As we’ve continued to rack up markers on the chaotic demon bingo board that has been 2020, college football sometimes felt like an impossible dream. Yet here we stand, on the eve of a season destined to be odd but also an honest-to-God season. Stadiums will operate at 20% capacity. Tailgating is verboten at most venues. Players will mysteriously vanish from the lineup. Coaches have eschewed press conferences for Zoom webinars. Sideline personnel will wear face coverings. It won’t be normal by any means, but it will be a piece of normal that returns to us in a year that has been anything but. I don’t know about you, but I’ll happily take as many little pieces of normal as I can right now.


Uh oh…

Clearly the specter of the COVID-19 pandemic looms over everything. The Big Ten and Pac 12 have already postponed/canceled their seasons, with the Big Ten currently mired in internecine strife over whether to restart (and looking more fractured and incoherent by the day). The ACC has moved to a ten-game, one-division conference schedule with one out-of-conference game allowed if played in an ACC state – and very notably, has admitted Notre Dame as a one-time member in a highly symbiotic arrangement. The SEC has moved to a ten-game conference-only schedule. The Big 12 has maintained their nine-game conference round robin and allowed one out-of-conference game in a Big 12 state, but they’ve already had a couple of early out-of-conference games postponed due to COVID outbreaks on one side or the other. Along those lines, the threat of spread and/or contact tracing taking out chunks of a team, as it has during camp for several schools, will be a presence throughout this season.

On the doorstep of the season, though, it feels like we should be optimistic. There’s a lot out there, in the sports world and beyond, to bring us down. Let’s take this gift we have now and just enjoy it, and allow our minds to wander to what could be during this most unusual season. Why not? We’re here, playing the demon bingo game with house money. Let’s have some fun. Beelzebub doesn’t win every bet, after all.


Sorry, Ned.

How about some actual football talk, then? This year’s edition of the Fighting Irish boasts experience at some very key spots; it’s rock solid at quarterback, on both lines, and up the middle on defense. Ian Book enters this season with 23 career starts, a level of experience not seen in an Irish signal caller since Jimmy Clausen in 2009. Injuries have messed with continuity a bit, but four of the five offensive linemen have essentially been co-starters for two years, the fifth started all 13 games last year, and a key reserve added five starts last season. The starting defensive line is loaded with experienced talent and has legitimate, game-ready players throughout the second and third string to allow a heavy rotation. The middle linebacker is an underappreciated tackle machine while the rover is a game-wrecker who is garnering first round attention in mock drafts. The safeties are both exceptional ball hawks, and one has a shot at being the Irish’s best defender since… ???

There are, of course, question marks. What, did you think we were Alabama? Running back and wide receiver are replete with promise but nearly bereft of certainty. A reshaped Kyren Williams and precocious Chris Tyree top the depth chart and hold tremendous potential, but between them they have 5 career touches for 29 yards. That the more experienced veterans – Jafar Armstrong, C’Bo Flemister, and Jahmir Smith, who have combined for 244 touches, 1,158 yards, and 15 touchdowns – all fell behind them is intriguing and also somewhat concerning. Someday star Kevin Austin broke his foot early in camp and is expected to be out until midseason, leaving the receiver corps with possession guys and speed guys but nobody who is a combination of both. Will someone emerge? Will the mix be good enough as it is? Buck linebacker and both cornerback spots will lean on new faces or lean much more heavily on old faces. How will that shake out?

The silver lining for all those questions is that the schedule, ironically enough for the “Notre Dame should test itself in a conference” crowd, looks much softer than usual and includes a relatively gentle run-up in the first month of the season. The Irish open with preseason SP+ #71 Duke and #78 South Florida at home, then #88 Wake Forest on the road. They then face a month of decent teams in #27 Florida State (feels high, but we’ll see) and #41 Louisville at home followed by #40 Pitt and #54 Georgia Tech on the road. Then the gargantuan-if-it-happens matchup with #3 Clemson in South Bend (in November!) and a closing stretch of #67 Boston College and #18 North Carolina on the road and #87 Syracuse at home. The Irish will have some time early to settle some of the question marks and, as it stands now, likely get Austin back sometime during the run of decent teams before Clemson.

So… I have just one question for all of you.

Big Picture Stuff

What will Notre Dame’s 2020 regular season record be?

