More so than any other season of college football, 2020 has proven to be the ultimate test for coaches. The pandemic has produced more unique challenges for every program and the cream has truly risen to the top when it comes to coaching. Now, I wanted take a moment to talk about the coaches who have failed in the face of the pandemic and some other random thoughts.
Not Everyone Can ‘Brian Kelly’ a Program Back to Life
At this point, it’s almost become a meme where struggling coaches declare at the end of the year that they’re going to fix all of their problems by following the now-patented BK Rehabilitation Model. Lynn Swann enrolled Clay Helton in that program after USC went 5-7 in 2018 and Tom Herman made no secret about which coach he wanted to emulate while overhauling the Longhorns this past offseason. It’s possible that Jim Harbaugh and James Franklin will be forced down this route if they’re still around next year.
The case for keeping underperforming head coaches at big-time schools has been universally justified by Brian Kelly being 42-6 since 2016. Nonetheless, Herman’s renovation seems to have already collapsed while Helton is simultaneously living on a prayer and impervious to damage despite producing average SC squads. It seems like the coaches who are attempting a crash course in rebuilding their own programs are sinking faster than they can swim.
These are the biggest reasons why Kelly-like reboots are failing:
#1. The Administration Forces an Unwilling Coach
This is an obvious one and also easy to spot. I’m willing to bet that both Helton and Herman had their arms twisted into making changes which defeats the purpose of a genuine culture overhaul (we’ll get to that). There were rumors in 2016 that Brian Kelly was forced by Jack Swarbrick to fire BVG, but that was the only staff member he was *allegedly* coerced into launching under the bus. Kelly made the decision to get rid of Phil Longo, Keith Gilmore and Scott Booker on his own.
It’s pretty obvious that Jim Harbaugh doesn’t want to fire Don Brown despite diminishing returns. In an extreme example, Mark Dantonio preferred to call it quits rather than change his staff. As such, their programs have suffered the consequences.
#2. Not Changing the Right Coaches
After 2018, Clay Helton hit the jackpot by hiring Kliff Kingsbury as OC. After Kingsbury instantly failed upward into the NFL, Helton somehow got a second lease on life with Graham Harrell who has proven to be one of the best young coordinators in college football. The USC offense jumped from 46th in SP+ to 9th last year and Harrell is locked up for the foreseeable future.
However, Helton’s failure on the other side of the ball will be his downfall. DC Clancy Pendergast had a great season in 2013 as the Trojans ranked 4th in SP+ defense. The USC defense then began a gradual slide to 60th in SP+ last year after that high water mark. Pendergast finally got the ax last offseason which was a prerequisite for Helton keeping his job. Yet, had he made that move earlier and hired a bright, young DC (someone like Clark Lea) to match Harrell the Trojans likely would’ve won 1o games.
Now imagine if Kelly had still fired BVG but kept the Mike Sanford Jr./Mike Denbrock tandem intact. Sure, the Irish defense would still be much improved but it’s likely there would’ve another disjointed mess on the offensive side of the ball that would undo all of that progress. Keep an eye on the programs moving forward that only make a half-hearted effort towards improving themselves (looking at you, Penn State).
#3. They Don’t Overhaul Culture
As we know too well, Kelly changed everything about Notre Dame after 2016. He bucked his entire career by firing friends and hiring a whole batch of strangers. The crazy thing is that he really didn’t have to do most of this. Notre Dame was clearly better under his stewardship and the 2016 team was apocalyptically unlucky. In all seriousness, he could’ve just canned BVG, promoted Mike Elston and still had a good run the last four seasons.
Of course, maybe the biggest change Kelly made was overhauling his own mindset. He gave up control of the offense after the Zaire/Kizer debacle and the program is better off. When’s the last time you saw him explode on a player after a mistake after years of the national media making purple-face jokes? Tom Herman could recruit every single five star player or hire the best assistant coach for every unit, but he’d still fail because he has not proven to be mature enough to just get over himself. Needless to say, that’s a Harbaugh problem as well.
