This whole conference football thing has been pretty easy! This Saturday afternoon the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame–in their lone season of conference football in school history–will compete for the Atlantic Coast Conference title. Meeting them on the other side of the field is a familiar modern foe, the Clemson Tigers. This will be the 4th meeting between the schools since 2015 and a rematch of this year’s regular season Irish win played just 42 days ago.
While it’s Notre Dame’s historic first conference championship game this is very familiar ground for Clemson. The Tigers come into the weekend playing in their 6th straight ACC title game and 8th overall appearance since the league switched to 2 divisions in 2005. They are also 6-time defending ACC Champions having won the last 3 league title games by a combined score of 142-30.
Since 2015, Clemson is 78-6 (.928) overall and 46-3 (.938) in ACC games but this will be the first time they face a team in the league championship that they’ve already lost to during the regular season.
Clemson (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame
ACC Championship Game
Bank of American Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Saturday, December 19, 2020
Time: 4:00 PM ET
TV: ABC
Needless to say, the return of Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence–who missed 2 games this year including the trip to South Bend–looms large over the rematch. The All-American quarterback and likely No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming 2021 NFL Draft is 33-1 over his college career with the lone loss in last year’s National Championship versus Louisiana State.
Can the Irish send Clemson packing and out of the playoffs for the first time since 2014?
Clemson’s Offense
Let’s start with Clemson’s offensive line, which throughout Swinney’s impressive run has never been overwhelmingly strong and typically the weakest part of this side of the ball. Case in point, since the 2009 NFL Draft after Swinney’s first season, Clemson has only had 4 offensive linemen drafted with Brandon Thomas (100th overall in 2014) being the highest selection.
Junior left tackle Jackson Carman is a former 5-star from just north of Cincinnati and was the only returning starter heading into this season. Redshirt junior left guard Matt Bockhorst is also from Cincinnati, played quite a bit last year, but only had 1 start in his career prior to 2020. Fifth-year senior center Cade Stewart also had one start last year but hadn’t played a ton.
True sophomore right guard Will Putnam was highly recruited and has been a new starter for 2020. Lastly, redshirt sophomore right tackle Jordan McFadden has been getting his feet wet this year and is curiously under-sized at 6’2″ and 300 pounds. Notre Dame won this matchup in a big way on the ground last month but wishes to do a little better in pass-rushing.
It was surprising to see running back Travis Etienne return for his senior season after being named ACC Player of the Year but individually speaking he may be regretting his decision. He’s averaging almost 2.5 yards per carry under his 2019 production and frankly I think he’s feeling the affects of such an enormous workload over his career.
Just in case you forgot about Lawrence.
Right now, Etienne is averaging a career-high 14.8 rushing attempts per game and had 26 out of the 27 touches from the Clemson running back position in the first game against Notre Dame. It’s expected that the Irish won’t shut him down like they did before but with Clemson’s offensive line I’m not sure we’ll see Etienne play super well, either.
Their receiver situation is interesting. There’s been some speculation that junior Justyn Ross (he of 17 touchdowns in 29 career games, including a pair against Notre Dame in the 2018 playoffs) could be active following spinal surgery but Swinney has pretty much shut those rumors down.
We’ll likely continue to see a heavy dose of the senior trio of Etienne (41 receptions), Amari Rodgers (61 receptions), and Cornell Powell (41 receptions) with some help from tight end Braden Galloway (22 receptions). Highly touted true sophomore Frank Ladson is probable with a foot injury but didn’t catch a pass against Notre Dame in November. Additionally, fellow true sophomore Joe Ngata (also highly touted) hasn’t played the last 2 games following abdomen surgery and could be out this weekend.
There will be a lot of talk about the return of Trevor Lawrence and how much better he can play than true freshman D.J. Uiagalelei but I wonder how Lawrence will fare compared to the 2018 playoff matchup now with a worse offensive line and no Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, or Hunter Renfrow.
Clemson’s Defense
This was always going to be a rebuilding year for the Clemson defense. Linebacker Isaiah Simmons went 8th overall in the NFL Draft while a trio of defensive backs (A.J. Terrell 16th, Tanner Muse 100th, and K’Von Wallace 127th) were all selected as well.