  • 11-0 – 9%
  • 10-1 – 58%
  • 9-2 – 29%
  • 8-3 – 2%
  • 7-4 – 2%

In 2017, 28% of you picked 10-2 or better; in 2018, that increased to 62%; in 2019, it climbed to an impressive 83%. I don’t quite know how to fairly compare those to this year, with its eleven game schedule and single marquee opponent. A two-loss season is a little different this year, but nonetheless, 96% of you have tabbed two losses or fewer. I’m guessing almost everyone who predicts an imperfect record included a loss to Clemson as one of the blemishes, which means that around 67% of you think we’ll win all of the other 10 games. No pressure, Brian.

The staff is similarly bullish, for what it’s worth, with 14% choosing 11-0, 72% 10-1, and 14% 9-2.

What’s your biggest concern heading into the season?

  • Passing game explosiveness – 28%
  • Run game consistency – 28%
  • Cornerbacks – 17%
  • COVID-related issues – 5%
  • Run game explosiveness – 6%
  • Tommy Rees – 5%
  • Defensive leadership (players) – 3%
  • Offensive line play – 2%
  • Brian Kelly – 2%
  • Special teams – 2%
  • Big-game faceplants – 1%
  • Pass rush – 1%
  • Player cohesion – 1%
  • Clemson – 1%
  • False starts – <1%

Interestingly, there’s more than twice as much concern about run game consistency this year as last year (28% vs. 11%) but about half as much concern about run game explosiveness (6% vs. 10%). Hmm. Hype, thy name is Tyree… Cornerbacks were a major concern for you and for the staff as well. In hindsight, I should’ve added COVID as an option, given how many of you wrote in something related to it. Duh. I’m mentally revisiting the even-line O/U win fiasco of 2018, and it’s not fun… Future NDHC Tommy Rees registered much lower on the concern-o-meter than I expected. Are we sleeping on the danger there, or did the Iowa State game do enough to soothe us?

Passing ESPLOSIVA was the staff’s top concern, with running ESPLOSIVA and cornerbacks tied for second. The only other staff concerns noted, each via a single vote, were COVID-related concerns and “pessimists” (which has to have come from a Rigney).

Will Notre Dame win the ACC?

  • Yes, period – 17%
  • Yes, if they avoid Clemson in the title game – 40%
  • No – 43%

Given the landscape of the ACC in this strangest of years, this question very nearly boils down to “do you think Notre Dame can beat Clemson twice.” Kudos to the brave souls constituting the 17% who believe that to be true… For my part, I voted yes if they avoid Clemson in the title game. It’s going to be so incredibly hard to beat them twice, and if we lose only to them and rematch in the title game I think it’ll be hard to shake the first loss. Who knows, though? Perhaps the ACC trophy could take its place in the JACC next to the Big Ten hockey trophy. The staff voted fairly similarly, with 7% saying yes, 43% yes if they avoid Clemson, and 50% saying no.

We were discussing scenarios in which Notre Dame could go 11-0 or 10-1 and a 10-1 Clemson could miss the ACC title game in the writers’ room the other day. There are four ACC teams that don’t play Clemson: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, and NC State. NC State is the only ACC team that plays neither Notre Dame nor Clemson this season (man, did they catch a break). Given that, here are the most probable (or really least unlikely) scenarios:

  1. Notre Dame and NC State both run the table on the conference schedule.
  2. Notre Dame runs the table and one of Duke/Louisville/North Carolina/NC State finishes with one loss and has a better “best conference win” than Clemson.
  3. Notre Dame beats Clemson in the regular season and loses to one of Duke/Louisville/North Carolina; that team then finishes with no more than one conference loss.

The ACC three-way tiebreaker works by essentially dropping the team that has the weakest best win – i.e. the lowest conference win percentage for that team’s best win. It’s actually more involved than that normally, but with the single division setup this year a lot of normal provisions are irrelevant and that’s what we’re left with. #1 is a two-way tie, obviously. In #2, we would see a beauty contest between Clemson’s best win (Miami? Pitt?) and whoever’s best win; if those are the same, they would move to whoever ranks higher via a proprietary, unpublished team rating system from SportSource Analytics. That would almost certainly be Clemson, but hey, who knows. #3, ironically, would probably give the Irish the best chance of ducking the rematch; Duke/Louisville/North Carolina’s best win would be 10-1 Notre Dame, Notre Dame’s best win would be 10-1 Clemson, and Clemson’s best win could only be a 2-loss or worse team.

