So we’ve come to the end of the 2023 college football season and since we like to confuse everyone for the future we will now play the 2024 College Football National Championship with a new year attached to the name of the game. It was a long and twisty road for both Michigan and Washington to arrive at this destination, although in most respects the way in which they endured was completely different.
CFB 2024 National Championship
Washington (+4.5) vs. Michigan
NRG Stadium
Houston, Texas
Date: Monday, January 8, 2024
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Series: 8-5-0 Michigan
I didn’t want to write this preview at all, but like Judge Smails I felt it was owed to you all.
#1 We Messed Up
I wasn’t the only one pointing this out but I told you in the pre-season this was Notre Dame’s best shot at a National Championship since 1993 and I truly believed that. Sure, a lot of that was dependent on Sam Hartman rising the tide in South Bend which didn’t exactly happen. Or, I suppose having an awesome offensive coordinator to pair with him.
More so, we have been stuck for years in an endless cycle of dominant teams from the South, plus Ohio State, really making it difficult to breakthrough on the big stage. As we approached 2023, things were shaping up to maybe be different and here we are!
A top 15 finish will feel hollow for 2023.
Georgia couldn’t three-peat after losing to a very flawed Alabama team whose said flaws were on display last weekend in the semi-finals. Ohio State looks to be going through a complete existential crisis. Clemson fell off the national radar. And Notre Dame ended up losing to those 2 latter teams.
Yeah, we messed up. This was a massive missed opportunity and if it turns out Washington (who was 4-8 just 2 years ago and is 1 game away from eternal glory!) doesn’t win it’s not something that will ever be easy to let go.
#2 Blue Chip Ratio
In addition to some of the elite teams not quite being on their game, it wasn’t a 2nd tier program in the blue-chip ratio like Oregon, Oklahoma, or Florida that filled the vacuum. It was even less talented Michigan down in the 3rd tier, plus the Washington Huskies with a shocking 32.5% blue chip ratio running through a pretty challenging Pac-12 season while also winning a few games as an underdog.
Washington didn’t even make the graph.
We need to take a minute to appreciate some things about this Washington team, specifically.
*Kalen DeBoer is so hot right now. Back in 2009, he was finishing up a dominant 67-3 run at D-2 Sioux Falls with a trio of National Championships before embarking on an offensive coordinator career at the lower levels of FBS. This is only his 4th season as a head coach at the FBS level! All of a sudden, DeBoer has Washington poised for a title and has won 21 straight games while he’s yet to lose to a ranked team since coming to Seattle.
*The Michael Penix, Jr. story is pretty great. As fate would have it, DeBoer would OC at Indiana for 1 season only during Penix’ redshirt freshman season and that relationship was enough for the quarterback to transfer to Washington down the road. Penix was good enough to make Tom Allen appear competent with the Hoosiers. Allen has recently been fired and Penix is looking for the ultimate team trophy following a 2nd place finish in the Heisman.
*I’m left handed and naturally gravitate towards the talent of Penix and his sweet, sweet delivered deep passes downfield. Huskies are also, by far, my favorite dog. I also like purple, certainly more than the average male. Out of all the Pac-12 teams, Washington has always been right up there as a program I’ve liked from a distance. I’d cackle with endless joy if they won and then started wreaking havoc in the Big Ten.
#3 Not Watching
I’m not sad to say, I am not watching the game on Monday night. I can’t do it. The second Michigan’s punt returner fumbled late against Alabama and they escaped a soul-crushing catastrophic semi-final loss and possibly Harbaugh-era ending special teams gaffe (again!) I turned the game off. I knew the outcome.
If only forward progress didn’t exist…
I didn’t feel bad that Florida State was left out of the playoffs, but Alabama was supposed to win that game and not pee all over themselves (or whatever metaphor works best for poor snapping). Now, the injustice brigade will forever have a stronger historical case–even though watching Michigan beat Jordan Travis-less FSU by 14 to 20 points wouldn’t have been worth anyone’s time as we’ve debated endlessly.
Everything about this run by Michigan has been deeply sickening.
Their cheating scandal is now in the rearview mirror. Going from cheating, to getting caught, to looking a little less powerful after the allegations surface, to then winning a National Championship anyway just when the stars align perfectly in a very winnable playoff year is just uniquely Michigan-y and deplorable. All the while, Connor Stalions sits in the Rose Bowl general admission seats with a large grin on his face.
