We have a couple certified bangers coming up but week 13 is largely the “play a FCS or super easy opponent before the rivalry regular season finale” portion of the season. Notre Dame is also on an active bye week, yes let’s call it that, as massive favorites over a depressed Syracuse team. It’s not the most exciting week ever, although we can’t complain about college football–it’ll be done before we know it.

2025 Betting Record

Against the Spread: 49-48
Straight Up: 64-33

I got off to a rough start last week but the evening time slot was friendlier. Against the spread, I crawled back to 5-5 on a busy weekend while going 6-4 straight up in last week’s picks.

Week 13 Games to Watch

All times are Eastern. Rankings are from the CFP Committee. 

Missouri [+7.5] at #8 Oklahoma
Saturday, November 22, 12:00 PM, ABC

Missouri’s passing game hasn’t done much of anything lately (15 combined completions over their last 2 games) and they might not need it that much if star running back Ahmad Hardy breaks free a few times. Hardy tore up the Sun Belt as a true freshman last year and leads the nation in rushing heading into the weekend while averaging nearly 7 yards per carry (300 damn yards last week helps the cause). You’d think Oklahoma’s defense is good enough to keep him in check, although a major let down and Noon start following their win over Alabama looms large.

Oklahoma 24
Missouri 21

Louisville [+2.5] at SMU
Saturday, November 22, 12:00 PM, ESPN2

If my math is correct, SMU can make the ACC Championship Game if they beat Louisville and Virginia loses to Virginia Tech next week in the regular season finale. Of course, SMU would also have to finish with a win at California next weekend, too. Would a 10-3 ACC champion SMU make the playoffs with losses to Baylor, TCU, and Wake Forest on their resume? Things could get really weird. Or not if Louisville sneaks this one out on the road.

SMU chaos agent in the ACC?

Louisville 34
SMU 30

#15 USC [+9.5] at #7 Oregon
Saturday, November 22, 3:30 PM, CBS

These teams, now in the Big Ten together, didn’t face each other last year. In fact, this is only the 2nd meeting in the last 5 years. It’s also only USC’s 2nd visit to Eugene over the last decade (although the last meeting in 2023 was at Oregon). This is playoff elimination for both teams, it seems. USC for sure, Oregon maybe less so but probable? At 10-2 (assuming a win at Washington to end the season) Oregon would be (likely) 4th in the Big Ten with a best win over Iowa or those Huskies. If the Trojans win it’s huge for Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. Unfortunately, USC traditionally plays poorly in Eugene and/or doesn’t win.

Oregon 38
USC 34

Kentucky [+9.5] at #14 Vanderbilt 
Saturday, November 22, 3:30 PM, ESPN

Things were looking rough for Kentucky earlier this season with a 2-5 start. But, 4 of those losses came to currently ranked teams and they’ve since won 3 in a row including victories over Auburn and Florida. You’d think Clark Lea will have his team focused but that finale next weekend at Tennessee may be distracting and I am positive Kentucky keeps this game dangerously close for the Commodores.

Vanderbilt 27
Kentucky 26

Pittsburgh [+2.5] at #16 Georgia Tech
Saturday, November 22, 7:00 PM, ESPN

Everyone gather around, the ACC has the national spotlight! It’s the league’s 1st place team hosting the 3rd place team. A win for the Yellow Jackets and they’re in the ACC Championship. Meanwhile, Pitt has this game plus hosting Miami next weekend. What I just saw from Pitt this past weekend did not fill me with confidence they’re ready to win against this ultimate scrappy Georgia Tech team down in Atlanta. I think we’re on track for Tech to win here and lose next weekend (Georgia) while Pitt loses here but beats a freezing Miami team in Pennsylvania next weekend.

Tech might have to drag King’s battered body to NYC.

Georgia Tech 24
Pittsburgh 20

#11 BYU [-2.5] at Cincinnati 
Saturday, November 22, 8:00 PM, Fox

Six teams (Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona State, and Cincinnati) are still alive for a Big 12 Championship Game appearance heading into this weekend. Everyone seems to think BYU is going to retreat out of the playoff conversation but they control their own destiny to the Big XII title game. However, if they were to lose they don’t hold favorable league championship game tie-breakers as things stand against Texas Tech and Utah, specifically. Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby was having a great year but has looked pretty bad over their current 2-game losing streak. He’s also banged up with an ankle injury. I think BYU lives for another day and knocks the Bearcats out of contention for good.

BYU 23
Cincinnati 16