Welcome back to the Playoff Big Board, here in the strangest of college football seasons. Usually our board consists of all ranked undefeated teams and all ranked one-loss Power 5 teams in the committee rankings. I’m going to tweak it a bit this year to reflect all those teams that I believe are seriously on the board – for example, 3-0 Oregon fits the undefeated team standard, but at #15 they’re far outside the playoff picture at the moment.
I define “resume wins” for our purposes as wins over currently-ranked teams; it gets too complicated to project whether teams will drop out of or climb into the rankings as the year progresses. Past and possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and given how far along we are in the season will also include potential conference championship game matchups.
The “FPI Table-Running Probability” is taken from the ESPN’s FPI rankings here. I don’t have a preference for FPI’s data over other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. The FPI probabilities are just the most readily available. Also, keep in mind that these probabilities include a potential championship game for the relevant teams.
Undefeated Teams
These teams will generally control their own destinies, except of course for the Group of 5 teams (sorry guys).
#1 Alabama, 8-0
This week: at LSU
Resume wins to date: vs. #5 Texas A&M, vs. #9 Georgia
Possible resume wins: vs. #6 Florida (SEC championship game)
FPI table-running probability: 79%
The Tide blew away an overmatched Auburn team with Nick Saban sidelined by COVID. Is Alabama that good? Is Auburn just bad?
#2 Notre Dame, 9-0
This week: vs. Syracuse
Resume wins to date: vs. #3 Clemson, at #17 North Carolina
Possible resume wins: vs. #3 Clemson (ACC championship game)
FPI table-running probability: 27%
Notre Dame turned a lot more heads by smothering then-#19 North Carolina than they did by outlasting then-#1 Clemson. Funny how that works… But also not funny, because that was a legitimately dominant performance by the Irish defense in Chapel Hill and an impressively efficient performance by an offense missing two starters on the offensive line.
North Carolina came into the game ranked 3rd in SP+ offense. They were averaging 43 points, 233 rushing yards (5.6 yards per carry), 330 passing yards (10.6 per attempt), and 28 first downs per game. Against Notre Dame, they scored 17, which included just one lonely field goal on a penalty-prolonged drive after their first two possessions. They had 87 rushing yards, their lowest output in two years, at just 2.7 yards per carry. They had 211 passing yards on a mediocre 7.8 yards per attempt, both easily season lows. Star running back Javonte Williams, who has drawn some Heisman attention, had 28 yards on 11 carries.
Lots of pundits thought the Irish’s win over Clemson might have been lucky. This team has left little doubt for those people in its last couple of games. Excelsior.
#4 Ohio State, 4-0
This week: at Michigan State
Resume wins to date: vs. #12 Indiana
Possible resume wins: vs. #14 Northwestern (Big Ten championship game)
FPI table-running probability: 81%
Ohio State sat idle this week due to COVID issues – we only know of head coach Ryan Day testing positive, but rumor has it that Justin Fields, essentially the entire wide receiver room, and several other players tested positive too. They’re slated to play Michigan State this week and Michigan next; between their COVID issues and a recent spike at Michigan that led them to cease football activities, it’s anybody’s guess if they’ll play either game. That puts them in a very precarious situation, as with one more cancellation they would be ineligible for the Big Ten title game. Could the committee really put a 5-0 Ohio State team with one quality win over top 15 Indiana – who just lost star quarterback Michael Penix for the season to a leg injury – into the playoff over a 10-1 Texas A&M? Or an 11-1 Notre Dame, or 10-2 Clemson? Would the door re-open for the Big 12 champ?
#7 Cincinnati, 8-0
This week: at Temple
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: at #24 Tulsa, vs. #24 Tulsa (AAC championship game)
FPI table-running probability: 62%
Cincinnati and Temple were supposed to play this past weekend but that game was called off due to, you guessed it, a spike of COVID cases – but this time in both programs. The Bearcats are next scheduled to play fringe top 25 team Tulsa on December 12th, and will likely have an immediate rematch with them in the AAC title game. I think they still have a real shot at the playoff, but they need an awful lot of help. Let’s say Notre Dame wins the rematch with Clemson, Texas A&M falls to Auburn, Florida gets pounded by Alabama, and Ohio State can’t play for the Big Ten title. All of those are very much in play, to varying degrees of course, and I think in that scenario Cincinnati might sneak in.
