Navy is done. Phew. There seems to be an oddly high level of discomfort in the fan base with what was an imperfect but highly effective performance against an annoying opponent. The defense held Navy without a touchdown for the first time since 1998 and held them under 200 total yards for the first time in the Brian Kelly Era. In fact they held Navy to their second lowest output of the year behind only Air Force, who knows a thing or two about how to defend the triple option. The offense started slow but then posted its highest passer rating since the season opener and a whopping 7.1 yards per play overall, which over the full season to date would rank fifth nationally. Some new or nearly-new faces shone, most notably true freshman RB Logan Diggs and redshirt freshman WR-LB-S Xavier Watts. No defenders had their knees carved out.
The win was so comprehensively dominant, in fact, that it earned the rare 100.0% postgame win expectancy from SP+, meaning that in all past games with comparable stat lines for both teams, the team with stats similar to Notre Dame’s had never lost. Not once. I enjoyed the first quarter just as much as the rest of you did, I promise, but after that this game was a two-way domination for the Irish. There’s lots to be happy about as Notre Dame sits 8-1 and in excellent position to land a New Year’s Six bid – and, yes, they remain on the fringe of the playoff discussion as well.
Recapping the methodology for these articles: These aren’t actual SP+ win probabilities, as SP+ creator Bill Connelly doesn’t publish those regularly. He does though publish his SP+ ratings every week for all FBS teams. We use a slightly tweaked version of the formula that Reddit poster rcfbuser (account deleted, pour one out) posted a few years back to approximate the official calculation. The FPI win probabilities are updated weekly by ESPN, so those are the real deal.
SP+ measures offensive and defensive explosiveness and efficiency on a per-play basis. FPI is ESPN’s proprietary metric and is much more of a black box, but we do know that it rests heavily on expected points added, which is a pretty solid advanced stat and also a per-play number.
Post-Week 10 Update – SP+ Matrix
As you move down each column, you find the probability of Notre Dame owning that many wins at that point of the schedule. In the sixth row, for example, you can see that the probability of owning zero or nine wins through nine games is 0%, and of owning eight wins is 100%. So, 8-1. In the last row of the table we’re tracking how much the probability of each win total has changed from the previous week. This is a function of our own outcomes, the quality of play that led to those outcomes, and SP+’s changing perceptions of our past and future opponents.
The 42.2% figure at the end of the Stanford row reflects our probability of winning all the remaining games per SP+. That’s up a bit because it really liked Notre Dame’s performance as noted above, but it’s only up a bit because Navy was a high-probability win to begin with so removing it from the calculation of remaining games doesn’t change much. Virginia is another story; get past that one and we’re looking at around a 70% chance of 11-1.
Post-Week 10 Update – FPI Matrix
FPI is now diverging a little more from SP+ because Stanford, who it remains convinced is better than they are, is one third of the remaining game calculation. As you can see, the models have pretty similar opinions of Virginia and Georgia Tech. Get past Virginia and FPI will project about a 66% chance of going 11-1.
Week by Week Game Trends
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Consecutive impressive weeks in SP+ have the Irish trending strongly in the right direction as the regular season winds down. The Virginia game is big, and in fact could well be the key to earning a New Year’s Six spot. Any given Saturday, etc. etc., but Georgia Tech and Stanford are a pair of 3-6 teams in parallel free fall and should provide little resistance. The Vegas line for this weekend opened at Notre Dame -6 and has dropped down a bit to -5.5; I don’t know for sure but I would imagine action is slow early as bettors would want to have more clarity on Hoos QB Brennan Armstrong’s availability after maybe breaking his ribs a couple of weeks ago against BYU. SP+, which knows not nor cares not for such trifles, as the line at Notre Dame -3.5 – it really likes Virginia’s offense.
If you’re wondering, SP+ has the line for Georgia Tech as Irish -16.5, and for Stanford as Irish -19. That would be fun.
Great writeup as always! UVA’s defense in terms of yards/play I believe is the worst ND has seen so far, and possibly will all season (even worse than USC!) That gives me pause about UVA’s chances. At best they’re going to be UNC all over again, could well be another 44-34 game. Avoiding turnovers, or at least winning the TO battle will be key in this game. (And, it’s been a secret sauce for success in the past three games, with I believe just one turnover lately and even that was the contested catch against USC which shoulda/coulda not been a turnover, Anyways knocking on wood and saying more of that!).
