For me, putting this poll together and publishing it is the unofficial start of the college football season. It’s time to gear up for another year of collegiate lunacy and the 134th season of Notre Dame football as the Fighting Irish have gone 33 straight seasons without a National Championship. Can we PLEASE break that streak and have some damn fun?
Notre Dame is predicted to start in the top 10 for 2022 in just about every poll on the internet, including ours today on 18 Stripes. Both the AP and Coaches Poll have Notre Dame starting 5th this season. Things at the top are very easy to predict. After that, well, it’s about to get controversial up in here.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | NEXT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 0-0 | vs. Utah State |
| 2 | Ohio State | 0-0 | vs. Notre Dame |
| 3 | Georgia | 0-0 | vs. Oregon |
| 4 | USC | 0-0 | vs. Rice |
| 5 | Clemson | 0-0 | at Georgia Tech |
| 6 | Utah | 0-0 | at Florida |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 0-0 | vs. Sam Houston St. |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 0-0 | at Ohio State |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | 0-0 | vs. Central Michigan |
| 10 | NC State | 0-0 | at East Carolina |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 0-0 | vs. UTEP |
| 12 | Tennessee | 0-0 | vs. Ball State |
| 13 | Michigan | 0-0 | vs. Colorado St. |
| 14 | Miami | 0-0 | vs. Bethune-Cookman |
| 15 | Arkansas | 0-0 | vs. Cincinnati |
| 16 | Iowa | 0-0 | vs. South Dakota St. |
| 17 | BYU | 0-0 | at USF |
| 18 | Texas | 0-0 | vs. UL-Monroe |
| 19 | Michigan State | 0-0 | vs. Western Michigan |
| 20 | Air Force | 0-0 | vs. Northern Iowa |
A Clear Top 3
This has to be the easiest and most obvious top 3 to rank in the pre-season in quite some time. Georgia is replacing so much production that they are a clear 3rd for me but carry such a high ceiling defensively, and will be solid enough on offense, to run the table in the regular season. Too bad they don’t face Alabama during the regular season.
We seemed destined for another, “Does the loser of the SEC Title Game deserve to still make the playoffs and maybe be ranked higher than 4th to avoid a re-match?” set of arguments.
Wait, USC at 4 You Absolute Moron!?
Let me explain myself!
I usually roll my eyes when people talk about a lack of top teams outside of the handful of known quantities as if the sport has ever been contested among 15 super strong programs duking it out with each other. So many teams have flaws, even major ones, every season yet some of them will go on to win 11 or 12 games anyway.
I don’t know who you put in that No. 4 spot pre-season and feel comfortable with that decision. Both of the major polls have Clemson in that spot and the Tigers’ offense was just as bad as the USC defense last year–and I think the loss of Brent Venables will hurt Clemson immediately and take their biggest strength down a notch.
My thinking with USC is that Lincoln Riley is a very good coach, USC hasn’t had one of those in over a decade, and his presence could immediately pay dividends. Their Caleb Williams-led offense also has the potential to be dynamic and maybe the best in the country.
I know people will harp about the poor defense but it’ll get a lot better with Alex Grinch coordinating. And if their offensive line scares you, Riley can scheme around that especially in the Pac-12. Their schedule is also pretty friendly from a Pac-12 that should be very winnable in 2022.
Just on the Outside
Baylor
Penn State
Wake Forest
Kentucky
Houston
I genuinely like Penn State and Houston this year. The Nittany Lions bring back a lot, should be really solid across the board, but are held back by an absolutely vanilla Sean Clifford at quarterback. I’ve got Houston winning the AAC, although I’m betting the league is a lot more wide open than people expect. Holgorsen will have their offense humming, but they could also do something stupid like lose a road game at Navy.
I’ll talk about Baylor below, I’m a little miffed by their hype (10th in both polls). Additionally, Wake Forest would’ve been a fine choice for the back end of my top 20 until we found out quarterback Sam Hartman (who feels like he’s been with the Deacons since 2009) will be missing some time. They face Clemson in late September and it seems like they’ll still be playing their backup quarterback which is a bummer.
College Football Playoff Prediction
Fiesta Bowl – #2 Ohio State vs. #3 USC
Peach Bowl – #1 Alabama vs. #4 Clemson
Hey, I didn’t put Georgia in the playoffs! I think there’s a distinct possibility that Notre Dame beats Clemson and just about 1 month later the Tigers are booking their trip to the playoffs.
