PROLOGUE
Here are some interesting stats . . .
BOB DAVIE – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND
15-7 Record; +111 point differential. 3-4 vs. Ranked Opponents
TY WILLINGHAM – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND
12-10 Record; -42 point differential. 5-6 vs. Ranked Opponents
CHARLIE WEIS – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND
18-4 Record; +254 point differential. 4-3 vs. Ranked Opponents
BRIAN KELLY – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND
15-7 Record; +182 point differential. 2-1 vs. Ranked Opponents
BRIAN KELLY – FINAL 22 GAMES AT ND
19-3 Record; +303 point differential. 3-3 vs. Ranked Opponents
MARCUS FREEMAN – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND (excl. 2021 Fiesta Bowl)
16-6 Record; +321 point differential. 6-4 vs. Ranked Opponents
It’s interesting – we’re two or three plays against Marshall/Stanford/Ohio State from being right square in the most unambiguously impressive stretch of games for ND football since Holtz.
Not that point differential is everything; you could also look at something like Yards per Play (+2.5 on the year, basically a yard better than anything else in the CFBStats Era), or EPA (h/t Parker Fleming):
There’s an abundance of evidence that Marcus Freeman has stepped things up for Notre Dame in a big way. But things have felt much more volatile. Why? Because we have seen some randomly terrible performances by Freeman coached squads, especially against mediocre teams.
Coming into the season, consensus expectations were for Saturday’s tilt with Clemson to sit as one of ND’s “Big Three” games on the year. If Clemson were Top 10, we’d be nervous but not, perhaps, apprehensive; being at a point where we can feel confident that ND under Freeman is going to show up in big games. Instead we are going to take on a 4-4 ACC squad in an early window game, and it’s terrifying!
LOOKING AT THE MATCHUP
Clemson Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
TigerIllustrated reports here that #Clemson starting left guard Macus Tate suffered a knee injury in practice and will be out for an extended period, perhaps the rest of the season. TI also reports LT Collin Sadler and WR Tyler Brown also are dealing with injuries that could keep… https://t.co/iQHozy8jnX
— SportsTalk Media Network (@sportstalksc) November 2, 2023
Provided there’s no collapse-type-substance in the works the defense should be able to keep game pressure on Clemson’s offense all game long. In addition to the dudes noted above, the Tigers will be without RB#1A Will Shipley and preseason #1 WR Antonio Williams. Notre Dame’s front 7 is playing at such a high level that one imagines a very conservative gameplan to be in the works for Garrett Riley. If the defense tackles well and continues to limit big plays there will be opportunities to really grind Clemson down with unfavorable field position, down and distance, etc.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Clemson Defense
Mitchell Evans is out for the year! That’s a big loss. Evans had pretty much not come off the field at all for ND save for a DNP against Central Michigan. It’s a shame, because not only was Evans ND’s leading receiver on the year, he had an awesome showing as a blocker against Clemson in last year’s matchup. Sans Evans, I think we might see ND spread the line of scrimmage out more. They’ve clearly found something that works out of this trips wide set (h/t ISD’s Greg Flammang):
Gerad Parker had a good plan against Pitt’s single high man coverage. Both Tyree and Merriweather hit for big plays with the same route concept. Incredible pass by Hartman as well here. pic.twitter.com/QTouWVkIgR
— Greg Flammang (@greg2126) October 29, 2023
The Tyree post for a touchdown was one of the biggest plays in the game to answer USC’s score that cut the deficit to 11. Great call by Parker against this defense, great job by Hartman to throw Tyree flat, great catch and run by Tyree. pic.twitter.com/gBfgQubqXo
— Greg Flammang (@greg2126) October 15, 2023
Hand up, had the wrong team. Every time Notre Dame went trips to the field against LOUISVILLE, they went man across with a single safety. Faison and Tyree cook their defenders. Smoke show from them. Notre Dame needed to do more with this matchup. pic.twitter.com/yWSDgDFK8d
— Greg Flammang (@greg2126) October 9, 2023
I think this holds the key for the Irish in a post-Evans world. Holden Staes is a really nice player, but not the same caliber of in-line force as #88. Seeing Parker and Hartman figure out how to set their explosive guys up for success from the interior spots in the trips, though, I think you could see a lot of 2 high coverage checks against trips to the field. 2 high looks play very much into what Staes does do exceedingly well in the run game: blocking on the move.
If — IF — ND can scare Clemson into keeping that extra safety back against trips, we will have good opportunities to run the ball. Lead Staes (or Devyn Ford) through the hole and there will be big play potential whenever the OL hits their blocks well.
