As we head towards week 11 I think this will be a bit of a let down from pre-season expectations. Indiana visiting Penn State could’ve been a big one, but the Nittany Lions are reeling after 5 straight losses and a blowout defeat to Ohio State last week. How about Florida State visiting Clemson in prime time? This is typically the crown jewel rivalry in the modern ACC and that game has been bumped off to the league network.
2025 Betting Record
Against the Spread: 40-42
Straight Up: 53-29
Vanderbilt came storming back against Texas and nearly back door covered a 2.5 point spread after trailing 34-10 to start the 4th quarter. I finished week 10 3-4 against the spread and had I missed that game it would’ve been a huge gut punch. A solid 5-2 week straight up moves me forward.
Week 11 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the *new* CFP Rankings.
Tulane [+5.5] at Memphis
Friday, November 7, 9:00 PM, ESPN
Tulane dropped an ugly conference game last week to UTSA but has a very friendly run in to close out the season…after this visit to Memphis. The Tigers, also sitting on 1 conference loss given their own weird defeat to UAB a few weeks ago, have a looming date with Navy to end the regular season. With 6 AAC teams sitting with 1 loss in league play there’s still a lot to play for, although this Friday night tilt in the Bluff City is likely an elimination game (for the G5 playoff spot too). I like Tulane in a nice bounce back spot.
Tulane 38
Memphis 34
#7 BYU [+10.5] at #8 Texas Tech
Saturday, November 8, 12:00 PM, ABC
I’m not an expert in TV scheduling. This game kicking off at Noon, given the rest of the slate this weekend at night, feels wrong. It’s a big miss for the Big 12 trying its best to get as many eyeballs on their conference as possible.
Awesome uniforms.
Texas Tech has quarterback Behren Morton is back and the advanced stats say this is a legit playoff team with a decent shot at making a run to the National Championship. In contrast, BYU has been a solid-to-good team that looks like it’s due for a loss. Surely, I mean surely, Texas Tech handles their business at home, right? Utah may hope otherwise, but these teams could meet again in the Big 12 Championship.
Texas Tech 27
BYU 23
#3 Texas A&M [-6.5] at #22 Missouri
Saturday, November 8, 3:30 PM, ABC
The Missouri “we never win big games and love to reside in the bottom of the rankings as a decent team” Tigers host the top team in the SEC while starting a true freshman quarterback. Alarm bells are going off, why is Vegas expecting this to be a close game? Winning is hard? Are we going to see A&M with their first big offensive clunker of the season against a stingy Missouri defense? There must be a high chance of A&M stepping on their you-know-what on the road but I think it’s more likely Matt Zollers crumbles against this Aggies defense.
Texas A&M 31
Missouri 17
#9 Oregon [-6.5] at #20 Iowa
Saturday, November 8, 3:30 PM, CBS
It was clear that the CFP committee didn’t love Oregon in this week’s initial rankings. They are 3rd in SP+ but the resume is awfully right now. I don’t think it’s close, the Ducks’ best win to date is…Northwestern. That’s not good! They will have a chance this weekend to add something to this dusty resume.
Even more awesome uniforms.
Iowa’s defense has been very efficient this year and their offense has been not-terrible. This is the first meeting for these teams as Big Ten foes, and Oregon’s first visit to Iowa City since 1989. I know I mentioned that Oregon is pretty lock-ish for a playoff spot but if they lose this game I think they’re out. They could fall to 6th in the Big Ten and won’t make the league championship, either.
Oregon 20
Iowa 18
LSU [+9.5] at #4 Alabama
Saturday, November 8, 7:30 PM, ABC
A few years ago, Brian Kelly upset Alabama in overtime during his first season in Baton Rouge. He beat Nick Saban! Fast forward to today, Saban is retired, Kelly lost the next two games to Alabama by a combined 84-41, and he doesn’t get a 4th shot at the Tide after being punted by the program 10 days ago. This is LSU’s first game back with an interim coach and Alabama is marching forward to a top playoff seed with an appearance in the SEC Championship. Could this actually get really ugly for LSU?
Alabama 34
LSU 14
So, we need Texas Tech to win, and then win again in the B12 championship game, to avoid having more than one B12 team in the CFP? Is that sort of correct?
I’m more worried about our warts getting fixed than how the playoff rankings shake out. The thought of missing a short FG or not making a 4th and one, to lose a game, distresses me much more.
I think given that we came in so strong at 10, we can focus on finishing ahead of all the Big 12 teams (meaning it’s ok if 2 big 12 teams make it, they would likely both be behind us in that scenario). We need each of Texas tech and byu to lose another game for that to happen. But the committee has shown some erratic behavior in regarding conference championship losses (Penn State didn’t budge, SMU dropped). Let’s win out too!
Well… absolutely, both of you! The only thing that counts is what we can control, and that is winning out. And yes, our kicking and short yardage woes are a big, big concern.
Indeed, does Brandon Aubrey have a younger brother on the soccer team by chance?
Well, yes, you both. The biggest thing is to win out. Starting with the Squids!