One Loss Teams
These teams aren’t out of it but most will need some breaks to fall their way. The good news for them is that every college football season contains a looooot of breaks.
#3 Clemson, 7-1
This week: at Virginia Tech
Resume wins to date: vs. #10 Miami
Possible resume wins: vs. #2 Notre Dame (ACC championship game)
The one loss: at #2 Notre Dame, in overtime
FPI table-running probability: 63%
Clemson beat Pitt by 35 at home, which for some people clearly proves they’re superior to the Notre Dame team that beat Pitt by 42 on the road, because reasons. Yes, they faced Kenny Pickett and we didn’t, but let’s be realistic here… Breathless proclamations of “Angry Clemson” being the best playoff team based on that seem pretty ridiculous. But here we are. Clemson travels to Blacksburg this week that lost to that same Pitt team by 33 their last time out, which was two weekends ago.
Can a team that lost to Wake Forest and Liberty really knock off ANGRY CLEMSON? Probably not, but they’re the last serious obstacle to a Notre Dame-Clemson rematch in the ACC championship game.
#5 Texas A&M, 6-1
This week: at Auburn
Resume wins to date: vs. #6 Florida
Possible resume wins: None
The one loss: at #1 Alabama, badly
FPI table-running probability: 36% (locked out of SEC CG)
The Aggies just added another block to LSU’s wobbly post-championship Jenga pile and will now face Auburn, fresh off a loss to Alabama that’s fairly similar to A&M’s own loss to Alabama. The rankings have these two teams pretty far apart; we’ll see how far they really are this week. They’re on the fringes of the playoff race now, ready to capitalize on the first stumble in the top four.
#6 Florida, 7-1
This week: at Tennessee
Resume wins to date: vs. #9 Georgia (neutral site)
Possible resume wins: vs. #1 Alabama (SEC championship game)
The one loss: at #5 Texas A&M, close
FPI table-running probability: 12%
Kentucky briefly pushed Florida at the beginning of the game this past weekend and then that was about it. The Gators are in cruise control for the SEC conference championship game – they would need to drop both remaining regular season games, to moribund Tennessee and LSU teams, while Georgia beats Vandy to be left out – but the playoff is another matter. I don’t think Florida can come close to stopping Alabama’s offense, but plenty of time left to figure that one out.
#10 Miami, 7-1
This week: Off
Resume wins to date: None
Possible resume wins: vs. #17 North Carolina, vs. #2 Notre Dame (ACC championship game)
The one loss: at #3 Clemson, by a lot
FPI table-running probability: 37%
Miami’s game against Wake Forest this week was cancelled due to COVID cases in the Wake Forest program. Their next game is December 12th against North Carolina, which will be almost a month from their last game, November 14th against Virginia Tech. A wacky year indeed. They’re still theoretically alive for the ACC championship game; they would be in if they win out and Clemson drops one to Virginia Tech or, if the game is played, Florida State. Given that Florida State’s game this week was cancelled due to their own COVID problems, though, all that seems fairly unlikely.
#14 Northwestern, 5-1
This week: Idle
Resume wins to date: vs. #16 Wisconsin
Possible resume wins: vs. Big Ten East champion (Big Ten championship game)
FPI Table-Running Probability: 7%
In a totally shocking and not at all predictable development, Northwestern followed up a big win against a ranked team by forgetting to get of the bus against a bad team. Michigan State, who lost their opener to Rutgers and dropped a pair to Iowa and Indiana by a combined score of 73-7, did the honors this time. They’re still more or less locked into the Big Ten championship game, but their playoff hopes are dead barring multiple miracles elsewhere. Their game against Minnesota this week was cancelled due to another rash of COVID cases in the Gophers’ program. PJ is just rowing away up there.
Honorable Mention
#12 BYU (9-0) is undefeated, sure, but the committee having them ranked where they are makes it pretty clear they have no shot at the playoff.