Additionally, linebacker Chad Smith and corner Denzel Johnson graduated, defensive end Justin Foster has missed the whole season, and defensive end Logan Rudolph quit football to pursue an acting career. So, effectively the Tigers came into 2020 having to replace 7 starters.
Full NBC broadcast of the win over Clemson.Â
Injuries haven’t helped, either. True sophomore defensive tackle Tyler Davis, redshirt sophomore linebacker Mike Jones, and 5th-year senior linebacker James Skalski all missed the Notre Dame game with various ailments. All 3 are ready to play this weekend (Skalski is battling a groin injury that could cause problems) although redshirt sophomore linebacker Jake Venables (son of DC Brent Venables) is 5th on the team in tackles and will miss this weekend after breaking his arm against Virginia Tech.
In some spots, the Tigers are really young but full of many blue-chips prospects including the following:
Freshman DT Bryan Bresee – The nation’s top recruit has started 8 games with 16 tackles, 4 TFL, and 3 sacks.
Freshman DE Myles Murphy – The nation’s top strong-side defensive end has started 5 games with 35 tackles, 9.5 TFL, and 3.5 sacks.
Freshman LB Trenton Simpson – The nation’s top outside linebacker has started 2 games with 24 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and 3 sacks.
Sophomore CB Sheridan Jones – The No. 130 overall player from 2019 has 8 starts with 15 tackles and 1 INT although he missed the Pitt game with injury and didn’t play much against Virginia Tech.
Sophomore CB Andrew Booth – The No. 2 corner from 2019 has started 4 games with 24 tackles and 2 INT.
Sophomore FS Joseph Charleston – The No. 149 overall player from 2019 has 4 starts with 34 tackles and 2 TFL.
In addition to the sophomore Davis mentioned above, Clemson also has true sophomore Lannden Zanders starting at strong safety with 17 tackles and 2.5 TFL although he was not highly recruited.
Prediction
I have 5 story lines coming into this weekend as I survey the landscape:
One, the injury situation swings heavily in Clemson’s favor as Lawrence is by far the best player on either team, plus Davis and Skalski are top 5-ish producers for the Tigers. Add in Notre Dame without center Jarrett Patterson with Correll/Lugg/Kraemer banged up and I wouldn’t begrudge anyone believing this gives Clemson the ultimate edge on Saturday.
Two, the revenge factor is big for the Tigers. They got punched in the mouth in South Bend and now need this rematch to make the playoffs. With 2 weeks to prepare and pick over Notre Dame’s gameplan from last month you have to think Clemson is going to be ultra-ready and motivated.
Three, for experience I’m going with Notre Dame. Clemson is really young at so many positions and many of their impact players were not taking part in the playoffs last year. This Irish group is a more veteran squad and I like that they gained the experience of beating Clemson earlier this year. That proved to them it can be done and that they are in the same discussion where a 10.5-point spread should be an appalling slap in the face to them.
Four, with intangibles I again favor Notre Dame. I like their leadership and for all the angst about Clark Lea leaving for Vanderbilt I really wonder if the defense is going to play so incredibly hard for him in this game. Mix in the rise of Ian Book and this feels like a Notre Dame team that is capable of punching an opponent hard, and more importantly, counter-punching when they run into some trouble.
Five, I saw one of the national college writers mention this earlier in the week that if this was soccer then Notre Dame and Clemson would essentially play for a draw on Saturday, thinking they both can get into the playoffs with that result. Of course, we can’t have ties anymore in college football and in reality Clemson needs to win to completely ensure a playoff bid. Notre Dame, on the other hand, really just needs to avoid an ugly beatdown and they should be okay to keep their National Championship hopes alive.
I know, we like to think that emotions, pressure, and focus will be equal for both sides but I’m not so sure Notre Dame is going to be quite as dialed in on Saturday.
Lastly, I find it a bit curious that this will be only the 4th ranked opponent that Trevor Lawrence has faced since the beginning of 2019 (it’ll be the 6th for Book). In those previous 3 games against ranked opponents, Lawrence has been 65 of 111 (58.5%) for 785 yards with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Those are pretty good numbers but hardly in the same stratosphere as we witnessed in the 2018 playoffs when Lawrence dominated Notre Dame and Alabama in consecutive games. I’m not saying Lawrence isn’t terrific but I think there is a good argument to be made that his 2018 weapons were just overwhelmingly helpful and his surrounding cast this weekend makes his life a little more difficult.