I’m not saying we should pull for a Notre Dame loss to those teams. I’m just saying.

Superlatives

Who will be Notre Dame’s offensive MVP?

  • Ian Book – 77%
  • Offensive line – 15%
  • Tommy Tremble – 2%
  • Braden Lenzy – 2%
  • Chris Tyree – 2%
  • Kyren Williams – 1%
  • RB1, ACC defenses, COVID – <1% (bunch of comedians in here)

Last year Book took 77% of the reader vote here, with Chase Claypool next at 15%. An up and down 2019 campaign apparently did little to dent anyone’s expectations for QB1. The offensive line, fittingly given the experience outlined above, came in second this year. If Book or the OL is actually the team MVP this year, I think it’s highly likely that the offense will have had a very good year. Also of note here is Chris Tyree checking in with the highest tally for a true freshman that we’ve seen in the four seasons we’ve been doing this.

The staff vote was 86% for Book, 7% for the offensive line, and 7% for Tyree.

Who will be Notre Dame’s defensive MVP?

  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – 61%
  • Kyle Hamilton – 36%
  • Daelin Hayes – 1%
  • Drew White – 1%
  • Daelin Hayes, Defensive line – <1%
  • ACC offenses – <1%

Wu and Hamilton both took a few votes last year despite never playing a snap. They both showed more than enough on the field to justify those votes, and accordingly are atop the ballot this year. I was a little surprised that JOK held such a commanding lead over Hamilton here, but then only one of them is being talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2021 NFL draft. NFL analysts have gushed over his ability for a while, so enjoy it while you can folks. And somebody here apparently thinks very, very little of the ACC at large.

The staff vote broke down similarly, with 61% tabbing Wu, 31% Hamilton, and 8% White.


Caption dude needs to fix his spelling.

Which unit will provide the play of the year?

  • Offense – 52%
  • Defense – 44%
  • Special Teams – 4%

Interesting here that the vote was even last year (48/48/4) but is tilted to the offense this year despite seemingly more question marks on offense, especially among the groups that produce most of the highlight plays. I tend to think that with Lenzy, Tyree, and later in the year hopefully Austin, there’s a pretty good chance the play of the year will come from that side. Then again, Kyle Hamilton (obviously). Tyree on kick returns and Lawrence Keys on punt returns offer a lot more dynamism than the Irish have had there for a while too, so keep an eye on that.

43% of the staff voted for offense and 57% for defense, so we’re of the opposite mind. (Clearly, a Rigney didn’t actually vote given that no ballot went to special teams.)

Who will lead the team in touchdowns from scrimmage?

  • Kyren Williams – 57%
  • Braden Lenzy – 13%
  • Ian Book – 12%
  • Chris Tyree – 7%
  • Tommy Tremble – 4%
  • C’Bo Flemister – 3%
  • Ben Skowronek – 2%
  • Jafar Armstrong – <1%

Yes, as I alluded to in the question itself, the team’s leading returning touchdown scorer is none other than C’Bo Flemister. He had five scores last year, one of which was part of my favorite line score of the year – against New Mexico, Flemister carried seven times for minus two yards and a score. Not easy to do. Book, Lenzy, Tremble, and Javon McKinley each had four touchdowns, Jahmir Smith and Avery Davis each had two, George Takacs had one, and Jafar Armstrong, who hit paydirt seven times in 2018, did so only once last year. Those are all returning offensive scorers for the Irish.

What I’m saying is, things should be pretty open this year. Flemister became something of a goal line specialist/vulture late last season, but I think Williams and Tyree can run between the tackles well enough to still be in on short yardage situations. None of the other backs seem likely to suddenly seize an unquestioned role. Austin would be the clear favorite if he didn’t have to miss half the season, but he does, so those touches are available to others. Should be fun to watch things develop! The staff also pinned its hopes on Williams, with 57% of the vote, while Tyree showed stronger for us with 21%, then Lenzy with 14%, then Book with 7%.

Bonus O/U: That leader will have 9.5 touchdowns.