These coaches are failing and will continue to fail because they don’t commit to the full process. That means firing friends, hiring strangers and getting bold with personnel. Even so, I bet we’ll continue to see stories from the national sports media lauding the next sub-.500 coach for picking Brian Kelly’s brain without making the truly necessary changes that would affect winning. At the end of the day, I don’t think anyone appreciates enough the work Kelly has done to turn around this program.
Hiring a Loyal Son
Texas’ hire of Tom Herman seemed to herald a potential national turning point in 2016. They hired a guy who cut his teeth in Texas and made no secret that coaching in Austin was his dream. Herman was one of the hottest commodities of the 2010s after going 22-4 at Houston where he’d also just beaten Oklahoma. Like the hires of Harbaugh and Scott Frost in Lincoln, a prodigal son was returning. The Longhorns are back, baby!
Tom Herman's assignment as a graduate assistant with Texas in Jan. 1999 was to sit on Ricky Williams float during parade in Austin pic.twitter.com/A7UwLEa67A
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) November 26, 2016
The feeling of intense love proved even more palpable for Harbaugh and Frost who had led their schools to spectacular success as their starting quarterbacks. Their returns as head coach granted them deity status and essentially made them above reproach while they set to work restoring their alma maters to prominence.
Obviously, these are incredibly rare situations where a blueblood school has the opportunity to hire a blast from the glorious past. In another recent example, Texas Tech also made that move with Kliff Kingsbury and lo and behold, it didn’t work out either. You can’t argue that these aren’t good coaches, either. Scott Frost was widely considered to be the real brains behind Mark Helfrich’s tenure at Oregon and immediately turned UCF around. His tactics have worked everywhere… except Nebraska. Why is that?
The Weight of Expectations… Without the Accountability
A loyal son like Steve Spurrier won big at Florida not only because he was on the extreme cutting edge of the game at the time but also due to the fact that the Gators weren’t a national power yet. He essentially took over the present day version of SEC Iowa and turned them into dynasty. It also didn’t hurt that he hired tremendous coordinators in Bob Stoops and Ron Zook who ensured accountability within the program once expectations finally reached critical mass.
Notre Dame fans know all too well how mistakes are magnified on this stage and the historical consequences of losing. Now imagine if Brady Quinn had a successful coaching career, came back to ND after 2016 and had the same record as Scott Frost. That would hurt a lot worse than an outsider like Kelly failing, right? Now imagine if Quinn reacted to losing at his alma mater by chucking players under the bus like Frost is right now with the lesson being “back in my day…”
Nebraska’s problem is that it has a beloved head coach who hasn’t won anything and yet has basically unquestioned control of a 10-19 football program. The question moving forward is one of accountability to hiring the right people around Frost. Expectations are always going to be high and he’s still a young coach at 45. Unless he finds the right coaching staff, every loss without progress is going to lead to disaster and divorce down the road.
That leads me to my final point…
The Curious Case of Jim Harbaugh
Michigan is now 2-4 after losing to winless Penn State last weekend and now it looks like one of Notre Dame’s oldest adversaries might be reaching the end of his tenure. As such, I thought I might say a few words at his proverbial wake and try to unpack what should have been a perfect football marriage.
I’ll be the first to admit that I bought the hype when Harbaugh was hired in 2014. Overwhelming evidence suggested he would be a smash hit in Ann Arbor and his first two years bore that out. Michigan was instantly better than they were for the past decade and was a contentious 4th down spot away from a playoff berth. Four of his first five teams ranked in the top-10 in SP+ with the 2016 version ranking 3rd.
That early sense of hope translated to off the field success as well. Three of his first four recruiting classes ranked in the top-10 and Harbaugh even signed the #1 high school player in Rashan Gary for the class of 2016. This wasn’t a mirage, Michigan was damn good these years with a solid foundation to build upon.
It’s hard to pinpoint how the Harbaugh Era went wrong and why it seems inevitable that he’ll be gone. Explanations which reference his psyche, talent pool and Ohio State’s dominance don’t suffice. Like most things, the easiest answer involves a combination of factors.
Football Failures and the final end of the ‘Michigan Man’
I’ll posit that Harbaugh’s idiosyncrasies aren’t the issue here. The major concern about Harbaugh’s style is that he wears people out from players to the administration to fans. Yet, this is Michigan we’re talking about and the Wolverine fanbase loves this hokey crap even though it grates on everyone else. From wearing the fake Bo Schembechler glasses to the satellite camps to handing shoes to the Pope, those at MGoBlog and beyond couldn’t eat it up fast enough. They’d still be eating if up if Harbaugh was at least on pace to go 10-2.