The biggest issue for me is that Lawrence has shown he can be devastating with his legs in big games over the last 2 years–something we didn’t see a ton of from him as a freshman–and something Uiagalelei didn’t bring to the table in the first 2020 matchup. In those previous 3 games against ranked teams, Lawrence has 190 rushing yards on 34 carries (5.5 yards per rush) with 3 touchdowns. Remove sacks and he’s rushed for a devastating 229 yards on just 28 carries in those 3 big games.
Anyone who isn’t in the bag for Clemson knows Notre Dame out-played the Tigers in the initial meeting this year with more total yards, a better yards per play, and a 208-34 edge in the rushing game. That latter figure feels amazing to look back upon but I have a hard time believing such a huge advantage is going to repeat itself on Saturday. If it doesn’t, this will put so much more pressure on Ian Book to raise his game even further and out-duel Trevor Lawrence.
Ian Book: 90.7 passing grade vs #1 Clemson in WK10
Highest the Tigers have allowed in game since 2014 pic.twitter.com/welGnNY1IK
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 17, 2020
For the past 2 weeks I’ve thought about a Notre Dame win. Right now, Ian Book and Trevor Lawrence are tied in the Heisman odds at +1400, and while Lawrence has been more consistently good this season, Book’s peak has arguably been higher and he’s trending positively at the right time. Still, an Alabama win would sink Kyle Trask’s Heisman chances (currently +250) while a Notre Dame win could move Book into 3rd or even 2nd for the voting.
That is just a lot to take in and as much as I hate to say it, I’m betting Trevor Lawrence doesn’t let his team lose as he becomes the one moving up into the top invites for the Heisman voting and clinches a spot in the playoffs for his team. I see a very good game this weekend and then the Crimson Tide on the horizon for January 1, 2021.
I’m oddly semi-confident about this one, which probably ensures we’ll lose by 50.
My thinking:
-Our defensive performance against UNC gives me a lot of hope. Generally speaking, UNC’s offense is a decent proxy for Clemson’s, and is in some respects better. If we can shut down UNC for three quarters, we can keep Clemson in check, at a minimum. Hit Lawrence hard and often when he runs.
-ND’s offense left a good number of points on the field last time, about two scores’ worth. If we can be even just a little more efficient on offense this time, that bodes well.
-For the first time I can remember, ND can play loose and confident against a top-5 team. We’ve basically punched our ticket to the playoff already, so it’s not a must-win. It’s not a hostile road environment, and it’s not a rivalry. All the pressure is on Clemson, not us.
I’ll say the exact opposite of your score — 34-28, Irish.
SP+ has this as a 7-point game. So yeah, I have no idea what Vegas and Clem’s fans are smoking thinking they’re going to win by more than 10
Great writeup. I find this line very weird too. Clemson is getting back important pieces on defense, but it has to be about Lawrence.
IIRC, they didn’t run DJ a lot because he was even a bit dinged from his first game the week before. To me, that is the huge difference. ND held DJ for 4-15 on third downs. That’s where Trevor Lawrence is going to improve Clemson.
I’m also kinda worried that Notre Dame only has 2 corners they can rely on (neither world beaters) and a safety in Crawford who gets beat regularly on double moves. The ND secondary is a ton of smoke and mirrors, Hamilton aside.
And, like the preview mentioned, ND didn’t get any sacks on that “weak” Clemson o-line until 2OT. (They’re pretty good pass blocking).
Add in Clemson looking to avenge the loss and, I dunno, I’m worried. The good thing is this ND team is tough and physical and might just beat Clemson up again. Book is performing so well he should be able to hold it close, can’t settle for so many field goals like last time.
34-24 Clemson, sad to say. Hope they prove my outlook wrong, but I think this is primed for Lawrence to make his case why he truly is the best player in college right now.
I don’t know about Ngata, but if it were I having an abominable surgery I’d sue.
Heh, I caught that during editing because I laughed at it. Must not have saved. I almost want to keep it.
I think we will shut down Etienne again. I think we have to. I’ll say 70 yds. with one big one of about 35. I think if we stop Etienne early you might see Clemson abandon the run and put the game on Lawrence’s shoulders. We’re not going to shut down Lawrence but if we can get a couple turnovers, say one pick and one fumble, that’ll work. We need to contain Lawrence I think you’ll see Lea dial up some pressure.
