turnover, and now the Demon Deacons open with Clemson and at NC State, which may be a toss-up. After all the stress of this offseason – no spring ball, limited workouts and practice, trying to safely quarantine – how will teams handle early adversity like a potential 0-2 start?

Florida State

What advanced stats like: talent, the defense returning a ton

Teams like Florida State and USC hardly ever bomb in the advanced stat projections; even when they go through lean times, those failed seasons are usually relative, and typically there’s plentiful blue chip talent to provide reason for optimism. While there’s been significant roster turnover, Mike Norvell still inherited a talented roster with 2017 and 2018 classes that were 6th and 11th in the 24/7 composite rankings.

Most of that current talent is concentrated on the defensive side of the ball, which has the 9th highest returning production. DT Marvin Wilson is a project Round 1 draft pick, and CB Asante Samuel Jr. and S Hamsah Nasirildeen are all-ACC talents. The linebacking corps has some question marks, and the pass rush hasn’t been great despite the presence of strong recruiting, but there’s a lot of reasons to expect growth.

What advanced stats don’t like: the defense wasn’t that good last year, limited offense ceiling

While the returning defense has both pedigree and experience, last year was ugly, as the Noles finished 61st in Defensive SP+. Former DC Harlon Barnett toggled between a 3-4 and 4-3 and the results were predictably ugly. The defense also wasn’t very disruptive, ranking 100th in havoc rate and 91st in run stuff rate. DC Adam Fuller came with Norvell to Tallahassee but has limited experience – just one year overseeing the Memphis defense and one at Marshall.

The offense should reap immediate benefits from adding Norvell, but the raw materials still need some work. James Blackman seems set to start again but has a penchant for turnovers, so it’s not quite a lock despite his experience. The offensive line woes continue to plague FSU – last season the Noles were again 100th or worse in sack rate allowed and line yards created. The Noles will have weapons, especially big-play WR Tamorrion Terry, but there isn’t a clear path to a top-20 offense or defense.

What advanced stats don’t know: fresh coaching blood should help (eventually)

Based on his success at Memphis, Norvell seems to be a clear upgrade from Willie Taggart and instantly inject some jet fuel into the offense. The cupboard is far from bare, and the Noles showed flashes of competence over the past few seasons on both sides of the ball but never the same time.

At the same time, Norvell’s short time as HC has already generated some early drama with Florida State players and parents speaking up at different points this offseason to voice their displeasure. With an entirely new staff, how operational will the new offense be in Week 4?

Louisville

What advanced stats like: an overhauled offense that will be extremely dangerous

If Irish fans only watched Louisville in last year’s opening game, they were probably impressed by Scott Satterfield but skeptical the offense would do much without a better QB. Jawon Pass struggled to do much through the air, and was replaced midseason by Micale Cunningham, who excelled. He barely missed qualifying for national leaderboards with fewer than 200 pass attempts, but would have been 2nd nationally in passer rating and first in yards per attempt if qualified. He also chipped in nearly 500 yards on the ground despite not starting the first two games of the season.

Tutu Atwell and his 1,200 receiving yards paired with 1,500-yard rusher Javian Hawkins means the skill positions are loaded too. The Cards overall return the 21st most in FBS returning offensive production, but the one question mark is the offensive line. They’ll replace three starters, including stud Mekhi Becton, from a unit that allowed a ton of stuffed runs and sacks in 2019.

What advanced stats don’t like: the defense is still a weakness

Satterfield’s team returns nearly the same amount of production on both sides of the ball. The trouble is the offense finished 29th last season in SP+ and the defense 100th. The linebacking corps all returns, but there’s a long way to go between last season’s performance and respectability. The rebuild post-Petrino may have started faster than expected, but the holes from the Van Gorder year may prove harder to fill and SP+ projects them 84th.

What advanced stats don’t know: will the offense perform against quality defenses?

As mentioned above, Cunningham was spectacular when he took over as a starter. But the performances were mostly on limited pass attempts – he threw more than 20 times in a game just twice – and against bad defenses. Mixed into some extremely efficient performances was a 78-yard passing day at Kentucky and 4-of-11 versus Clemson. He connected on a long bomb to Atwell at Miami but mostly piled up garbage time stats in a 52-27 loss.

It’s an extremely talented group with arguably the second-best QB/RB/WR trio in the ACC after Clemson. But with potential weakness remaining at offensive line, it’s an open question if the group can string together enough drives and explosive plays to pull off a big win.

Pittsburgh

What advanced stats like: the defense is borderline ELITE

The Panthers 2019 defense is a good example of stuff happening that projection systems can’t predict, which is half the fun of this chaotic sport. Despite Pat Narduzzi’s reputation, the Pitt defense had ranged from average (48th at best) to bad (75th) over the past three years. Then last fall with a fairly young and average (by recruiting rankings) talent level on defense, Pitt surged to 12th in Defensive SP+.