Ultimately, he simply can not field complete teams on the field and nowhere has this been more apparent than The Game. The Wolverines’ defense played well in both 2016 and 2017 but were let down by Wilton Speight and John O’Korn as Ohio State overcame early deficits. 2018 and 2019 have seen two pretty good performances by Michigan’s offense, only for the defense to give up well over 100 points combined. Harbaugh’s failures against OSU have come to signify the troubles that have plagued his regime.
It’s fair to say that Harbaugh has mostly pressed the right buttons but at the wrong times. His first three years saw great defenses wasted in big games by a bumbling offense. Harbaugh boldly hired Josh Gattis away from Bama and the Michigan offense dramatically improved after the Penn State game last year. However, it means nothing now that Don Brown’s once impenetrable defense has completely collapsed.
Harkening back to the Scott Frost situation, every loss in Michigan has led to increased grumbling about ceiling. I really don’t think ND fans understand how important Kelly’s third year was not just in engendering winning, but establishing his coaching skill as national championship or bust. I’m not sure Kelly survives 2016 if the 2012 team finished 9-4. In contrast, Michigan has no such metric with Harbaugh who hasn’t won the division and sucks in big games.
It’s hard to say where Michigan goes in a post-Harbaugh world. Luke Fickell is an obvious choice but his name carries special revulsion among the Maize and Blue because of his Ohio roots (by the way, terrible reason to not hire someone). There are rumors that Matt Campbell would only ever consider Ohio State or Notre Dame. Of course, the real test for Michigan’s administration will be to shed the “Michigan Man” prerequisite they invented for holding any position in Ann Arbor. If they fail to do that and turn the program over to another nostalgic Schembechler worshipper, Irish fans and the BIG can rest easy for years to come.
I don’t see any meaningful similarities between 2016 ND and 2020 Michigan. ND went 4-8 with, IIRC, a positive total scoring margin, which is incredibly rare and unusual. Michigan is just getting blown off the field by Indiana and winless Penn State. They’re closer to where ND was in 2007, in my opinion.
Culture is a big deal. Michigan needs to run away from the Michigan Man/Bo Coaching Tree stuff as fast as possible when Harbaugh leaves. That culture is incredibly toxic. It starts with unwarranted arrogance (“Who’s got it better than us? Noooobody!”), defaults to excuses when things go wrong (“Ohio State has online classes!”), and accepts Good Enough results (“Our goal is to play in the Rose Bowl, not win the national championship.”). Then they get hyped like crazy in the offseason and the cycle repeats. There’s no room for introspection or new ideas or the idea that maybe, just maybe, Michigan Men have had the wrong approach for a long time.
In any event, what Bo did 40+ years ago has no bearing on college football in the 2020s, so they should probably stop hiring coaches who just want to cosplay as him.
Of course, I’m rooting for them to monumentally screw everything up and continue hurtling into the abyss.
All great posts, it is a pleasure to read these sorts of comments. Love this site.
Speaking of coaches — Dabo did it again! He REALLY didn’t want to go back to Tallahassee, so, we don’t have to play Wake Forest (I am thinking Jack S. had to have helped work this out).
So we are in the ACC CG. Never thought I would write those words.
True, and really it makes the most sense. With COVID considerations a lot of teams are falling apart (including Wake!)….Plus the ACC commish just coyly made it easier for ND and Clemson to both make the playoff by removing a game and chance for them to lose. Pretty savvy way to make everyone happy.
As an aside, a good friend of mine (Virginia Tech alum) asked me yesterday if I thought there was any chance Notre Dame might want to stay in the ACC. I told him 0.0% and he was a bit surprised and asked why. I said something like, look how Dabo’s acted in the past few days, weeks and months, you think ND wants to put up and be around that? A good point, he admitted.
Eh, I’d say Florida State’s attempt to opt out of their season worked. Between opt outs, transfers, and injuries, that team has clearly packed it up for the year. Good luck to Mike Norvell dealing with that tire fire (speaking of programs with toxic cultures).