NY6 Bowl Predictions
Cotton Bowl – Houston vs. Texas A&M
Rose Bowl – Utah vs. Michigan
Orange Bowl – Notre Dame vs. NC State
Sugar Bowl – Georgia vs. Oklahoma State
Another major bowl game–this time after a full season of Marcus Freeman–would be pretty fun. A matchup with NC State would be just about as winnable as you’re going to find in this spotlight if you’re Notre Dame. Could we be so lucky? I suppose people would’ve said the same thing about Oklahoma State last year and we bottled that, so.
Hype for NC State what could go wrong?
I realize I have Notre Dame facing the pre-season No. 2, No. 4, No. 5, and No. 17 teams. I think this will be a year where everyone outside of the top 3 or 4 will have at least 2 losses. So, the Irish could probably lose to Ohio State and USC (I suppose this is my prediction when it comes down to it) and still make the Orange Bowl.
*** The Top 25 Out of Conference (and Cross-Divisional) Games of 2022 ***
Hardest Schedule
Arkansas
The Razorbacks have a lot of positive momentum coming off a solid 9-4 season. If you’re into fading them because, well, it’s Arkansas you can also point to their schedule as another reason they are unlikely to stay ranked in 2022.
Arkansas opens up hosting Cincinnati and then turns around and plays a Noon game the following week against what could be an improved South Carolina team. They’ll get a breather against Missouri State then have to play their rivalry game in Arlington against Texas A&M followed up by Alabama coming to Fayetteville a week later. Then, before their bye week they have a trip to Starkville and then amazingly decided to travel to Provo and play BYU.
A 1-6 or 2-5 start wouldn’t be ridiculous for the Hogs.
THEN, they visit Auburn, play a Malik Willis-less but maybe not terrible Liberty, and finish the season hosting LSU and Ole Miss, before traveling to Missouri.
It’s wild, Arkansas doesn’t face any of the perceived 4 strongest teams from the SEC East (Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky) and yet their schedule is brutal.
Easiest Schedule
Michigan
This is an embarrassment of a schedule from Michigan and if there is any justice in this world should lead to their program closing for eternity. These clowns open the season with a trio of non-Power 5 opponents (Colorado State, Hawaii, UConn), all at home, against programs that lost a combined 27(!) games last year. That’s it, that’s the out-of-conference slate.
Shame on this coach who is morphing into an old lunch lady.
Their most difficult games do include Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan State with the first two coming on the road. But their only other road games will be Indiana and Rutgers.
Michigan could genuinely not be very good going through a huge defensive rebuild with plenty of questions on offense (are they juggling quarterbacks??) and still go 10-2. I really didn’t want to put them in the pre-season top 20 but are they ever going to fall out of the rankings with this pathetic schedule?
Top 3 Darkhorse Teams
Penn State – Mentioned above, they are going to be solid and need to be a team that upsets the cart a little bit in the Big Ten. For example, they need to beat Michigan with the Wolverines coming off back-to-back road visits to Iowa and Indiana, which, I have to type this in all sincerity, will be the toughest stretch of Michigan’s schedule.
Florida – How about buying some early Billy Napier stock? This is the least amount Florida has been discussed during the pre-season (losing 7 games will do that I suppose) in what feels like a million years. Yes, their schedule does them absolutely no favors (Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, A&M, FSU) but I think they have the tools to win all of these non-Georgia/A&M games and surprise a little bit in Napier’s first season.
LSU – The Tigers come into 2022 without being ranked for the first time since 1974 (or roughly something approximate to that) so welcome to the Bayou, coach Kelly! Here’s the thing with the SEC, though. We have teams like Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Auburn who all are expected to be better than LSU, according to some. But, you know what? LSU still has a lot of talent, brought in a ton of talent through the Portal, and could have a decent 10-3 type of year.
Top 3 Stay Away Teams
Baylor – I’m guessing people see Baylor as defending league champions, Oklahoma going through a lot of change, and are trusting Dave Aranda to keep the momentum going from 2021. I see a roster replacing a lot of talent, an offense not particularly explosive looking, and picture a team not quite good enough to be in the top 10. In fact, I straight up kept them out of my poll.
Oregon – I’m going to sell the Dan Lanning hire for the Ducks. I’ve got weird vibes with him and think it’ll be a difficult fit. The schedule isn’t friendly (Georgia & BYU early!) although they do miss USC in league play.
Selling my ducks bucks.
I just think quarterback Bo Nix is going to take this team on a wild ride that could be closer to 7-5 than anything else approaching 11-1 and a league title.
Cincinnati – Everyone is gone from 2021. Cincinnati had a handful of generational players in their program and they’ve all moved on for the most part. I like Luke Fickell but I don’t like him that much that he’ll be able to magically keep this program in the top 20 all season. Their schedule is pretty easy so 10-2 is squarely in play but a really ugly 8-4 where they lose to every decent team is also in play.