There wasn’t anything fluky about the performance – Pitt was 4th in yards per play, 4th in opponent success rate, and top-15 in both run and pass defense. The Panthers defensive line was monstrous, finished first nationally in sacks per game and 9th in TFL per game. DL Jalen Twyman opted out, but the returning pieces have SP+ projecting the defense 7th nationally.

What advanced stats don’t like: the offense can’t hang

Pitt finished 109th in Offensive SP+ last year, and that was with NFL pick Maurice Ffrench on the roster. They return a veteran starter in Kenny Pickett, which may or may not be a good thing – in ACC play he had nine touchdowns and eight picks. This was despite the Panthers airing the ball out a good amount with just over 40 attempts per game. In expected points added per play, a holistic measure of rushing and passing success, the Panthers were in the bottom 20 in both passing and rushing.

There is continuity here, with four returning linemen, Pickett, and wide receiver Taysir Mack. But SP+ still projects Pitt 101st on offense, and if Pickett isn’t more productive out of the gate there could be other QB options explored by the Notre Dame game.

What advanced stats don’t know: Pitt is chaos incarnate

While the great defense paired with a shaky offense may lead to Pitt just being a league-average ACC opponent, the Panthers are probably the frisky team every contender wants to avoid. Everyone reading this is very familiar with Pitt’s penchant for upsets and close calls. The 2012 and 2018 Irish teams that went undefeated in the regular season won their two games against the Panthers by a total of eight points. Weird things could happen in this game on the road and coming off two of the trickier contests on the schedule, but hopefully, Narduzzi throws it back to his strategy of single-covering guys with the world-class speed with Braden Lenzy

Georgia Tech

What advanced stats like: the defense was alright last year and they are all back

In a massive transition year – as Bill Connelly framed it, the year zero of all year zeros – the Yellow Jackets defense wasn’t a disaster. They finished 71st in Defensive SP+ despite a depth chart littered with freshman and sophomores. It wasn’t a disruptive defense (103rd in havoc rate) but they fared ok on passing downs and limiting pass efficiency.

Tech then returns a staggering 94% of its weighted defensive production. In the transfer portal Geoff Collins has infused some blue chips talent like familiar face Derrik Allen and Florida DE Antonneus Clayton, a former top-30 national recruit. The defense is projected by SP+ to surge to 35th nationally, which feels overly optimistic, but it will certainly be the stronger side of the ball with the experienced combined with Collins defensive background.

What advanced stats don’t like: the struggle to reimagine the offense after the triple

The Bees finishing 117th last year in Offensive SP+ was predictable in the transition from Paul Johnson to a normal offense and program. Recruiting for the triple option means a lot of very specific traits that aren’t easily applied elsewhere, and PJ wasn’t exactly known as an ace recruiter to begin with. Tech struggled across the board and finished 93rd in run success rate and 126th in passing success rate.

What advanced stats don’t know: how well transfers can fill holes

SP+ does incorporate transfers into projections but in a quick and dirty way. It essentially copies and pastes stats from the previous school into the returning production for the new one – an inexact science that is better than nothing but probably understates high caliber transfers at positions like QB.

Georgia Tech has taken advantage of the program overhaul to bring in fresh new blood – in addition to the defenders listed above, there are two SEC grad transfers on the offensive line and a wide receiver from Miami. Can the transfer group jumpstart the rebuild, or in a season with little time to acclimate will they struggle to make an impact?

Clemson

What advanced stats like: virtually everything

There’s no breaking news here – the Tigers have been a top-2 program for the last five seasons, return the favorite for the top pick in next year’s NFL draft, and have the best defensive coordinator in college football. In recruiting Dabo Swinney has surged Clemson into the top tier with Alabama and Ohio State, so even in a year where there are significant losses, the Tigers have just reloaded.

Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence is just an unfair duo. It was surprised Etienne opted to return for his senior year coming off a historically great year in terms of explosiveness and breaking tackles. His workloads have been very balanced over his career, so there’s no reason to expect him to slow down. While Lawrence wasn’t perfect last season, he still possesses some generational tools and now finally properly respected as an athlete after his long TD run against Ohio State in the CFP. His legs can be a factor in big games, and the Tigers at 4th in projected SP+ actually feels a little low.

What advanced stats don’t like: While they’ll likely reload, the Tigers lost a ton

Clemson is 104th in returning defensive production, with multiple first round picks departing and former top-10 composite DE Xavier Thomas sitting out the year. Venables group was 4th in Defensive SP+ last season and slides down to 12th in the 2020 projections as a result, which seems a little far given his track record.