I think the broad parallel is true. Both got off to great starts in the first few years at ND and scUM but then hit a very rough patch. I’ll totally agree that ND 2016 was partly unlucky and partly saddled with a terrible BK hire of BVG. Michigan has been terrible in 2020 and nothing could be chalked up to bad luck thus far.
But I think the big parallel is that both schools and fan bases had/have to decide if the good early years are enough to justify allowing the coach to continue. Living in Michigan country I am really hearing that scUM fans are ready to let Harbaugh go b/c he just hasn’t actually accomplished anything of historical value. No one is going to remember winning 10 games in a season. But beating OSU, winning the Big 10, making the playoffs are all metrics that get meaningful historical value and Harbaugh has done none of these things.
However, BK had an undefeated season, a #1 ranked team (albeit briefly), and a national championship appearance (sure we got smoked but we made the history books) to show that his ceiling was truly something that was worthy of being at ND.
To me that is the parallel track of the two seasons. ND chose to allow BK to stay and revamp things, the question is whether Michigan will allow Harbaugh to attempt the same. I’m with you that no matter what the skunkbears choose to do, I hope that screw it up utterly and completely!
Good points. And that was a good point made in the article too, that 12-0 season in 2012 really opened the door to give Kelly a second chance and not just get fired in 2016.
But even beyond 2012, ND was in a NY6 bowl in 2015 and pretty much a strong program that just had a ridiculously bad flash year in 2016 — compared to Michigan which has never really done anything of import under Harbaugh (no BIGCG, no beating Ohio State, no appearances in a meaningful bowl).
So I think it’s also a bit easier for ND to bank on Kelly delivering more 2012 or 2015 type of seasons than what happened in 2016. But, to your point, Michigan really has nothing similar to grasp onto. @Quite a shame@
The other thing is that the analytics showed the 4-8 season wasn’t as bad as that. In other words, Kelly didn’t have to go from nothing to everything over night. A lot was there. I think the SP+ was something like almost 7 wins given the way we played. 7-5 is not great but it’s not a huge jump to 10 wins.
What does the SP+, etc. say about the quality team that Michigan has been (regardless of the wins)?
I think Harbaugh is different than Herman and Frost, who are more similar. Herman and Frost were hot shot up and comers. Neither had the years of experience that Kelly had or that Harbaugh has. Those two are still learning, and could turn it around if they can get the time and actually learn from what is going wrong. The problem is they really may not know. Neither of them has known anything but success prior to coming home again. Harbaugh has the experience, but also has an embedded arrogance and as you say he wears people out. He left Stanford, but perhaps was wearing on people there. He definitely wore out his welcome at San Francisco. I think one big difference between Kelly and the other three (besides perhaps his sincerity in making the changes) is Jack Swarbrick. I don’t know if any of the others have that kind of relationship in their athletic department. An equal who they can kick things around with. I am guessing that they are more the boss of the AD than a co-equal. Perhaps it is management style or perhaps it is structural. While Swarbrick downplays his role in the transformation, Kelly does not. Particularly for a Frost or Herman, they almost certainly need a more mentor like AD. They may have too much pride/hubris to do it, but someone sitting them down as a mentor and not a boss could work. Harbaugh on the other hand certainly has too much pride/hubris to ever admit a mistake. He would never view the AD as an equal. He is the smartest man in the room, and he knows it, even if you don’t. There was an article about the problems at FSU and it is clear that it was as much about disfunction in the relationship between the AD and the coaches as it was anything else. The ADs also switched over at FSU, and I think the same is true at Texas, Nebraska and Michigan. That relationship may not exist with the new AD. I don’t buy the new AD wants his own coach. Perhaps, but most ADs would rather the coach win. The relationship may not be there though to have those stern heart to hearts. Whether it is fire the assistant or else (I don’t think that happened with BVG), the presence of a sounding board matters. Clay Helton’s problem is different. Lynn Swann is also new to the job and may be feeling his way as well. Swarbrick hired Kelly. His legacy was on the line as much as Kelly’s. It was in his interest to see Kelly succeed. There is also something to be said for 30 years of experience. Swarbrick’s experience may not be directly applicable, but it is useful. I advise growing companies. I can recognize when things are going wrong. Not everyone wants to hear that advice. My guess is Kelly wanted it, Swarbrick could (and did) give it. I would bet that when the retrospective… Read more »
This is good stuff, thanks DCI. You make a good point about Herman and Frost being up and comers, I’m really interested to see if they figure things out.