  • Over – 34%
  • Under – 66%

So, an interesting question here. Only twice in Kelly’s tenure have the Irish failed to feature a scoring leader with under 10 touchdowns: 2012, when Theo Riddick paced an extremely conservative attack with seven scores, and 2016, when Equanimeous St. Brown somehow scored nine times even though we didn’t have a football season. On average the leader has had exactly 12 touchdowns; even allowing for one fewer game on the schedule, you’d think the leader for a potential top 15/20 offense would manage at least 10. However, there are so many options on offense without a clear dominant presence that it’s hard to say who would break away from the pack. Last year Chase Claypool (13 scores) stood atop a list of nine players with at least four touchdowns; we could see a similar dispersion this year with less dominance at the top.

The staff was slightly more pessimistic here, with 29% taking the over and 71% taking the under.

Who will lead the team in rushing yards?

  • Kyren Williams – 77%
  • Chris Tyree – 16%
  • Ian Book – 4%
  • Jafar Armstrong – 3%

Not surprisingly, three-fourths of you picked the starting running back. I don’t disagree with it necessarily based on how last year went for Armstrong, but it’s still somewhat mind-blowing to me how quickly he went from potential feature back to afterthought. At the start of last season there were high hopes for a kid who racked up over 500 yards from scrimmage at a rate of around 6 yards per touch in an injury-shortened season. Fast forward a year, and he’s more or less fallen off the radar thanks to two guys who haven’t even really gotten their feet wet. The game can be a cruel mistress. 71% of the staff tabbed Williams as well and the remaining 29% took Tyree.

Who will lead the team in sacks?

  • Ade Ogundeji – 49%
  • Daelin Hayes – 27%
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – 21%
  • Isaiah Foskey – 3%

The staff was even more confident in Ogundei, giving him 72% of the vote while Hayes and JOK took 14% each. Ogundeji isn’t the twitchiest lineman on the team but even so it feels like he’s right on the edge of becoming a dominant presence. Ever since his straight-arm walk-back move in the 2018 playoff to sack Trevor Lawrence, his talent has bubbled along at an increasingly lively simmer. I think he’s going to boil over in a big way this year, especially against the collection of mediocre ACC offensive lines we’ll see.

JOK is a solid choice given that he tied for the team lead in sacks last year, although in fairness three of his five and half came against Iowa State. I think his usage lends to being more of a TFL machine than a sack machine, but we’ll see. Hayes has shown flashes but hasn’t always finished; this could well be the year he puts it together. Foskey is a developing beast.

Who will lead the team in intereceptions?

  • Kyle Hamilton – 80%
  • Shaun Crawford – 16%
  • TaRiq Bracy – 3%
  • Nick McCloud – <1%
  • Clarence Lewis – <1%

Hamilton is awesome. Rinse, repeat. The staff vote was 62% for Hamilton, 15% each for Crawford and Bracy, and 8% for McCloud.

Which freshman will make the biggest immediate impact?

  • Chris Tyree – 77%
  • Clarence Lewis – 15%
  • Michael Mayer – 7%
  • Jordan Johnson – 1%
  • Don’t know – <1%

Ever since it first became clear that Tyree was seriously considering Notre Dame, Irish fans have had visions of him slicing through the secondary dancing in their heads. He showed up to summer session 10 pounds heavier than he was listed as a recruit and just as fast, which did nothing to quiet the hype. Then he went out and earned the 1B spot in the lineup. He’s going to touch the ball a decent amount – I’d guess something like 8-10 times per game – and we’ll all hold our breath every time he does. He’s that dangerous.

Clarence Lewis was a surprise to… well, everyone when the first depth chart came out. Some folks, including some here, were high on him on signing day last year, but I don’t think anyone expected him to push TaRiq Bracy for co-starter status. He’s a new entrant but a very solid one. Kelly absolutely raved about Mayer and Johnson during camp, which is very out of character for him. They’ll both play, and they both have the potential to make some noise.

93% of the staff took Tyree with the other 7% taking Lewis.