Week 0/1 Games to Watch
From our top 20 ranked teams we have 15 games against non-Power 5 opponents in week 0/1 with just 2 games between Power 5 opponents being played on a campus.
Nebraska (-13) vs. Northwestern [Dublin, Ireland]
Scott Frost’s buyout is cut in half ($5 million to $2.5 million) after this 2022 season. Would they leave him in the Dublin airport if they lose to Northwestern, though?
West Virginia (+7) at Pittsburgh
It’s the return of the Backyard Brawl after a 10-year absence. I have to say, I don’t really care. I can’t believe GameDay picked this for a Thursday night location but it’s their money. Pat Narduzzi is going to make his team run the ball 75 times and lose by 10 points.
Penn State (-3) at Purdue
This is year 6 for Jeff Brohm at Purdue already, somehow. After making my top 3 darkhorse list I’d hate for Penn State to drop this opener (no I wouldn’t). This should be a very entertaining night game next Thursday.
North Carolina (-2) at Appalachian State
Mack Brown heads into this game having lost 9 out of his last 17 games at North Carolina. None of those defeats have come to a Group of 5 team, though. He probably didn’t want to open up on the road against frisky App State to christen the post-Sam Howell world.
Cincinnati (+7) at Arkansas
According to the AP this is the no. 23 Bearcats visiting the no. 19 Razorbacks. Big game! I’ve been a little more tepid in my praise of Luke Fickell than most. If he wins this with so many new players, damn.
Oregon (+17.5) vs. Georgia [Atlanta, Georgia]
What are the odds Bo Nix finishes this game without being benched?
Utah (-2.5) at Florida
My favorite game of the week. Here comes Utah off a Pac-12 title and their best season in over a decade with Florida licking their wounds from a disastrous 2021. If I’m right about the Gators surprising relative to expectations this is potentially a big first win for Billy Napier.
Florida State (+3) vs. LSU [New Orleans, Louisiana]
This series was signed in early 2020 and I’m sure no one expected both programs to be unranked when they meet on Sunday, September 4th in primetime on ABC inside the Caesars Superdome. This is one of those games where Brian Kelly has to win at all costs. You don’t want the Bayou natives getting restless after your very first game.
Clemson (-21.5) vs. Georgia Tech [Atlanta, Georgia]
I am including this game because it’s on Labor Day in primetime and the Yellow Jackets damn near stole a win in this rock fight of a matchup last year. Let’s hope these teams can go over the combined 22 points scored last year.
We’ll be back in 2 weeks after the first full weekend of games are completed. Welcome back, football.
10 teams from those Week 0/1 matchups listed in this article are in the top 30 for National Title betting odds. Georgia is the only one that I could see losing and still potentially making the playoff. It often feels like that first week is really lacking in interesting games, but there’s plenty here I would be excited to watch even 8 or 9 weeks into the season, when I’ve started to burn out a little on football. Should be a fun start to the season, and hopefully ND can top that off with a little extra magic to really start things right!
Football is back, baby.
Wouldn’t it be great if there is a playoff bid at stake on Nov.26th in the Coliseum?
This, but a nice bourbon.
Everyone knows Kenneth is a Gin fiend
I think SC’s optimistic scenario for 2022 is something like Michigan State’s 2021 — a transfer-heavy, all-offense team with a very flawed defense that lucks their way to 10 wins and also gets dismantled in at least one game along the way.
SC’s two biggest problems — lines and culture — are both problems that take multiple years to fix, and their shiny new head coach has no track record of fixing or rebuilding anything, ever. I think their most likely scenario is a boring 8-4 season where they just beat bad teams and lose to good ones.
Very very nervous that we’re going to look back at 2022 and your final sentence will be the perfect descriptor of ND’s season.
Welcome back, football?
Actually I would think with a bunch of transfers it would be much easier to change the culture quickly. It seems to be what Kelly is doing at LSU (who also had a lot of transfers).
Last year’s GTech/Clemson rock fight inspired this out of me at the time. I’d forgotten about that until now!
Unfortunately I’m going to be that guy. Seeing as this is one person’s opinion, shouldn’t this be called a “ranking” and not a “poll”?
BTW, that was a gutsy call to put USC so high. I think that they will be much improved from the Helton era, but I still think they are a year away from being a dominant top 5 team
“F-in Eric!” (In Suzy’s voice)
It’s a one-person poll.
Actually, I have people call 1-800-888-1818 with their top 20 and then I average their ballots.