The fact that Michigan fans still refer to MSU as “Little Sister” cracks me up. MSU has 6 double digit win seasons since 2010, compared to Michigan’s 4. MSU has 3 conference titles, Michigan has 0. Their fan base, their administration, their coaching staff, and to an extent, even their players, all have this unearned arrogance that will never stop cracking me up.
ND’s 4-8 season taught Brian Kelly and his players that even if you’re good, even if you have talent, even if you wear flashy uniforms, the games are decided on the field, where odds are, the majority of your opponents don’t give a damn about the name on your uniform.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s 4th place finish in the division in 2017, in Harbaugh’s 3rd year, taught that program nothing but how to make excuses. We got unlucky vs. MSU (ignoring it took OT to beat IU). We had to play too many highly ranked teams. We weren’t motivated for our bowl game.
They’ve convinced themselves their rivals with OSU, but never beat them. They’ve convinced themselves their a Big Ten power, but never play in Big Ten Championship games. They’ve convinced themselves they DESERVE to be an elite program, but they’ve earned nothing. They are the worst part of every fanbase, amplified by 1000, permeated throughout the entirety of their program. And I will enjoy their disastrous results every single day.
The much-ballyhooed Revenge Tour of 2018 is a great example of this. Consider:
-Michigan’s first game is against a hated rival that last embarrassed them 37-0. All the motivation in the world, right? Wrong. Michigan sleepwalks through a mostly uncompetitive game and loses to ND’s backup quarterback.
-Oh shit, we actually have to try to win football games. Well, um….REVENGE TOUR! And that goes pretty well! Michigan clonks some cupcakes, then actually beats Wisconsin, MSU, and Penn State!
-Final and by far the most important stop on the Revenge Tour: Ohio State. Michigan is ranked higher and favored on the road. Then they lose 62-39. They redeem that loss by losing to Florida 41-15 in a bowl game. Ah well, the SEC cheats anyway.
-Onto Harbaugh’s next conquest: Middle Tennessee!
The Little Brother stuff never fails to make me laugh. Since Mike Hart made that comment, in addition to all the other things you mentioned, MSU is 9-4 against Michigan. The Spartans have been kicking Michigan’s ass in every conceivable metric in that span. And yet Wolverine fans still latch onto Little Brother! I’d have quietly thrown that in the dumpster a long time ago if I were them, but they can’t help themselves.
I so agree! I live in Michigan and that remains the perception among scUM fans but it is absolutely delusional.
During ND’s years in the wilderness I was still a hardcore fan and always embraced the “Return to Glory” idea after any big win because that is what fans do. However, I never thought that we were among the elite of college football. I was just hoping that we could build up to that point.
But, scUM fans, for the most part, still legitimately believe that they are an elite program in modern college football. However, they have absolutely nothing to back it up and like you correctly pointed out their “little brother” has been the more premier program of this century.
Hot off the press:
Conference championship game appearances, Harbaugh at michigan 0
Kelly at notre dame, 1. Count it!
Wake forest cancelled, we’re in! I dont understand what’s the big deal about conferences anyways, were in one for 1 year and we go to the championship game. Seems a tad overblown
Love this! Saw several very funny memes about it already this morning.
I think Greg Flammang said it best:
“Brian Kelly made a conference title game before Jim Harbaugh.”
Great post.
I think a lot of Harbaugh’s ultimate failure at Michigan can be summed up by something hinted at in the article – mediocre-to-terrible QB play. Those 2015-2017 teams were very, very good, but ultimately they lost big games and rivalry games because they were getting below-P5-average quarterbacking.
And, because they were losing all the big ones, recruiting started to fall off a bit… which leads us to today to some not-insignificant degree. If Shane Morris lived up to his recruiting ranking, it’s a very different world for Michigan.