Over/Under

5.5 wins in first 6 games (Duke, USF, @ Wake Forest, Florida State, Louisville, @ Pitt)

  • Readers: 84% over, 16% under
  • Staff: 93% over, 7% under

4.5 wins in final 5 games (@ Georgia Tech, Clemson, @ Boston College, @ North Carolina, Syracuse)

  • Readers: 19% over, 81% under
  • Staff: 14% over, 86% under

Not surprisingly the vast majority of us expect to win the first six and, while it’s not broken out here as such, very likely the first seven games of the season. (I mean, none of us has a loss to Georgia Tech penciled in, right?) I think Louisville will be much improved over last year, Florida State has some athletes on defense, and Pitt as always will be an absolutely miserable place to play. I also think Notre Dame outclasses every one of them and shouldn’t have too much trouble. In fact, SP+ projects the Irish as a double-digit favorite for every game except for Clemson (+4.5) and North Carolina (-4.2).

I suspect that almost all of us do have that Clemson game penciled in as a loss, but count me among those who think the Tar Heels are being hyped a bit too soon. So while I did take the under on the second half, I think we’ll just miss it.

+200 point differential (last year: +245; previous BK era high: +171, 2018)

  • Readers: 61% over, 39% under
  • Staff: 36% over, 64% under

I’ll be very interested to track this one. Last year’s team was, as you can see, Kelly’s Notre Dame best by a long margin. On the other hand, that previous high was the year before, so maybe this is just part of a trend. Since the post-2016 reboot Kelly has shown a much stronger tendency to go for the jugular, recording almost seven three-score wins per season after averaging under three for the previous seven years. He’ll need to maintain that attitude to hit this mark with one fewer game.

Harsh but fair.

32 team sacks (Last season: 34)

  • Readers: 30% over, 70% under
  • Staff: 21% over, 79% under

80 tackles for loss (last season: 94)

  • Readers: 57% over, 43% under
  • Staff: 43% over, 57% under

10 interceptions gained (last season: 9)

  • Readers: 34% over, 66% under
  • Staff: 70% over, 30% under

I wrestled with these lines a bit; I adjusted TFLs down because of the shorter schedule, but left sacks and interceptions where I would’ve had them. I think we’re going to see a better pass rush this year and more ball-hawking in the secondary, so we may be able to hit these numbers. Last year’s 94 TFLs was the best of the Kelly era at Notre Dame by a pretty solid margin – the next best was 84 by the 2015 defense, which boasted TFL machines Jaylon Smith, Sheldon Day, Romeo Okwara, and Isaac Rochell (DAMN YOU BVG). I have plenty of faith in Clark Lea, but it just feels like the stretchiest of stretch goals to hit another big number like that in a short season.

2.5 non-offense touchdowns (BK avg: 2.4)

  • Readers: 64% over, 36% under
  • Staff: 71% over, 29% under

The average here was buoyed for a long time by special teams success and opportunistic defense early in Kelly’s tenure – think George Atkinson, CJ Sanders, Stephon Tuitt, etc. Happily, the Irish pushed the average up last year for the first time in a while courtesy of four defensive touchdowns – one each for Kyle Hamilton, Ade Ogundeji, Khalid Kareem, and Paul Moala.

I think it’s very reasonable to be optimistic here with a lot of playmakers returning plus, as noted above, more dynamic special teams returners than we’ve had in quite some time. We know that Chris Tyree is a guy who can turn one bad angle or one missed tackle into six points. We know that Lawrence Keys has some wiggle. Should be a lot of fun to watch.

Long field goal of 52.5 yards

  • Readers: 25% over, 75% under
  • Staff: 43% over, 57% under

Last year this line was 44.5 yards, with 65% of you and 45% of the staff taking the under. So of course, Doerer went out and hit three 50+ yard field goals and generally was awesome all year; he even earned a game ball after hitting from 45, 52, and 43 in a three-point win over Southern Cal. Go figure!

So this year we’re upping the ante. Doerer’s personal best is that 52-yarder against the Trojans, while the school record is 53. I think Kelly is going to give him a shot at it at some point this season. I also think Doerer has enough leg to get it to the uprights from 60 – whether it’s straight, we’ll see.

2.5 kickoff returns past own 40 (last season: 1, with one very big fumble at the 36)

  • Readers: 66% over, 34% under
  • Staff: 69% over, 31% under

Last year this line was set at 1.5 and both readers and staff overwhelmingly took the under. Hype, thy name is Tyree (again).

I don’t entirely know what’s going on here but I’m down.

