Notre Dame will learn its fate for the playoffs in just a couple more days. But first, the cabal of television partners disguised as conference mates need to play their league championship games to provide more clarity to the 2025 season. The final CFP selection show will take place on Sunday, December 7th beginning at Noon ET for a ridiculous THREE HOURS. Buckle up, it’s going to be an anxious and nerve-racking weekend of football and I can’t wait to experience it.
2025 Betting Record
Against the Spread: 59-55
Straight Up: 76-38
Rolling in the dough.
Folks, last week’s picks went out there and straight dominated. I’m talking about a scorching 9-2 against the spread scoring big, big bucks into the 18 Stripes money vault. It was a rare week where the straight up picks (8-3) weren’t as strong as the spread picks. Let’s hope I can hang on to remain over .500 against the spread with conference championship picks remaining.
Week 15 Games to Watch
All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the CFP Committee.Â
Sun Belt Championship
Troy [+23.5] at #25 James Madison
Friday, December 5, 7:00 PM, ESPN
Gerad Parker is in a league title game in just his second season with Troy. To be fair, it’s been a very down year for this conference with recently strong teams like Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, and Texas State taking a step back in 2025. No one is under the illusion that this Troy team is any good.
James Madison is in an interesting situation. After the Cig left for Indiana their current head coach Bob Chesney has accepted the UCLA but would stay with the Dukes should they make the playoffs. James Madison is rooting for Duke to win the ACC Championship and then for the committee to keep the Dukes ahead of the Blue Devils in the final rankings, likely shutting out the ACC for good.
James Madison 41
Troy 21
American Championship
#24 North Texas [-2.5] at #20 Tulane
Friday, December 5, 8:00 PM, ABC
Win and you’re in. Heading into the weekend, Tulane is the highest ranked G5 team in the country from the committee rankings, although they are not favored at home against North Texas.
Adding more intrigue, Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall (42-11 across 4 seasons as a head coach) is headed to Florida when the post-season concludes. Similarly, North Texas head coach Eric Morris (11-14 in his first 2 seasons with the Mean Green before this year’s blossoming) is waiting to head to Oklahoma State when this season ends.
Someone is making the playoffs.Â
We have a great uniform matchup, too. It’s important! A win for North Texas would be amazing and such a surprising rise in 2025. It sounds like too much of a good story, though. I’ll go with the home team sneaking this out late.
Tulane 34
North Texas 31
Mountain West Championship
UNLV [+4] at Boise State
Friday, December 5, 8:00 PM, Fox
As discussed in this week’s Rooting Interests by Mike the Mountain West Championship could play a role in Notre Dame making, or not making, the playoffs. Boise State has won SO MANY conference championships since they became a Good program. Two titles in the Big West, 8 titles in the WAC, and this would be their 6th title in the Mountain West.
UNLV has never won a conference title in program history (stretching back to 1968) and they’ve lost the last 2 Mountain West Championships to these Boise State Broncos. The tradition continues and Notre Dame’s resume gets a tiny boost.
Boise State 33
UNLV 27
Big 12 ChampionshipÂ
#11 BYU [+12.5] vs. #4 Texas Tech (Arlington, TX)
Saturday, December 6, 12:00 PM, ABC
Okay, here’s the game that really matters this weekend for Irish fans. If Texas Tech holds serve, Notre Dame is very likely in the playoffs and possibly heading to a very winnable game in Norman against Oklahoma. If BYU pulls the upset, we’re in trouble.
Tech has been in the Big 12 since 1996 and has never won the conference. That, plus securing a top 4 seed and a bye, should be plenty of motivation for this team. Although, I do worry about weird neutral site vibes for a Noon kickoff (11 AM local) and the general difficulties of beating the same team twice in one year, or in this case twice in a month.
The Red Raiders are legit this year.
Texas Tech’s defense should travel. They’ve allowed 16 points over their last 3 games, which includes the previous BYU victory where the Cougars were bottled up for 255 total yards (3.9 yards per play). I’m still prepared for chaos and to sweat this one out until the end.
Texas Tech 24
BYU 20
SEC ChampionshipÂ
#3 Georgia [-2.5] vs. #9 Alabama (Atlanta, GA)
Saturday, December 6, 4:00 PM, ABC
College football is dumb because Alabama got praise for a gritty, close victory over a poor Auburn team, moved up one spot in the committee rankings, technically won the SEC regular season title, and isn’t favored against a Georgia team they’ve already beaten this year. So, for the 4th time in 8 years we get the Dawgs vs. the Crimson Tide for the SEC crown. Alabama, most famously, carries a 3-game winning streak (and 10 out of the last 11) against Georgia.