Plus if you’re Bronco Mendenhall, you seriously have to question the wisdom of playing a banged up QB against this Notre Dame front 7…UVA’s following game is against Pitt, and I believe UVA can make the ACCCG if they win out in the conference. Next week is waaaay more important for their season than this game, if they get Armstrong taken out for good this week it would be really dumb. Not sure if that will factor in at all, but if it does, it probably will be in Notre Dame’s benefit.
Would be *very* funny for the ACC if, after scheduling a bunch of byes before the ND game for its teams, Virginia is just like “eh if we lose we lose”
i’ve wondered if some acc teams might start advocating for a bye post-nd with how physical they’ve been. they wrecked va tech this year, FSU last year, howell definitely seemed a bit banged up.
anyways always love these win probabilities as the season goes along and 10+wins becomes more of a certainty
You’re 100% right, but somehow I’m guessing UVA will throw the kitchen sink at us and have a special pregame lightshow with like Dave Matthews Band or something.
I’d be air drumming with Carter Beauford so damn hard.
Thanks!
They’re arguably notably better offensively than UNC and notably worse defensively, depending on who you ask. UNC ranks 4th in SP+ offense and 78th in SP+ defense, while Virginia ranks 7th and 82nd. In FPI, UNC ranks 18th in offense and 92nd in defense while Virginia ranks 7th and 113th; in FEI, UNC ranks 19th in offense and 89th in defense while Virginia ranks 8th and 103rd.
For my money SP+ has some weird stuff going on this year, I believe because of preseason rating stickiness as we touched on last week, so I’d put a little more weight on FPI and FEI’s rankings.
All that said, there’s an enormous difference between Virginia with Brennan Armstrong and without, and right now I’d lean towards him not playing. Bronco Mendenhall said the decision will come down to kickoff, but the tea leaves suggest he hasn’t been practicing since BYU. If they’re that concerned about the injury – which, again, is broken freaking ribs – I can’t imagine them exposing him to ND’s pass rush.
That goes double given they do indeed control their own destiny for the ACC CG, where their likely opponent would be the Wake Forest-NC State winner. That’s a winnable matchup for an ACC title, which would be the first outright championship in the program’s history; they joined the conference in 1953 and were co-champs with Duke in 1989 and Florida State in 1995, but have never won it outright.
“Brennan’s earned every opportunity to play even if he just looks out over the field from the balcony,” Mendenhall during his weekly news conference. “He trains so hard in mental reps and etc., so it literally is day to day. We’re going to give him every minute right until the ball’s kicked off to be our quarterback. The team knows that, I know that, he knows that. He’s earned that chance.”
Yeah, I think you’re right that Armstrong probably will play. Good luck with the mental reps, haha.
But I think Kelly basically said the same today about Kyle Hamilton — doesn’t need to practice to play, if he’s cleared and able to play ND will gladly put him out there against UVA.
Who knows if Kyle will play but it sure sounds like Armstrong will. Sounds kinda foolish from my perspective, however I get for Mendenhall you want to compete in every game and put your best foot forward at home against a highly ranked team.
Hell of a boost to the backup QB, making a prime-time start against a Top 10 team. “Well, we tried our damndest not to play you, but…..go get ’em kid.”
Sounds to me both coaches are saying the same thing. My read of it is Hamilton will play if Armstrong does, but only for as long as it takes Foskey to hit him once and then he is likely done. Perhaps Kelly is signaling I won’t play my All-American if you don’t play yours. Perhaps they will both try to go if the other does and see who lasts, or is needed, longer.
Book didn’t look so good the second week when he broke his ribs. Plus, running is a big part of Armstrong’s game, and some of it is necessary because their line is not all that good.
It probably depends on the amount of fracture (one or two or more?), which ribs probably matter more too. As I recall, Book broke a left rib but was right handed. Armstrong broke a left rib and is left handed, don’t now if that matters.
Read article at ISD
Injured and out for season
Liufau
Moala
Simon
Wilkins
Berrong
Jojo
Ekwonu
Davis
Fisher
*Hamilton*
Injured and back
Buchner
Tyree
Mayer
Lenzy
Hinish
Tyree
Carmody
Bothelo
Kollie
Bauman
That’s a pretty long list….
Tyree is so injured he’s on there twice?
Turf toe is severely underrated
Cue Blazing Saddles: “You said that one twice.” “It’s my favorite one.”