5.5 punt returns of 10+ yards (last season: 6)

  • Readers: 48% over, 52% under
  • Staff: 62% over, 38% under

Chris Finke, as much heat as he got from Irish fans, was actually 24th nationally last year at 9.0 yards per punt return. Not sparkling, but far from bottom of the barrel either. Finke was very adept at staying calm in the midst of the chaos of a punt return, and at slipping through small openings for extra yards. We know Keys has better athletic testing numbers – will he be able to match those softer skills as well?

3,000 passing yards by Ian Book (last season: 3,034)

  • Readers: 37% over, 63% under
  • Staff: 7% over, 93% under

I eventually took the under, but contrary to what the percentages might make you think this was a really tough one to decide for me. 2019 Book threw for just 233 yards per game, which would work out to just 2,796 for 12 games (assuming the Irish make the ACC title game). 2018 Book, however, threw for 291 yards per start; over 12 games that works out to 3,492 yards. 3,000 yards over 12 games would be exactly 250 yards per game. Can he hit that number? Can he hit it with (presumably) two games against Clemson dragging down his average? Will Tommy Rees ask him to do that much in the passing game?

600 yards from scrimmage by Chris Tyree

  • Readers: 61% over, 39% under
  • Staff: 71% over, 29% under

Guess I should’ve set this line higher? Josh Adams set the freshman mark for Kelly in 2015 with 880 yards – when he shared a backfield with CJ Prosise, who recorded 1,337 yards from scrimmage, and DeShone Kizer, who added 520. Kelly’s next most prolific freshman back was Tarean Folston in 2015, who had 505 yards. That informed my thinking in setting this line in a shortened season, but Tyree Hype strikes again here and perhaps fairly. His game-breaking ability looks more equivalent to that of Adams than Folston.

If Tyree, Williams, and Book combine for over 2,500 yards this year, as Prosise, Adams, and Kizer did, I think we can be pretty confident that the offense will have been really, really good.

2.0 havoc plays (TFL, PD, FF) per game by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

  • Readers: 68% over, 32% under
  • Staff: 64% over, 36% under

You were right there with us on this one. JOK’s 13.5 TFLs last year tied him for second most of the Kelly era, with 2011 Manti Te’o and 2015 Sheldon Day. Pretty good company. He also broke up four passes and forced two fumbles. It would seem a lot to ask to step that production up by 33%, but when you take a look at Lea’s previous exemplar rover, Wake Forest’s Marquel Lee, it doesn’t seem so crazy. Lee went from 11 havoc plays in 2015 (10.0 TFLs and 1 PD) to a whopping 23 in 2016 (20.0 TFLs and 3 FF). To hit this line, JOK would have to go from 19.5 havoc plays last year to about 24 this year. Let’s hope.

6.5 interceptions by Kyle Hamilton (last season: 4)

  • Readers: 21% over, 79% under
  • Staff: 29% over, 71% under

As noted above, Te’o and Hayseed hold the Kelly-era record at seven interceptions. That’s a lot, but Hamilton had four last year in a rotation role. On the other hand, teams will almost certainly try to stay away from him this year. On the other other hand, the ball has a funny little way of finding him. I took the over. Let’s [censored] go.

3.5 games played by Kevin Austin

  • Readers: 64% over, 36% under
  • Staff: 71% over, 29% under

Last year I published the survey right before news broke that Austin’s vague unavailability was really a year-long suspension. This year I published the survey right before word got out that Austin’s rehab was going very well and he could be back by early October. I’m going to take that as a good sign.

12.0 sacks and takeaways by the Koreanaissance crew (Kyle Hamilton and Jordan Botelho)

  • Readers: 27% over, 73% under
  • Staff: 43% over, 57% under

My dudes. Mash the over on this one. I don’t think Botelho is particularly game ready yet, but with the “free year” eligibility stance from the NCAA this year I get the feeling he’s going to get more time than the usual four-game redshirt. Can’t wait to see that 17 flying off the edge at people.

We’re expanding our Kpop horizons, folks.

2.5 Heisman Trophies won by Kyle Hamilton

  • Readers: 25% over, 75% under
  • Staff: 71% over, 29% under

I mean, obviously.

0.5 games cancelled or postponed due to COVID impact (team/opponent testing, community issues, etc.)