Not you too, Dan.
Some will say this is good that a Midwest program that is talented but not super talented is proving there’s a way to win it all with coaching and player development. Notre Dame can do it, too!
Or, maybe it’s time to visualize a Michigan National Championship–something that last happened the same year the frisbee was invented, Israel became a state, and the Marshall Plan became law–while Riley Leonard opens the season struggling at College Station. How’s that feel in the deep recesses of your Fighting Irish soul?
Oh, but this time Jim Harbaugh is going to leave for the NFL. And if not, he’s going to get pushed out of Ann Arbor in a cloud of controversy with a tarnished legacy. Or how about, the NCAA investigation will amount to a light slap on the wrist (maybe we can dial up another 3-game suspension!) while Michigan happily makes $370 million from championship gear sales and happily hands Harbaugh his reported 10-year $125 million contract extension?
We needed literally just 1 thing to go wrong for Michigan that led to one game being a loss and college football could’ve kicked this team to the dustbin of irrelevancy. That hasn’t happened, and instead they’re playing for the title, the media is writing all these inspirational tales about the Wolverines program (what a 180 we’ve done!), and this is the most disgusted I’ve ever been with college football.
Have a great weekend everyone!
Please make your next article a breakdown of how Brian Kelly would have almost certainly won the National Championship this year if he had stayed at ND.
Either way we’d watch a Tommy Rees offense struggle to move the ball through the air and make terrible decisions.
And Pete Sampson would insist he’s a genius and NFL teams are beating down ND’s doors to hire him.
Hey, gotta keep your sources happy.
Regarding Washington’s overall talent level by recruiting rankings… wow!
But gosh, a stud QB that can make all the throws, and multiple first round caliber WRs really levels the playing field, maybe a la clemson 2016 at least with the QB.
Honestly, Washington is a much better make-ND-fans-feel-good situation than Michigan. ND doesn’t have the luxury of (as far as we know) unprecedented cheating and a conference schedule that consists of only one other legitimate threat (no one wants to say it, but I will; Penn State sucked this year, was a complete fraud, and only won as many games as they did because the entire B1G other than the top 2 teams was even worse than they were). That’s more or less why Michigan is here.
But Washington is here with a brigade of underestimated recruits that were developed well and paired with a fantastic QB. Is it dumb luck that Michael Penix, who was really quite bad in his last year at IU, is one of the sport’s best now? Probably! But really, any QB sprouting to become a superstar is dumb luck. If ND can catch some of that dumb luck, they have more raw talent than Washington and a pretty well-regarded coaching staff with no clear weak links, certainly not in terms of player development.
Notre Dame can follow that blueprint!
Completely agree. The idea that Michigan is some sort of blueprint for ND is disgusting and inaccurate. The two programs have very little in common aside from being kinda geographically close.
As I’ve mentioned before, “ND and Michigan are alike” is something you only hear from Michigan people.
Besides doesn’t Michigan have a decent amount of transfers who may have been lower rated but perhaps were developed by other staffs and now play a lot for Michigan?
It’d be interesting to see how many NFL draft picks these teams really have and were they really so many 3 star developments from their own freshmen recruits or did it include a fair number of 3 stars transferring in after proving they were good?
You won’t like what Sampson has to say in his latest mailbag.
“Is this year’s Michigan team the blueprint for Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame? It seems like all the Michigan strengths sync with what Freeman wants. What lessons can Notre Dame draw from Michigan’s run?
Jonathan T.
Absolutely. Michigan is “offensive line and defensive line driven” as Freeman likes to describe Notre Dame. Michigan’s roster is old, which Notre Dame has been (and will be next year). Michigan has an NIL structure that has helped retain veteran talent, which Notre Dame does, too. Michigan has been aggressive (and smart) in the portal. So has Notre Dame. In terms of schedules, Notre Dame opened last season with Navy, Tennessee State, NC State and Central Michigan. Michigan opened with East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers. The Irish might play two teams that make next year’s preseason Top 25 and have three true road games.
Point being, Michigan and Notre Dame are more similar than they are different. etc … goes on to highlight differences in resumes of CMF and El Khaki
As much as this may pain Notre Dame fans, the model Harbaugh has built in Ann Arbor is one the Irish should follow. Notre Dame’s DNA is that of a team that’s going to beat you with line play and defense, not a passing game led by Michael Penix Jr. As much as the offense needed to evolve after the departure of offensive coordinator Gerad Parker, the philosophy of winning in the trenches makes sense. Michigan does that better than anyone. Ask Alabama.