The downfall here will come if Clemson happily locks down our WRs man to man. Without any way to generate explosive plays and/or clear out the box a little bit, we will be counting on a “hair on fire” performance a la what we saw in last season’s Clemson game. We know Freeman can get these guys wired to show up like that — in a big game. What we are going to see on Saturday is whether he can find a way to a keep it comfortable against a scuffling but dangerous foe, or if we end up in yet another terrible struggle for points while we hope the defense can hold the line.
Which Zelda game is the header photo from? Must be one of the weird CDI ones.
Pretty sure its “David the Gnome” fan-fic
Ai generated “Leprechaun Set to Battle Tiger”
The legend of Zelda: old man link fights the zoo
So this is the preview? but no pick?
This game has me pretty nervous, feels like clemson will have one game where they outperform their play, catch a few breaks and get a big win (one they should’ve had vs florida state). This game kind of make or beaks the year. 10-2 would be definitely progress, 9-3 would not.
I’m going to new orleans for a guys weekend and i’m flying out saturday morning. figured I wouldn’t have to worry about an early nd clemson game and what do o get? 9am west coast kick. hoping I can stream it on the plan (or maybe not)
Didn’t have a great feel on a pick. I think ND will win but seems like turnovers will be key and don’t want to jinx anything
Where’s the pick!!?
Cooper Flanagan breakout game. Get an early lead please. Patience Sam, don’t force things.
So Freeman has already played a harder schedule than the Kelly era teams?
Notre Dame’s defense should dominate Clemson all day long with their dumpster fire O-line. The big question, is which O-line shows up for ND. We should be able to control the defense and wear them out with time of possession. A fast start would be nice to take the crowd out of the game, however I don’t see that happening against the men on the Tigers D. Clemson needs a win to salvage their season, I don’t think the get it here. Tied at 10 going into half, ND gets 2 TD’s in the 3rd, and another in the 4th, limiting Clemson to a FG.
31-13 ND.
Clemson with a bettered o-line and no Shipley gets about the same success offensively as Pitt last week. Doubt we put up even half the points of last week, but will be enough to beat single digits. Two sad FGs late by Dabo as we just wait for the clock to run out in the 4th.
31-6 for the good guys (I know 31 > 58/2, don’t worry about it)
I think intangibles are gonna be a pretty big factor in this one. Clemson has the feeling of a program that’s teetering on the edge of a cliff — Dabo spent the week arguing with fans, injuries are piling up, bowl eligibility is a real question now, etc. If ND gets off to a fast start, I think Clemson may just pack it in.
This is the kind of offense that ND’s defense feasts on. The Vegas line makes me nervous, but I’m gonna go 31-10 Irish.
Other than the “coach spent the week arguing with fans” that sounds a lot like us last year going into the Clemson game.
This one makes me more nervous than it would for a bunch of reasons. Teetering on the edge could be what they need to motivate them. They could easily shut our offense down. We have had tons of TOs/ST scores the past two weeks and they have been unlucky all season, which can both reverse in an instant.
I don’t see us winning a close game. I feel like if it’s close that means the bounces are going their way and we are doomed in classic ND fashion, just as things seem to be pointing up.
But it also seems like we are the better team, so I see either them winning a close game with all those things going their way, or us winning comfortably if those things don’t. Which probably all means that either we win by 1 or they run us out of town.
Well, last year, we were on a 2-game winning streak going into Clemson, including destroying ranked Syracuse on the road. Clemson is currently on a 2-game losing streak. So that’s not very similar.
I could see us winning a close game. Have you watched Clemson this year? Botching close games is kinda their thing. They did it against FSU, Miami, and NC State. ND winning a close game is exactly what Vegas expects.
I am worried about our offense getting shut down too. We need a smart, rational, and probably creative day from Parker.
Seems like Clemson’s offense keeps letting their defense down. I don’t see that changing this week especially with Clemson’s injuries.(Shipley/Oline)
Really hoping this is Clemson’s version of our 2016 season – an established coach seeing his stubbornness, poor staffing/coordinator choices, and stagnant elements of team culture causing a deep collapse for a season. And in this case, we can be their USC and beat ‘em handily.
But they do scare me; if they would’ve beat NC State in an absolute dog fight, perhaps with an OT or two, last week, I might feel better. With their backs against the wall and an opportunity to show that they’re still Clemson, I get worried.
Can’t wait to read @ericmurtaugh’s thoughts on the all whites today.
🙂