Offensively, the returns of Lawrence and Etienne have overshadowed the departure of four starters on the O-line. Tee Higgins is playing on Sundays and Justyn Ross unexpectedly will miss the year after discovering a spinal injury that could threaten his career. Add in co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott leaving and that’s a lot of change and weight that gets added to the two superstars shoulders.

Things will probably be fine though, as at Clemson there are only first-world problems. Amari Rodgers gives Lawrence an experienced option, and the replacements for Higgins and Ross will likely be 6’3 sophomore Joe Ngata and Frank Ladson, both top-50ish composite recruits. Still, this matchup has become slightly more favorable for the Irish over the last few months with the significant pieces the Tigers have lost.

What advanced stats don’t know: if all goes well, these teams might play twice

The idea of a conference championship factoring into the schedule is new for Notre Dame. It gets debated every year the Irish are a playoff contender – does no 13th game help or hurt? Is it fair? It’s been (poorly) debated to death because the answer is that it depends. In the case of 2020 and purely looking at this preseason, it poses a challenge playing as an underdog twice against the Tigers. A split is the most likely statistical outcome, but depending on that sequencing of a win and a loss that could either cement a playoff berth for the Irish or take one away. Beating Clemson is also hard, and the chance that Notre Dame could lose twice against superior talent is also a dark but very possible outcome.

Boston College

What advanced stats like: offensive weapons to work with

Despite losing starting QB Anthony Brown to injury midway through 2019, the Eagles finished a respectable 44th in Offensive SP+. AJ Dillon is gone, but a high-quality offensive line returns for new OC Frank Cignetti (who hasn’t been in college for awhile!). David Bailey is a proven back, and there are big-play threats outside with Kobay White and Zay Flowers.

Of course, the big question will be Phil Jurkovec. There’s enough surrounding talent and competence that he may be able to ease into being the guy, using his legs and taking deep shots downfield. Even as a recruit Jurkovec had a reputation as more of a game-day player versus someone who would light up the camp circuit. Does a change of scenery unlock the best version of him?

What advanced stats don’t like: a defense in need of an overhaul

The BC defense plummeted to 110th last season in Defensive SP+ last season. The run defense was solid (33rd in run success rate allowed) but the passing defense was one of the worst in power five. Opponents had nearly a 50% success rate through the air and tons of explosive passes. Jeff Hafley takes over with a strong defensive mind, but it’s going to be a long-term project to rebuild the secondary and return to an above-average defense.

What advanced stats don’t know: Does the Phil J factor mean anything?

We already know that if healthy, the Jurkovec story will dominate the headlines and message boards. Will he be out for revenge? Does Clark Lea know exactly how to destroy him? It probably won’t matter, the Eagles aren’t very good, but this game has commonly been a struggle even when BC has been an inferior opponent.

UNC

UNC

What advanced stats like: a dangerous offense returns everything

Breaking: Sam Howell is really good, and so is OC Phil Longo, who Mack Brown stole from Ole Miss. Howell stole the headlines – which was justified, since true freshman don’t usually walk in and finish top 10 nationally in passer rating. But he had a lot of help – backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams were nearly a tandem with 1,000 yards on the ground each. Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome both had double-digit touchdown and over 1,000 yards through the air.

With all those guys back, it’s easy to then see why SP+ projects the Heels to build on last year’s 25th place Offensive SP+ performance and leap into the top 10. The one hindrance could be negative plays – UNC was 107th in sack rate allowed and 101st in stuff rate allowed. Clean up the negative plays and this is an offensive as scary as USC projected to be or better.

What advanced stats don’t like: the defense is improving but lagging behind

It seems like a lot very quickly for North Carolina to turn into an ACC title game contender, but good coordinator hires combined with a talent infusion and stud QB can do that. Defensive coordinator Jay Bateman was a steal from Army and in his first season took the UNC defense from 95th to 43rd in SP+ defense.

A lot of young guys played a role in the turnaround, but an overhaul will be needed in some key areas. On the defensive side, the Heels return far less (63rd in weighted returning production) than an offense, with new faces filling up the defensive line. The secondary lost three opt-outs to COVID, but returns four pieces that suffered season-ending injuries a year ago.

What advanced stats don’t know: can close-game luck reverse?

The Tar Heels went 3-6 last year in one-possession games, so they should expect some positive regression (and play fewer close games if improved). The six losses were by a combined 26 points, including a near-upset of Clemson. But Mack Brown’s game management may be a little suspect, and next year an extra close loss might be the difference between an ACC title game berth.

Syracuse

What advanced stats like: the pass defense was decent?

This is slim pickings, but Syracuse finished 58th in Passing EPA per play and 54th in opponent pass success rate. That concludes the positive things you can say about the Orange  – they are projected 93rd in SP+ with a defensive and offensive rating both 80th or worse.