#20 USC (3-0) maintains the tiniest chance, but even if all games on their schedule are actually played and they win out they’ll only be 6-0. That feels like too few games for the champ of a conference that already has serious credibility issues.
#23 Oregon (3-1), who is likely to play one more game than USC, maybe had a tiny sliver of hope if they could run the Pac 12 table in convincing fashion. That… did not happen. They fell to 2-2 Oregon State and lost the platypus trophy, which I wish I knew about sooner. Like everything else even tangentially related to Puddles, it’s awesome.
Excellent writeup. I wish you would have included an entry for Georgia just to denote their signature “resume losses”.
(1) Could the committee really put a 5-0 Ohio State team with one quality win over top 15 Indiana … into the playoff over a 10-1 Texas A&M? Or an 11-1 Notre Dame, or 10-2 Clemson? Would the door re-open for the Big 12 champ?
This is the real question. I think they would but I don’t like it. They will say that OSU has been impressive in their 4 (or 5 or 6) wins. But that they’ve been “impressive” is hard to judge. If it weren’t for the name brand of OSU and Fields being a kind of Heisman candidate (at least before the season)/elite QB, I think they’d be back more where USC is at. Both undefeated but have only played a few games. And against *bad* teams.
I’m not sure a win over MSU (or Michigan for that matter) would change anything. *Maybe* a 7-0 OSU with a HUGE (more than 2 TDs) win over Wisconsin is enough. But it’s not like we know if Wisconsin is any good either.
(2) We know Lawrence is back for Clemson but does anyone know if their defense is much healthier than when we played last?
I really think that an OSU team that only plays 6 games (compared to 10+ for the other teams under consideration) should not make it in — that is a really big discrepancy in terms of games played. Every year it seems other teams scream and pout about the conference champs playing 13 games vs. ND playing 12, and that is just a one game difference.
But what do you think they’ll do? I obviously agree with you. Good point about some complaining about the difference in games from 12 to 13.
One thing in OSU’s favor this year is that there aren’t a lot takers for that spot. Some of it probably has to do with only playing conference games actually. Doesn’t that make it easier to see where teams stack up in a conference and so it leaves with less teams (the Big 12 ate itself alive and the Pac 12 started so late there is no chance). So 2 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams are in the hunt and 1 Big 10 team. The spots have to go to someone.
Right Big-10/Pac-12 must be pretty upset with the original decisions to postpone season. The thing making this possible for most is just starting early so to count on a couple of canceled games for everyone.
Based on the fact that they have included OSU so far, my guess is that they will put them into the playoffs. However, if the committee puts a big emphasis on quality wins, then the other SEC teams like A&M or Florida should be considered strongly to be ahead of OSU as they both notched a win against a top 10 opponent.
OSU would be in better shape if there were literally any other contenders with 5 or 6 game seasons like them. In that scenario, they’d be able to argue that nobody played a full season and nobody has good wins, so the committee should rely on the “eye test” and general performance the past couple years to estimate who the best four teams are.
But that’s not the case here. All the contenders except Ohio State are going to play something very close to full seasons with multiple difficult games. Ohio State is the odd man out, which makes it easy for the committee to exclude them.
We’ll see. I think Ohio State is in a precarious position here.
I suppose the reason many are talking about a close loss to Clemson keeps ND in the playoffs is that there is just no one else that has a good win waiting to take the place.
If ND loses close, then it’s between Texas A&M, ND, and Cincinnati.
A&M has been no one so it seems ND gets in over them. And I doubt a win over a borderline top 25 is going have to Cin. jump A&M (and so a fortiori they would not jump ND).
Then it’d be what:
#1 Bama
#2 Clemson
then maybe OSU #3 (if at least in part to avoid round 3 before the championship game), and ND #4.
If we beat Clemson, then A&M gets in no?
And we’d likely play OSU first – which I’d feel confident about.
Only if OSU gets left out for not playing enough games (or for losing one of them) will Cincy jump in it would seem. Then we’d play A&M first.
I really hope that you were intentionally trolling Oregon and the PAC 12 by using them as the “undefeated team standard” example.