Also, it’s worth remembering Michigan lost an average of 3.7 games during Harbaugh’s first six seasons there. It took time for him to get his footing, even at a place where he knew the terrain. Freeman is making those strides now.”
-don’t shoot the messenger-
I’ll say this…
It’s not like Notre Dame hasn’t been trying to do this for 10+ years already (line driven success) and the results have been extremely erratic as it is. Even the strides made under Freeman are really mixed.
As much as I hate to say it, Harbaugh has been one of the very few people to make this style work over the last 20 years. I don’t feel like that approach is easy, sustainable, or raises the ceiling very much. When weaker scheduling is part of the secret sauce I think that’s instructive.
I mean, I’d take 1 title for ND all day but it’s taken UM a ton of good fortune to get to this point. And they are a year from a not super talented team dropping a 50-spot on them in a playoff loss, too.
Agreed. We should wait and see how Michigan’s “line-driven success” holds up next year against a far harder schedule, without illegal scouting, and possibly without Harbaugh.
And during a season where all the normally top teams takes steps back at quarterback and have other notable holes.
Two other relevant factors that led to this year relating to COVID that are going away:
(1) relatively bad evals for the HS classes of 2021 and 2022;
(2) extra covid years for older players
#1 made the top tier classes less good than usual, and #2 probably most benefitted the good-but-not-elite programs who didn’t have a bunch of guys going pro but the program was good enough to keep the near-pros from leaving to go elsewhere. Like Michigan. Or ND. Like you said, this might have been our best chance to win a natty in the last 30 years or the next 30.
I’m still holding out hope Penix can pull this off…
Having good lines isn’t unique to Michigan. There’s nothing about Michigan that we need to emulate to start having a good OL and DL — we already have that.
Michigan did not leave their stadium until September 30. By that point, ND had already played in Ireland, at NC State, and at home against Ohio State.
Does Sampson address the unprecedented cheating that occurred this season and was caught red-handed? How would he feel if Freeman was suspended twice in one season due to two separate instances of cheating?
Keep in mind that Sampson was all but shoveling dirt on the Freeman era’s grave a few months ago and insisted that Tommy Rees would have saved this season. He doesn’t have a whole lot of credibility in my book.
Sampson just said that he has no idea what effect the Stallions of it all had on things and obviously that’s not an approach to replicate for ND. More or less shrugged it off – as you’d expect a reporter (as opposed to a fan) to do.
That’s too dismissive of him, IMO. While we probably can’t know the exact effect, the timeline of events suggests that cheating is what took Michigan from about where ND is today (9-3 but not really beating good opponents) to the doorstep of a national title.
I realize it’s an inconvenient fact for what he’s trying to argue but he can’t just shrug and ignore it.
I don’t know if any sports writer (with the exception of Ari Wasserman) has blown his credibility more than Sampson. It’s one thing to have sources, but readers shouldn’t be able to figure out who they are based on who keeps getting soft focus PR stories.
The Big Ten East wasn’t good this season, but the West was absolutely horrific. 75% of the conference should be relegated to the MAC instead of being allowed to dismember the PAC 12 to add decent programs.
Totally agree. The BIG was the home of the some of the worst QBs and offenses nationally last year – and their HCs have hit the Portal hard to try to rectify it. Including the four ex-PACs only four teams of their eighteen will start 2023 QBs in 2024 – Illinois, Purdue, Penn State, and Northwestern. Illinois and Purdue are stuck with some underperforming transfers in their first years in ’23. Cade McNamara returns to Iowa after being injured most of the year if you want to count them. Oregon’s second string QB, Ty Thompson, canceled his visit to Iowa to commit to Tulane.
Three of the ex-PACs’ QBs will move on to the NFL and will be high draft choices. Oregon with Dillon Gabriel and Washington with Will Rogers have reloaded. USC soured on Will Howard as Williams’ replacement so he went to Ohio State who drove Kyle McCord away. At USC, UNLV’s Jayden Maiava is visiting and would compete with Miller Moss. Whether it’s by design with the Portal in mind, UCLA had six QBs on scholarship last year with Dante Moore and Ethan Garbers alternating as starters. They will have six QBs on scholarship again this year with Garbers the probable starter if you want to add him to the returning starters.
