At long last, the best college football week of the regular season has arrived!  If I had told you on September 14th that Notre Dame would be on the right side of the CFP bubble at this juncture, you would surely take that series of events.  But nothing is locked up yet!  The Irish need to take care of business (preferably with some style) on The Farm, and need to get enough favorable outcomes to cancel out any potential problems that might arise.

Before we dive in, let’s take a quick step back.  There are three teams Notre Dame realistically has no chance of passing in the rankings.  Those are #1 Ohio State, #2 Indiana, and #3 Texas A&M.  Notre Dame could theoretically pass any of the others currently ranked ahead of them.

Right now, the following teams slot ahead of the Irish, but could fall behind Notre Dame with a loss.  For reasons discussed below, we should root for all five outcomes listed here this week (the “Good List”):

  • #4 Georgia loses on Friday
  • #5 Texas Tech loses on Saturday
  • #6 Oregon loses on Saturday
  • #7 Mississippi loses on Friday
  • #8 Oklahoma loses on Saturday

Furthermore, there are four events that could see either a team pass Notre Dame or shrink the CFP bubble by one team.  Those events are (the “Bad List”):

  • #10 Alabama wins the SEC
  • #5 Texas Tech wins this week and loses in the Big 12 Championship Game
  • The CFP committee decides to vault #12 Miami ahead of #9 Notre Dame based on head-to-head
  • #15 Michigan beats #1 Ohio State on Saturday and either: (1) stays ahead of Notre Dame or (2) wins the Big Ten

The math for Notre Dame, frankly, is pretty simple.

Notre Dame makes the CFP if either zero or one of the events listed in The Bad List occurs, regardless of what happens on the Good List.  If at least two events on the Bad List happen, the Irish would need at least one event from the Good List.  Three Bad List Events would need two offsetting Good List events.  In other words, ND would be excluded from the CFP if the number of events on the Bad List exceeds the number on the Good List by at least two.

What about a home game?  Even simpler: Notre Dame would need more events from the Good List to happen than those on the Bad List.

Clear as mud?  Alrighty then, Rooting Interests time.

THURSDAY

Navy (+5.5) over Memphis, 7:30pm ET, ESPN

If Navy is still good, the Navy win is still good.  And pair this with either a North Texas or Tulane loss, and Navy would earn a berth in the American Championship next weekend.  This outcome would be most beneficial for avoiding the Miami Bad List possibility.

FRIDAY

Mississippi State (+6.5) over #7 Mississippi, Noon ET, ABC

Where is Lane Kiffin’s head right now?  Oxford?  Baton Rouge?  Gainesville?  At any rate, the Egg Bowl has a history of theatrics and dramatic games.  Any lack of concentration on Ole Miss’ part could jeopardize their playoff hopes among the clanging of cowbells.

Mississippi State is fighting for a bowl bid after getting run over by Missouri a week ago.  #Clanga has all of one SEC win: a three-point thriller in Fayetteville.  That was the only game in their last three during which the opponent failed to reach 300 yards on the ground.  Against Kewan Lacy and Trinidad (and Tobago) Chambliss, that’s a losing proposition.  In a normal game, Ole Miss with the points would feel like a lock.

#23 Georgia Tech (+13.5) over #4 Georgia, 3:30pm ET, ABC

Here’s the payoff for Georgia Tech losing to Pittsburgh: we can pull for Georgia Tech without fear that they’ll climb ahead of Notre Dame.  And knocking out Georgia could place the Irish ahead of the Dawgs.

That said, Georgia Tech’s defense will have to rise up after a poor first-half showing against the Panthers.  And as mentioned last week, this version of Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, a home away from home for the Dawgs.  Can the Yellowjackets defy the odds and win this rivalry for the first time since 2016?

#3 Texas A&M (-2.5) over #16 Texas, 7:30pm ET, ABC

This really only would help us by making our loss to Texas A&M continue to look entirely acceptable.  As with the Navy win, we’re talking about avoiding Miami jump Notre Dame here.  Surely not even Paul Finebaum and the SEC hype machine could will a 3-loss Texas into the playoff, right?

Texas A&M needs a win to secure an SEC title berth, and trying to avenge last year’s loss against the Longhorns should provide ample motivation for the Aggies.