  • Readers: 71% over, 29% under
  •  Staff: 79% over, 21% under

There’s no avoiding the elephant in the room, after all… I’m cautiously optimistic that we will get the whole season in. The players are highly motivated to make everything work and by and large they’ve been pretty good about maintaining their own bubble, at Notre Dame and elsewhere. Still, all it takes is one walk-on hanging out at Pig Tostal (I know it’s the wrong time of year, but it’s the right spirit) to throw a wrench in things, so it does almost feel inevitable. Let’s hope that the lads all keep their collective nose clean.

6.5 times NBC cameras will show someone on the sideline fixing their mask

  • Readers: 96% over, 4% under
  • Staff: 100% over

Yeah, you’re right. NBC will probably blow this out of the water in the first game. Still, I don’t know if anyone will match the entertainment value of Andy Reid, amateur welder/sauna operator.

Really I could’ve stopped at “match the entertainment value of Andy Reid.”

0.5 Irish fans who will pine for Doug Flutie’s return to the booth

  • Readers: 12% over, 88% under
  • Staff: 14% over, 86% under

We must uncover those who pine, and expose them for the horrid moles that they are. No true Irish fan would wish for Flutie over a sock monkey, or their mother-in-law, or Desmond Howard, or Stalin… Alright, alright, I went too far. I’m sorry. You shouldn’t joke about stuff like Desmond Howard.

Prop Bets

Notre Dame will have a 900 yard rusher in 2019.

  • Readers: 36% true, 64% false
  • Staff: 50% true, 50% false

Notre Dame will have a 900 yard receiver in 2019.

  • Readers: 33% true, 67% false
  • Staff: 31% true, 69% false

Adjusted down from the usual 1,000 yard benchmarks, of course. I think there’s a chance for the rushers, although the shortened season and Book being a good runner cuts into it. I feel like the receiver mark would be almost a given if Austin were playing the full season, but he’s not, so who knows.

Ian Book will pace all Notre Dame rushers in scoring.

  • Readers: 26% true, 74% false
  • Staff: 14% true, 86% false

I think this is extremely unlikely, and if it does happen it means we had a big problem on offense. Book is a good runner but he’s not Brandon Wimbush, who racked up an absurd 14 rushing touchdowns in 2017 to lead the team. Even last year, when Book carried so much of the load – he had the second-most carries on the team and more than twice as many as #3 – he was behind Tony Jones and C’Bo Flemister in rushing touchdowns. I suspect Williams, Tyree, Lenzy, and the veteran backs will do most of the heavy lifting again here.

More scrimmage yards for…

  • Size receivers (Austin, Skowronek, McKinley, Tremble): Readers 55%, Staff 71%
  • Speed receivers (Lenzy, Keys, Davis, Johnson): Readers 45%, Staff 29%

Interesting that the staff skewed so much more heavily toward the size receivers. One thing working very much in their favor, which I didn’t know when I published the survey, is that the size group includes three starters and a guy who will be when he comes back, while the speed group includes three reserves. Lenzy missed some time in camp, so hopefully once he shakes the rust off he’ll get back to the top of the heap here.

More interceptions for…

  • Kyle Hamilton (last year: 4): Readers 53%, Staff 36%
  • Not Kyle Hamilton (last year: 5): Readers 47%, Staff 64%

Kyle is going to come after us at some point. Not looking forward to it.

I tried to warn you.

More sacks for…

  • Starting defensive ends (Hayes, Ogundeji): Readers 71%, Staff 64%
  • Rotation defensive ends (Oghoufo, Foskey, Ademilola, Botelho): Readers 29%, Staff 36%

I think the biggest question here is probably whether Hayes will hold up for the entire season. If he does, and Ogundeji does what many expect him to, this should be an easy cover for the starters.

In the Notre Dame record books, Ian Book will finish the year ranked 2nd in career passing yards (needs 2,031), 2nd in career passing touchdowns (needs 5), 2nd in career passer rating (needs to hold serve), and 2nd in career QB rushing yards (needs 123).

  • Readers: 54% true, 3% false, 43% very cute we get the point
  • Staff: 93% true, 7% very cute we get the point

Res ipsa loquitor.

Wait… Who voted “false”? Is the assumption there that one way or another Book will lose too many games to COVID? Maybe it’s about the QB rating? He would need to play markedly worse than last year – for example, if he had the same completion rate as 2019 (eight points lower than his 2018 rate), 200 fewer yards, 5 fewer touchdowns, and 4 more interceptions, he would still finish just ahead of Kizer for second all time. He’ll probably get the passing touchdowns and rushing yards by the second or at most third game played. 2,031 yards should take about eight games.