It’s weird, Alabama really hasn’t looked very good since the 2nd half of the Vanderbilt game back on October 4th (with the win against Georgia the prior week). Outside of the Eastern Illinois game, the Tide are only +44 in point differential over their last 6 games against FBS teams. Half a season! Alabama has been so bad running the ball, Georgia has to find a way to finally beat them in this spotlight.
Georgia 20
Alabama 14
Big Ten Championship
#2 Indiana [+4] vs. #1 Ohio State (Indianapolis, IN)
Saturday, December 6, 8:00 PM, Fox
It’s no. 1 in the country vs. no. 2, game of the century! Except, well, this game kind of doesn’t matter all that much in the current playoff format. The loser probably hangs on to a top 4 seed and a bye unless something really crazy happens. Then it’ll come down to random matchups thereafter. This game is interesting from a perspective of “can Indiana actually compete and win a National Championship?” or show they could win a re-match down the road in the playoffs. Other than that, I’m weirdly disinterested.
This is also not-so-quietly only Indiana’s 4th game against a ranked opponent in the Cignetti era. At times, this Ohio State team has looked very beatable (especially getting a little bogged down offensively) but I need to see the Hoosiers winning first to believe they are really on this level.
Ohio State 35
Indiana 23
ACC ChampionshipÂ
Duke [+3.5] vs. #17 Virginia (Charlotte, NC)
Saturday, December 6, 8:00 PM, ABC
So many people are mad at Notre Dame right now but the ACC has no one to blame for their current predicament except themselves. Due to ineptness on the field, untimely losses (looking at you, Miami!), and ridiculous tie-breakers we get to see a 5-loss(!!) Duke team face a Virginia team whom they lost to 3 weeks ago. This is the same Virginia team that has yet to face a single ranked team in the 2025 college football season.
Won’t someone talk about Virginia!?
No one is talking about this Virginia team which is fascinating and funny. Tony Elliott was supposed to be fired this year, and with all the national coaching chaos not only did he survive but he’s thrived with a 10-win season and possible playoff appearance. Their best win is either Louisville or this Duke team, but still. Both of these teams protect the ball really well and Virginia is basically a poor man’s version of 2025 Georgia Tech. They’ve been sufficiently tough and should beat Duke again.
Virginia 27
Duke 23
Would love to share optimism that TTU win = ND is in but I’m not confident the committee won’t swap ND/Miami given that they’re now in the same bucket. Keeping ND above Miami despite head-head would be an interesting precedent and saw some discussion on how it may disincentivize teams from scheduling ND going forward. Interesting times in that there are already negative consequences to conference championships and playing in a large conference; the earth shifting below football’s feet while traditions fall.
I currently suspect Bama falls back to 10 if they lose, if only to minimize rematches. In that case, we keep a buffer.
If Bama wins and BYU gets blown out? Then it might get dicey.
Anyone suggesting playing ND isn’t beneficial clearly hasn’t thought about what this year would like like for Miami if they didn’t play ND. Miami would still have 2 weak losses and probably be ranked next to UVA.
If they truly think they are better than ND, they should want to play us every year, because we are beatable and that the committee over ranks us given them a better perceived win.
Well, TTU win plus Virginia win will likely do it. Knocking BYU is crucial, but a Virginia win means the ACC isn’t left out and the committee won’t feel nearly as much pressure to reconsider Miami. If Duke wins, the only way the ACC doesn’t get shutout is if Miami is raised up (even with a JMU loss). Miami is basically the 4th place team in the ACC and really should be penalized for that, but the blowback from that might not be the kind of drama ESPN is looking for (maybe it is, idk) so a Duke win makes me nervous.
And now i find it extremely frustrating that ND has to wait until 2027 to punish Virginia for this lol
The Chesney to UCLA move has me wondering just how much sway and irritation with PSU, Jimmy Sexton has. Chesney’s roots are in PA. and on the east coast. It seems more logical to stay in the east. He’s a Sexton client and scuttlebutt is Sexton wants to stick it to PSU. Being a Chesney fan, I think he would have done great in the valley. Rumors of the game vs. GA. determining DeBoer’s future add to the wackiness.
I saw that story about Sexton steering coaches away from PSU. Like you, I’m really surprised that Chesney didn’t buck his agent and go to the school that seems to be a much better fit for his background. Perhaps PSU wasn’t as high on Chesney?
At this point, it looks like it will be the mystery box for PSU. Possibilities seem to be Deboer (if he secretly hates it at Bama), Daboll from the NYG, or MF who has been playing coy this whole time and waiting for ND’s season to end.*
*I’m kidding about that last part…I hope
Boy those UNT unis are solid. I’m not usually a green on white guy, but those are working.
So, it might come down to Duke or the Dukes?