A one person poll usually comes with a dancer
Michigan had a home-and-home scheduled with UCLA for 2022 and 2023, but canceled it because…reasons. I hope ESPN goes after their schedule relentlessly this year, especially now that the B1G is leaving Disney.
What reasons were those?
Is this a prediction of where you think they will finished ranked in the AP poll (basically their record) or how good you think they will be (more tied to their FEI or S&P ranking)?
The former, for sure.
I think having Notre Dame lower than the polls is fair. I think they’ll be somewhere between the 8th and 12th best team certainly with upside for more if we get towards the top of possible expected outcomes for Buchner. I also think the 2022 team will be our worst team for the foreseeable future so get us this year!
This-year USC is objectively one of the most interesting college football teams going into a season of my entire lifetime. Would I be surprised if they make the playoffs? Absolutely not. Would I be surprised if they go 6-6? Also absolutely not.
Yea they have a chance to just have an absolute elite offense if they are just average on the OL. And if the defense can just be ok instead of a dumpster fire it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to see them run the table. They have Utah and ND as top 25 teams for the regular season. Then maybe Utah or Oregon in a championship game. I’m not sure about Utah (I suspect they may be a bit overrated after a strong performance last year) but Bo Nix (Oregon) doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in taking advantage of a weak defense.
I’d be pretty surprised if they made the playoffs. I think you guys are underestimating how unusual it is to go from winning 4 games to winning 11+ (which is what they would need to do to make the playoffs) in a single season. ND didn’t even do that in our turnaround from 2016 to 2017, and we were starting with a team that had a positive total scoring margin in the 4-win year.
SC was really bad last year. Their only wins were San Jose State, Wazzu, Arizona, and Colorado. Significant improvement for them would be going better than .500 against mediocre opponents. That would get them to somewhere between 7-5 and 9-3. Going 12-1 or 13-0 to make the playoffs would be one of the more dramatic turnarounds in the sport’s history. It’s not impossible, but it’s really not likely at all.
Your comment presumes relatively normal turnover/improvement from one year to the next. But with the transfer portal things are different. And USC among other things got a top offensive coach (top 5-7 overall maybe?), a top 3 QB, and the #1 WR. I don’t think you can compare this with any other offseason in the history of the game actually.
What other offseason could ever compare getting actual top 3 players at a position (not just potentially elite players) at two of the most important positions for scoring points with an upgrade to a top tier head coach?
That’s certainly fair. The other way of looking at it is that SC didn’t address their biggest problems, and is just a supercharged version of what they were before, which was a very talented offensive skill team that….won four games.
Any team that triples their win total from one season to the next is surprising to me, portal or no. That is what SC would have to do to make the playoffs, so them making the playoffs would be surprising.
I would be surprised with you as well.
Yea but that team you describe kind of sounds like an OSU team (when they have a shaky D) or an Oklahoma team with their high-powered offense and sometimes shaky defense – both of which have made the playoffs. (I think OSU has done so with a shaky defense but I’m actually not sure about that – maybe they only made it when they have pretty solid defenses but Oklahoma has done so and with the talent OSU had last year – when they did have a shaky D – no one would have been surprised if they made the playoffs.)
I dont see any utility in comparing USC 2021 to 2022. They had Helton and then basically no coaches at all. The whole year was a wash, they didn’t lose their games because of talent, it was due to being a complete poopstorm.
Add in Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison and Lincoln Riley and I don’t care if they were 0-12 last year, this year is going to be completely different. You mentioned the change from ND 2016 -> 2017, and I think that is apt for USC when you go from a mess (BVG) to competency, all of a sudden the results shift.
That said, I doubt they make the playoffs this season, but other than Utah they don’t play anyone of consequence until ND the final week. Even with a bit of a cushion, if they’re less than 9-2 coming into ND week, I’d be surprised.
To be clear, I do not think USC is going to make the playoffs, because I do not think any particular team is likely to make the playoffs outside of Bama/UGA/Ohio State. I do think, however, they’re about as likely as anyone outside of those three other than maybe Clemson because of all that. I’d give them similar odds to Michigan/Oklahoma/Utah, and probably better odds than ND/A&M/Okie State/Baylor or anybody else.
I would also give them the best odds of all aforementioned teams of going .500 or worse. They’re really fascinating.
Yes, I agree with you on that. There’s just a very high ceiling (playoffs) and a low floor (if their weakness turn out to be really weak) with them.
It has been an entire offseason of having the sads for my Trojan mini Weis.
I will miss seeing him in ND stadium more than I will miss CBK.
Nice to see noted G5 Powers BYU, Michigan, and Air Force in the Top 20!
(Also please let me live in a world where Air Force makes a NY6 bowl. I love that chaos scenario)