Jon Doerer will move into Notre Dame’s top five all time in scoring (needs 127 points, had 108 last year)

  • Readers: 28% true, 72% false
  • Staff: 21% true, 79% false

127 is a lot, really, but he’s 126 points out of the top five so the line is what it is… I should also clarify that this is kicker scoring, not overall scoring; he needs 116 points this year to move into the top ten in overall scoring.

Doerer’s 108 points last year was actually a Notre Dame single-season record, in fact, which might even make some of those who voted in his favor want to reconsider their ballots. He easily cleared the previous record of 98 set by Kyle Brindza in 2013. An interesting footnote here is that there are rumblings Doerer will return next year as a result of the free eligibility year this season. If he plays a full season this year and returns for next, he’ll have an excellent shot at leaving Notre Dame second all-time in kicking points – behind none other than his predecessor, Justin Yoon, who had 367 career points. It’s highly unlikely that Doerer could catch Yoon, but he does have a chance at moving into second in kicking and overall scoring if he returns.

Notre Dame will have a top 20 S&P+ offense and defense (last year: 20th offense, 22nd defense).

  • Readers: 79% true, 21% false
  • Staff: 86% true, 14% false

Again, high expectations for the lads this year, especially given what the defense lost (both starting defensive ends, starting Buck, both starting safeties, top corner). I think that says a lot about the amount of faith people have in Clark Lea and about what we all expect experience to mean for the offense. We saw that last year’s rankings, right on the fringe of this measure, yielded a very good, but not great, team. If the Irish can push both of these up, watch out.

Notre Dame’s highest-ranked end-of-season win will be…

  • Readers: 30% current #18 North Carolina, 70% the field
  • Staff: 14% current #18 North Carolina, 86% the field

I think with questions like this it’s almost always a smart bet to take the field; unless it’s Secretariat, the odds are almost always going to be in the field’s favor. I have no idea what this season holds, which adds even more uncertainty than usual in my process, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of non-Clemson teams on the schedule end up higher ranked than Carolina. Louisville, Pitt (yes, Pitt!), and maybe even Florida State if Norvell can turn them around/fight off mutiny might be better regarded by the end of the season.

And then there’s always Clemson…

Christmas, indeed.

Wrapping Up

Notre Dame has a chance to win double-digit games in four consecutive years for the first time in school history. The current three-year streak is only the second time it’s happened, along with Lou Holtz’s 1991-93 run. Of course expanded schedules help – pretty sure Frank Leahy would’ve won 40 games in three years on a modern schedule – but still, it’s impressive and we should remember to enjoy the ride. With nine wins, Brian Kelly will pass Lou Holtz for the most wins in Notre Dame history (appropriately ignoring the NCAA’s bull**** trumped-up penalty for 2012-13, and I hope the school celebrates the living hell out of it just to jab a thumb in their eye). A 10-2 record would yield an .868 win percentage over the last three years, a mark Notre Dame has exceeded only five times post-World War II and only once post-Leahy (Holtz’s .892 mark from 1987-89).

There’s some Irish history out there for the taking, which feels it is as it should be given what an oddly historical year in the broader world this has been. There’s also the simple pleasure of enjoying the game, whose return was in doubt as recently as mere weeks ago. I think newly-re-minted (is that a thing?) captain Robert Hainsey said it perfectly:

I am so excited to play in Notre Dame Stadium, I wouldn’t trade it for anything in the world. There was a time this year where we didn’t even know if we were playing football. After last year and my last snap last year being in Notre Dame Stadium vs. Virginia Tech and all the questions this year about, ‘Am I going to play?’ I was like, ‘Man, was that my last college snap ever?’ I don’t care if there’s no fans or if it’s like a scrimmage. The fact that we get to play football is such a blessing this year.

I hear you, Rob. I hear you.

On the eve of the season, in a time of uncertainty and strife, we here at 18 Stripes raise a glass (of the official beer of the Fighting Irish, of course) to all of you. May the road rise to meet you, the rain fall soft upon your fields, the sun shine warm upon your face, and until next we meet, may God hold you and yours in the hollow of His hand. Happiness and health to you all. And let’s get this damn thing kicked off!