Ironically, despite pretty terrible QB play, they have a 5 star QB coming in next year, JJ McCarthy. It seems that he is solid in his commitment and is planning on signing in the early period but I suppose that could go awry if Harbaugh is canned or huge staff changes occur.
That alone might justify keeping Harbaugh and sticking with him (perhaps with some D changes) for 2 more years. QB play is just the most important thing in any program unless you are just about perfect in every other area.
I’m not sure talent has been the problem at the QB position as much as development has been, which again leads to an indictment on the coach. Just look at the last 5 years alone: Dylan McCaffrey was a high 4 star in 2017, Brandon Peters was an even higher 4* in 2016 (61st overall player!), Shea Patterson was a former 5* transfer, Joe Milton wasn’t chopped liver himself in 2018 and McNamara in 2019 was a guy Notre Dame wanted and seemed to be better than his final rating. That’s a lot of material to work with for Harbaugh and not a lot of development..
Harbaugh’s done so little with all of those QB prospects cumulatively recently that I personally wouldn’t think he’s earned another chance with the next one. What’s to say McCarthy doesn’t end up in the long line of unimpressive QBs that Harbaugh has turned out?
Yea good points. Though the new OC has done more for the QB’s than the old one hasn’t he?
Debatable. The new OC certainly didn’t help Shea Patterson much. He also couldn’t keep Dylan McCaffrey around (who knows exactly why a kid transfer but…) who many were extremely high on, Joe Milton has had a few good moments but largely looks lost out there, and now the promising freshman McNamara has only played a little bit so it’s really too soon to say.
Overall, I’m not sure it been an improvement.
The really funny thing is that I think McNamara is a pretty decent QB and after a year in the program and some experienced gained this year will be the starter next year. That means the 5 star QB coming in will have to wait to get on the field because while he might have promise Harbaugh would be under extreme pressure to win next year and playing a true freshman (who is not enrolling early to my knowledge) would probably not be a winning formula. So, how long does the 5 star stay around before transferring?
Yea, though the comment above said he is enrolling early. But it’s true if the guy ahead is not going to be unseated…then it’s less of a reason for Harbaugh to stick around to keep this kid.
Sorry, that was my comment above. It was a bit unclear. I meant that he will be signing his LOI on December 16, the early signing period but I don’t believe that he will be enrolling early.
Ahh got it. That makes sense.
I didn’t want to get long in the tooth on the Harbaugh section, but I’ll even posit that Shea Patterson was a good college QB! His two years just happened to coincide with major defensive problems in big games which sours his reputation a bit.
Great article. I agree with DCI’s comment too that the Swarbrick component of the decision making was a crucial one. Brian Kelly made changes to his program, but it always has seemingly come from a place of confidence that he was making moves to improve and get back on track. Just my sense, but I’d bet a lot of that confidence and being so assured has to boil back to the AD’s strong faith and being in Kelly’s corner 100%. The ND turnaround probably doesn’t happen without both of them being fully on board and committed.
I get why Swarbrick rubs some people the wrong way, but his long-term/strategic thinking is second to none in college athletics, IMO.
Hooks, I am 100% with you on this one. The ADs full and obvious confidence in his coach was clear, but I had not assigned enough causality to BK’s rebirth. Thanks for the insight.
ACS, forgive an uninformed query, but why does JS rub some people the wrong way? I have stayed away from NDN for years, but I seem to recall some very vitriolic comments about the AD, but I never knew why. He seems like a good CEO type to me?
I really like Swarbrick, personally. But he does have a tendency toward corporatespeak that can come off as transactional and insincere. I think some people struggle adjusting to him running the athletic department in an extremely professional fashion, rather than the old boys club style.
NDN’s thoughts on him are, as with everything, equal parts ignorant and lunatic conspiracy theory stuff.
Ah, got it. That is really very helpful.
Funny, as both my dad and my Army ROTC colonel (PMS) knew the archtypical old boy, Moose Krause. So I was favorably disposed to that model. But then it degenerated after two more classic old boys to Kevin White, who was neither an old boy nor a good CEO. So Swarbrick came as a sort of relief.
Anyway, thanks again.
As someone who wanted Brian Kelly fired from 2014-2017, I have to admit that he’s done a fantastic job since the reboot.