SATURDAY

#1 Ohio State (-9.5) over #15 Michigan, Noon ET, FOX

Ohio State is as big a lock as locks get at this point.  Lose to Michigan, no problem!  They’d be in at 11-1, and they probably wouldn’t even have to endure a trip to Indianapolis (doing so would involve Purdue knocking off Indiana!).  Worse still, they’d stay comfortably ahead of Notre Dame.  But what if – God forbid – Michigan wins?  The Wolverines would only go to Indianapolis if Indiana or Oregon were to also lose (the latter would be a blessing for Notre Dame; the former, not so much).  So Michigan might be able to sit at home at 10-2 and slot ahead of Notre Dame by virtue of the best win in the country.

Let’s not venture down that path, ok?

#22 Pittsburgh (+6.5) over #12 Miami, Noon ET, ABC

Boy howdy is the Notre Dame versus Miami “debate” getting annoying.  It – along with a lingering Bad List possibility – could all end on Saturday with a Panthers win.  And this feels like two teams headed in opposite directions: Miami seemed to peak on a hot August night in Coral Gables, while Pitt has improved as the year has gone on, ND loss not withstanding.  The initial game time forecast has temperatures that won’t get out of the 30s.  Maybe the cold and the high-flying Pitt attack will undo the Hurricanes.

Even with a win, the Panthers would still need help to get to the ACC Championship Game in the form of a loss by SMU (-13.5 vs. Cal with an interim coach) or Virginia (-10.5 vs. Virginia Tech with an interim coach).  But with neither of those games kicking off prior to this one ending, the Panthers will not lack for motivation here.

Washington (+6.5) over #7 Oregon, 3:30pm ET, CBS

Thanks for nothing, USC.  The Trojans gave up 26 first downs and 42 points to the high-flying Ducks.  Now Dante Moore and company jet up to Seattle to take on the under-the-radar Huskies.

The Huskies’ defense is their calling card, most notably allowing only 24 points to Ohio State.  Their offense has been ok, but has abandoned them in some big spots (6 points against the Buckeyes, 7 points against Michigan, and 10 points in a puzzling loss to Wisconsin).  That won’t do it against Oregon.  If the Huskies can find some points, they’ve got a shot of ruining their former Pac-12 rival’s season.

LSU (+10.5) over #8 Oklahoma, 3:30pm ET, ABC

Speaking of bad offense and good defense: both of these teams.  LSU is playing out the stretch run without Brian Kelly or Garrett Nussmeier, and the loss of the latter has made a middling offense into a bad one, averaging only 15 points per game.  Against Brent Venables’ aggressive defense, that’s a huge problem.  If it’s any consolation, Oklahoma’s offense has its own concerns, having failed to gain 300 yards in either of its past two games.  Points will be at a premium in Norman.

Auburn (+6.5) over #10 Alabama, 7:30pm ET, ABC

A win in the Iron Bowl for Alabama would clinch a berth in the SEC Championship Game, while Auburn can ruin Alabama’s playoff hopes (and become bowl eligible!).  Alabama winning the SEC would surely vault them over Notre Dame in the CFP rankings.  Remove that scenario now, and championship week gets much more comfortable with the removal of a Bad List possibility.

BIG 12 NONSENSE

And finally, a note on the Big 12.  BYU holding serve last weekend at Cincinnati means both Texas Tech (-24.5, at WVU) and BYU (-17.5, vs UCF) are win-and-in for the Big 12 Championship Game in Dallas.  Arizona State has some scenarios that would send them there; again, each would involve at least one of TTU or BYU losing.  Finally, while Houston losing at home to TCU removed some Utah-B12CCG possibilities, one still remains, and must go EXACTLY as follows:

  • WVU beats TTU
  • BYU beats UCF
  • Utah (-12.5) beats Kansas
  • Arizona State (+1.5) beats Arizona

This scenario would result in a Holy War rematch between BYU and Utah.  In other words, Texas Tech and Utah cannot possibly meet in Dallas.  With that possibility out the window, we’d actually be okay with a Texas Tech loss this week!  And such a precarious loss would likely leave the Red Raiders on the outside looking in of the CFP, or at least behind Notre Dame.

What does this all mean for Notre Dame?  Simple: we can root for upsets with a clear conscience this week.  If Texas Tech wins on Saturday, we’d be pro-Red Raiders to win the Big 12 next week.

MAKE-A-WISH GAMES

  • West Virginia (+24.5) over #5 Texas Tech
  • UCF (+17.5) over #11 BYU