When your passing game is fair to poor, you aren’t going to win many games, unless you are matched up against similar offenses. Penix and Washington may shred Michigan. He is not Allars, McCord or Milroe. I would have liked to see Michigan v Georgia in the semis.
I watched the FCS championship game on Sunday. The comment was made that South Dakota State could have won the BIG10 west this season.
I survived the Cubs winning the World Series, I can survive this too.
I think.
That said, Michigan isn’t out of the woods for sign-stealing just yet. My guess is that if Harbaugh retires or goes to the NFL, the NCAA will give Michigan very light punishment, claiming that they can’t reliably tell whether or how sign-stealing affected games. But if Harbaugh stays, the NCAA will suspend him again and vacate Michigan’s 2021-2023 seasons.
I think the NCAA does not want to punish Michigan football, but they do want Harbaugh out of the picture. He clearly thinks that rules don’t apply to him and lies to/obstructs the NCAA when they try to enforce those rules.
Oh man, the cubs winning is exponentially more palatable than *this*. Granted the cards just won in 06 and 2011, but being from central illinois there were multiple people I was happy for, friends and loved ones, despite how much I despise the cubs. I have never met a michigan fan I like. this would be awful. No fun offseason news will get this taste out of my mouth.
Yeah, it wasn’t that bad. Cubs fans were so overjoyed they forgot how to be annoying (at least for a while), and it was quickly overshadowed by, uh…events a few days later.
Now the Blackhawks’ run from 2009-2015, THAT was misery.
Please!
Maybe at least a game or two from the 2019 season, as well?
I got increasingly grumpy during the Rose Bowl because of Alabama’s offense. I think using a simplified, run heavy offense, and Bama wins by 10+. Yet again, the playcalling was too fancy, too pass heavy, and too late to adjust to the pass rush. It was like watching many recent underperforming ND teams.
Hey maybe Bill O’Brien was right about Jalen Milroe not really being a quarterback.
That’s interesting. I actually felt bama barely threw the ball during almost the whole game, were too run heavy because they didn’t trust Milroe. Their best play was milroe keeping it which can only work so much
Even running he didn’t look that great. Way too much lateral running instead of trying to take it upfield, and then of course that godawful fumble that probably lost them the game.
To me there were just too many examples of a deep drop back leading to a sack 12 yards behind the LOS. I felt like the running backs were gashing the D.
You were absolutely right and I was quite wrong that everyone would just get over the cheating stuff. As recently as a month ago I figured Harbaugh was going to face a show-cause and now it seems exceedingly unlikely as it seems like everyone is just kind of over it. They cheated! It’s weird. Perhaps helps to have a ton of Michigan grads in journalism, as Jason Gay in the WSJ writes about all the time.
Given that, I will revise my prior statements that got downvoted to Hades and say that actually Michigan winning is no bueno for ND. My bad! Go Huskies!
Oh my. Tons of pain here. I must acknowledge my debt to Eric for taking on this preview. Makes me face up to the realities which I confess I had been (shameful blush) glossing over — perhaps because scUM was never as much a visceral hatred for me being so much older, me it was always USCum, plus Sparty back in the day.
But that’s no excuse!! You are all very correct!! Andy, thanks for making me vomit up the kool aid that UM could be a good model for us. I join ND09hls12 in my regrets.
I devoutly hope that the phenom QB and his mindmeld with his receivers and his nice O Line will prevail explosively.
Using dates from this year, here’s a projection for timing for the CFP in 2024. Conference Championship games were December 1st. ND classes ended on December 7. I’ll assume other schools are the same. The first round of the CFP, which could include ND, starts on December 23rd with subsequent rounds weekly. Our players would have two weeks off before a first round game. A second place conference team after playing the championship game will not have the week off that ND has after the end of the season. Early signing period began this year on December 20th.
The Portal opened this year from December 4 through January 3, which would be after the second round of the CFP in 2024. How many players from teams in the first or second round of the CFP do you think will opt out or enter the Portal?
After Alabama’s loss in the semis, nine players entered the Portal four declared for the draft and two declared for the Senior Bowl.
Before Georgia’s bowl game, eighteen players entered the Portal and one entered after the bowl the day before the Portal closed.
It could be attractive to some players to finish finals, skip the CFP games, and enter the Portal to transfer for more NIL money elsewhere as well as those who will prepare for the NFL draft.
So we’d have an on-campus game two days before Christmas?