The only other solace is that QB Tommy DeVito returns, who you may remember not having much fun in Yankee Stadium two years ago. He had a miserable 2019, but prior to that was seen as the QB of the future and Dino Babers was very high on him. So that’s something!

What advanced stats don’t like: a bad team loses a lot

The formula here is simple – poor performance last fall plus a lot of turnover equals a bad team the next year. After finishing a disappointing 77th in SP+ last year, the Orange are 106th in returning production, including the 121st returning defensive production. Devito returns but loses all of his top receivers. This would be a team struggling to make a bowl with a normal schedule, and with a 10-game ACC slate, it could get ugly.

What advanced stats don’t know: a Dino Babers offense shouldn’t be like this for long

Qualitatively, it’s an anomaly for a Babers offense to struggle like the Orange did. Even with a dismal offense, Syracuse did create some explosive plays (37th in pass explosiveness). It came without any efficiency on the ground or through the air, but the floor seems like it was reached. Overachieving SP+’s expectations of the 82nd best offense (normal year standards) seems like a good bet.

The Schedule & Projection

SP+ projects the Irish for 8.73 average wins in 11 games. Given an over/under around 9.5 wins, this seems a little bit light, but the Clemson and UNC games loom as huge potential swings. I’m also not convinced SP+ has a great handle on the Irish – it projects Notre Dame 10th offensively and 20th defensively, which I’d probably switch if projecting their quality.

Both units should be solid, but SP+ had a weird thing against last year’s ND defense, ranking it 22nd in Defensive SP+. Some of that may be justified – the Irish strengths defensively were in creating turnovers (not very stable year to year) and limiting explosiveness (hugely important, but less predictive year to year than efficiency). But other metrics like ESPN’s FPI and FEI have Clark Lea’s group 13th and 5th, respectively.

Let’s close with a quick ranking of the teams that should keep Irish fans up at night to the weeks you can probably stress-free DVR for later if needed:

  1. Clemson: An easy top choice with elite offensive weapons and a Brent Venables defense. Still, the Irish have possible edges in the trenches and the matchup has slighted shifted in Notre Dame’s favor with the losses of Justyn Ross and Xavier Thomas.
  2. UNC: An extremely talented team that poses matchup problems with Notre Dame’s defensive weakness at corner going against a dangerous QB-WR group. The offense has fewer potential weak spots than Louisville and the defense projects to be better than the Cardinals
  3. Louisville: Micale Cunningham is extremely scary too, as is Tutu Atwell and Javian Hawkins. There’s just a bigger potential weakness on the offensive line and the Louisville defense was still a mess in 2019 and has a bigger gap to feel relative to the Heels.
  4. Pittsburgh: On paper, the Noles should be the pick here, but you just know weird stuff will happen against the Panthers. The defense can make this a grind-it-out affair, and if the offense can be just average for a night this isn’t a slam dunk. Pitt has one elite unit, FSU has none.
  5. FSU: Most ND opponents have a significant weakness on one side of the ball, and there’s a chance in Mike Norvell’s first year Florida State can be good on both. The defense has top-end talent on the defensive line and in the secondary but has to transition back to a 4-3. The offense will be improved with Norvell but the upside seems limited at QB with Blackman and the offensive line will be overwhelmed by strong defenses.
  6. Boston College: There’s a massive gap between the 5th and 6th spots here, but I think the Eagles have the most upside. The offense can be very solid with the offensive line returning, Jurkovec’s legs, and some explosive but unproven receivers. The defense was a dumpster fire last year but maybe Jeff Hafley can have a Scott Satterfield-like impact in Year 1.
  7. Duke: The Blue Devil defense, especially if they can force passing situations, is legitimate. The offense lacks skill position threats but Chase Brice gives a reason for hope at QB and a David Cutcliffe offense shouldn’t be as bad as it was in 2019.
  8. Georgia Tech: It’s hard to buy the Yellow Jackets as a quality defense just yet, but there’s more potential for them to get things together than the teams below. It’s also an opportunistic spot in Atlanta the week before the massive Clemson game.
  9. Wake Forest: These last three opponents are possibly their own tier at the bottom. You can order them any way you’d like, but putting the Demon Deacons here is a tribute to Dave Clawson and his ability to figure things out and rebuild.
  10. South Florida: There’s a possibility that Jeff Scott goes mad scientist and builds a dangerous offense from spare parts, and the defense could be ok. But this should pretty easily be a 20+ point win, especially early in the season before Scott is able to fully implement new things.
  11. Syracuse: Not a thing about the Orange projects to be any good unless Dino Babers can pull off a massive turnaround with DeVito. This was a bad team last season that loses a ton, and late in a taxing season, they won’t have much to play for.