PROLOGUE

Here are some interesting stats . . .

BOB DAVIE – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND

15-7 Record; +111 point differential. 3-4 vs. Ranked Opponents

TY WILLINGHAM – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND

12-10 Record; -42 point differential. 5-6 vs. Ranked Opponents

CHARLIE WEIS – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND

18-4 Record; +254 point differential. 4-3 vs. Ranked Opponents

BRIAN KELLY – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND

15-7 Record; +182 point differential. 2-1 vs. Ranked Opponents

BRIAN KELLY – FINAL 22 GAMES AT ND

19-3 Record; +303 point differential. 3-3 vs. Ranked Opponents

MARCUS FREEMAN – 1ST 22 GAMES AT ND (excl. 2021 Fiesta Bowl)

16-6 Record; +321 point differential. 6-4 vs. Ranked Opponents

 

It’s interesting – we’re two or three plays against Marshall/Stanford/Ohio State from being right square in the most unambiguously impressive stretch of games for ND football since Holtz.

Not that point differential is everything; you could also look at something like Yards per Play (+2.5 on the year, basically a yard better than anything else in the CFBStats Era), or EPA (h/t Parker Fleming):

There’s an abundance of evidence that Marcus Freeman has stepped things up for Notre Dame in a big way. But things have felt much more volatile. Why? Because we have seen some randomly terrible performances by Freeman coached squads, especially against mediocre teams.

Coming into the season, consensus expectations were for Saturday’s tilt with Clemson to sit as one of ND’s “Big Three” games on the year.  If Clemson were Top 10, we’d be nervous but not, perhaps, apprehensive; being at a point where we can feel confident that ND under Freeman is going to show up in big games. Instead we are going to take on a 4-4 ACC squad in an early window game, and it’s terrifying!

 

LOOKING AT THE MATCHUP

Clemson Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense


Provided there’s no collapse-type-substance in the works the defense should be able to keep game pressure on Clemson’s offense all game long. In addition to the dudes noted above, the Tigers will be without RB#1A Will Shipley and preseason #1 WR Antonio Williams. Notre Dame’s front 7 is playing at such a high level that one imagines a very conservative gameplan to be in the works for Garrett Riley. If the defense tackles well and continues to limit big plays there will be opportunities to really grind Clemson down with unfavorable field position, down and distance, etc.

 

Notre Dame Offense vs. Clemson Defense

Mitchell Evans is out for the year! That’s a big loss. Evans had pretty much not come off the field at all for ND save for a DNP against Central Michigan. It’s a shame, because not only was Evans ND’s leading receiver on the year, he had an awesome showing as a blocker against Clemson in last year’s matchup.  Sans Evans, I think we might see ND spread the line of scrimmage out more. They’ve clearly found something that works out of this trips wide set (h/t ISD’s Greg Flammang):

 

I think this holds the key for the Irish in a post-Evans world. Holden Staes is a really nice player, but not the same caliber of in-line force as #88.  Seeing Parker and Hartman figure out how to set their explosive guys up for success from the interior spots in the trips, though, I think you could see a lot of 2 high coverage checks against trips to the field. 2 high looks play very much into what Staes does do exceedingly well in the run game: blocking on the move.

If — IF — ND can scare Clemson into keeping that extra safety back against trips, we will have good opportunities to run the ball. Lead Staes (or Devyn Ford) through the hole and there will be big play potential whenever the OL hits their blocks well.

The downfall here will come if Clemson happily locks down our WRs man to man. Without any way to generate explosive plays and/or clear out the box a little bit, we will be counting on a “hair on fire” performance a la what we saw in last season’s Clemson game. We know Freeman can get these guys wired to show up like that — in a big game. What we are going to see on Saturday is whether he can find a way to a keep it comfortable against a scuffling but dangerous foe, or if we end up in yet another terrible struggle for points while we hope the defense can hold the line.