Now we’re getting into the thick of conference schedules. We’ve messed around on the edges a little bit and this weekend some proper bangers are headed our way to start separating teams and developing some early playoff rankings. Normally, Alabama and Georgia would carry the weekend but we have a huge Big Ten matchup (still feels weird to type) as Oregon travels all the way to Pennsylvania.

2025 Betting Record

Against the Spread: 17-20
Straight Up: 21-16

A really solid week for me, the best of the season so far. I was 6-4 against the spread and 7-3 straight up throughout Week 4. I missed on the Illinois-Indiana game badly and that one hurts. I was not alone.

Week 5 Games to Watch

All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP Poll.

#24 TCU [+2.5] at Arizona State
Friday, September 26, 9:00 PM, Fox

TCU has been hot lately and is coming off a big win in the Iron Skillet rivalry over SMU. I partly expected them to be favored on the road here. The Sun Devils have been off the radar a little bit following their early-season loss to Mississippi State. I’m not sure ASU is really that great this year, each of these teams have faced a couple power programs so far and TCU is averaging nearly 2 yards per play more on offense. Arizona State has been much more middling. I like the road dogs outright on Friday night in Tempe.

TCU 37
Arizona State 27

#21 USC [-6.5] at #23 Illinois
Saturday, September 27, 12:00 PM, Fox

Tough bounce back spot for Illinois coming off a generational loss at Indiana last week. People thought Illinois had a good defense after giving up a combined 22 points through 3 games only to surrender 63 points and nearly 600 yards to the Hoosiers. Perhaps USC is a little sleepy for this Noon start heading back to the Midwest, though? I think Illinois can move the ball well enough but will get outclassed in the end. Here’s another road win, except for a favorite.

It went from good to bad for Illinois. 

USC 32
Illinois 20

#4 LSU [+1.5] at #13 Ole Miss
Saturday, September 27, 3:30 PM, ABC

LSU isn’t favored because the Trinidad Chambliss Heiman Hype Train is about to take off to the moon. Many are pointing to the Notre Dame game as the one with the most points this weekend, instead I think it’ll be here with these two offenses trading blows.

Ole Miss 52
LSU 50

Auburn [+6.5] at #9 Texas A&M
Saturday, September 27, 3:30 PM, ESPN

I think we’re going to see a similar scenario to last year where A&M gets to the back half of their schedule with a great chance to play for the SEC Championship before a late collapse. I’ll note they end the season at Texas. Some teams in the SEC have crazy tough schedules, but not really the Aggies. This might be their 3rd toughest game remaining (depending on how you view Missouri). I think these teams are a little closer than Vegas predicts but the Aggies just barely hold on at home.

Texas A&M 27
Auburn 24

#11 Indiana [-7.5] at Iowa
Saturday, September 27, 3:30 PM, Peacock

I mean, if the team that showed up last weekend is here the Hoosiers win this one going away. Not so fast! This has not been a friendly matchup for Indiana (only 1 win in Iowa City since 2001) and they are sure to come back down to earth a little bit from last week’s demolition of Illinois. I can get with a fairly close spread but I can’t trust an Iowa offense barely throwing for 100 yards per game against this explosive Indiana team. Against my better judgement that a letdown is coming I’ll pick the Hoosiers to cover.

Classic let down game this weekend for Indiana, beware.

Indiana 33
Iowa 19

#6 Oregon [+3.5] at #3 Penn State
Saturday, September 27, 7:30 PM, NBC

Fox Big Noon Kickoff will be at Illinois this weekend and of course ESPN College GameDay is setting up shop in Happy Valley. This is only the 2nd meeting in the last 30 years between these (now) conference mates although it’s a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship played 9 months ago–an Oregon win in a high scoring affair. This is a White Out game for Penn State and I think it’s interesting to see Oregon travel nearly 2,700 miles to play in one of the toughest environments in college football. Can we believe the Nittany Lions will actually win a big game like this? Not me.

Oregon 29
Penn State 24

#17 Alabama [+2.5] at #5 Georgia
Saturday, September 27, 7:30 PM, ABC

Such is this big time weekend for viewing that this matchup isn’t the GameDay location on Saturday. I’ve been trying to fade Georgia and pump up Alabama since the pre-season and I’m not going to stop now. This will be my 4th road pick of the weekend. But, I’m really curious to see the Kalen DeBoer reaction if the Tide lose. It would drop him to 11-6 at Alabama.

Alabama 21
Georgia 19