Not next year – games will be Dec. 20 and 21. Obviously the 12/20 game is a night game, and there will be a night game on the 21st… if we’re in it and like the 6 or 7 seed, I sincerely hope we are playing like Texas or Ole Miss in like 15 degree weather at night. Unless I’m there, in which case: day game on the 21st and 50 degrees pls.
Yup the schedule seems manageable regarding finals and holidays. Here’s a link for anyone who couldn’t find the info
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-12-03/how-12-team-college-football-playoff-will-work-teams-schedule-bids
For ND having that week off on championship weekend is an advantage. Players had three weeks from finals before the Sun Bowl this year but two next year if we qualify. Coaches would have less time on the road securing verbals before signing day. The Contact Period this year was December 1-16.
Is that week off potentially a recruiting advantage? Commits to ND would have that extra week to study as opposed to a school that finished second in their conference having played in the conference championship game, but not against a potential conference champion who has the bye week.
Or recruits could choose Stanford who has no chance at a CFP berth. We could schedule them or a G5 team for our last regular season game to rest our starters.
Logan Diggs entered the Portal.
They definitely need to re-work the early signing period (or just get rid of it as a failed experiment). The dates are terrible for everyone.
I’d say the same about the dates for the transfer portal. But that entire thing is broken.
I hate this timeline
After J.J. McCarthy leaves for the NFL, Michigan will have three QBs on scholarship. Two – Jayden Denegal #19 ’22; Alex Orji #50 ’22 – have minimal experience in meanless games. Their ’21 QB signee – Kendrick Bell – has been switched to WR. Their third string QB will be their ’24 signee, Jayden Davis #9. Their current backup, Jack Tuttle, is a transfer from IU who is out of eligibility. They don’t recruit QBs well and do not use the Portal much. You would think they would have hit the Portal for an experienced QB for ’24.
Washington signed Will Rogers for ’24 and will have four QBs on scholarships including Rogers. His backup will be William Haskell who transferred from San Diego State in ’21. The other two QBs on scholarship for the ’24 season include Austin Mack #8 ’23 and Demaricus Davis #17, ’24. Penix’s backup this season has been Dylan Morris #5, ’19 signee, who will transfer to James Madison after the NC. Morris threw for 2,458 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions for the Huskies in 2021
Washington seems to attract walkon QBs too with four currently on the roster. I imagine the DeBoer/Grubb offense next year will have periods where they can play Haskell against many BIG teams. Washington plays Michigan on October 5th.
Ratings are per 247.
Don’t know where to put this so here….Chris Burgess commits. Bit of a surprise or not really? Loading up on dline with 5 so far. Chicago public school kid. Glad ND is giving those kids an opportunity.
Also plug for Jamie U breakdown of Denbrock and running with the qb. Truly a really good read.
Where’s this Jamie U piece?
https://irishsportsdaily.com/s/22455/film-dont-lie-denbrock-and-the-qb-run-game
Thanks very much! This is indeed damn good!
I don’t think Burgess was a huge surprise. It always sounded like he was a top of the board DL for the staff and he has visited 6 times per On3. Not sure if we were considered the definite favorites, but it wasn’t totally out of the blue.
I thankfully wasn’t old enough to remember the Saints winning the super bowl but this feeling has to come close
I hope Washington thunderfucks them into oblivion and sends college football as we know it out in style
2025 Safety Ethan Long is Irish.
Can you retroactively take away a Joe Moore award?
Uggg. I hope Harbaugh fails miserably wit the.Bears and that Meatchicken hires the equivalent of Paul Rubens at HC. Muck Fishagen.
I said a few weeks ago that the day after ND’s bowl game was the worst day of the year. Oh how wrong I was.
There’s one person to blame for all of this, and it’s not you.
Tommy Rees?
Unless he also argued Michigan winning a championship is good for ND.
Did something happen last night? Washington lost and wasn’t crowned champions. It’s weird they didn’t crown one this season.
Georgia 3-peated, good for them. Heck of a run.
Congratulations to Michigan for their second championship in almost fifty years and their third in eighty years. It’s been a long and winding road. Their fans pregame certainly prayed they don’t let them down and came together. So many times it’s been a lonely hearts club now singing a ballad of John and J.J. But they now wonder if he’s leaving home to be a rich man. Did the Sun King win with a little help from his friends? To me he’ll always be the fool on the hill.