The Oline need to win the day again. Lugg will be at center and Kramer should be 100%. We need 200+ yards rushing. We need to be turnover free. Ian Book has developed more faith in his WRs than he had first game. I think we get one long TD pass, catching Clemson cheating up. The longer the game stays very close, the more I like ND’s chances of breaking Clemson’s will.
ND 34 Clemson 31
200 rushing yards is going to be tough to pull off. Here are those 200+ yard games in the Kelly era versus ranked teams:
2020 Clemson
2017 USC
2017 NC State
2016 Va Tech
2015 Stanford
2013 Oklahoma
2012 Oklahoma
I think every game had one really long run from an Irish back. We’ll definitely need a 60 or 70 yard gain from someone. Fingers crossed!
For sure it’ll be tough. If our Oline doesn’t win the day my prediction is doomed. That they did it in November gives me hope. It’ll be tougher without Patterson and with Clemson being healthier. There’s a lot riding on Josh Lugg having a good game. I’m more worried about him in pass protection than the run game.
BTW, excellent write up.
Was it Lugg who hit his rear end with a couple snaps? Luckily they rolled back to Book, but we really can’t be having that.
I think Etienne gets a little more on track with the Irish D having to pay more attention to Lawrence’s running ability. It’ll open things up a little more for Etienne.
Is Lugg starting at center then? I hadn’t heard for sure.
I would actually prefer Correll a bit I think but either way the guy that plays is really going to have to elevate his game.
Kyren and Hainsey have said Lugg is playing center tomorrow. Kelly kinda side-stepped the question today but did say if Williams said it then write it down, but Kelly was exceptionally sassy today, so who knows, he might have just been reacting to the information in the question to dismiss it.
I think the sense from the media is it might have been Correll if he was 100%, but he has the high ankle sprain suffered only 3 weeks ago and wasn’t/isn’t at full go.
OK, there are for sure positives and negatives for each guy so either way there were going to be some question marks.
Just surprised that it was already decided. I had thought I heard that the two guys would split reps until Thursday and then Friday it would be decided based on how each were feeling. Just didn’t expect to hear about it this soon.
From the sounds of it, Correll’s health decided it before it could even be a question. They’ve been prepping for this game for a while and he isn’t healthy.
RED-EYED DABO IS THE BEST DABO
I think the fact that we clearly outplayed Clemson last time, won the TO battle, had an absolutely incredible defensive TD (that wasn’t actually a TD) (and that somehow was almost identical to an Etienne fumble for BC TD the week before), and we still needed a comeback, and 2 OTs to win, is exactly why we won’t win this one.
That game reminded me of watching the Patriots for so many years. Clemson was the better team (like the Pats), but the lesser team dominated them most of the game, and then they had a chance to win at the end because they are better. I think the difference this time is Lawrence. He has the ability to do Brady type stuff.
That said. I’m just an eternal pessimist. And if sports has taught me anything, it’s that no one has any idea what’s going to happen (except for Vegas most of the time).
I get your point, but I just don’t see the lesser team/better team stuff. Clemson didn’t even have a lead until 3 minutes left in the game, and at that point their players were dropping like flies because ND was hitting them so hard.
Almost everything indicates these two teams are exactly equal to each other, even with Lawrence.
The fact Clemson had a lead with 3 minutes to go, after getting dominated, is my point.
Agreed…I think the first game showed that the two teams are pretty equal when you take Trevor Lawrence out of the equation. Put the best player in CFB in and that tips the scales.
Zut alors, this is the usual well-informed and judicious 18 Stripes dialogue, sparked as usual by an excellent analysis by Eric, however one key factor is undetermined. Does ND’s stand at the head of the ACC standings mean that we get to play in Blue? Given Eric’s mastery of uniform in all its aspects, I am surprised this has not come up. Based on BK’s track record in the big games lately, it will clearly weigh in our favor if we can choose our unis, n’est-ce pas?
I heard they are going to be wearing highlighter lime unis, ala the UND-Marquette MBB game from 2013
I hate bad nasty rumors!
I’m with you, I don’t think Clemson is the better team at all. I would argue ND is easily a slightly better team overall. Clemson is extremely top heavy with Lawrence and Skalski and outside of those two guys, they’re good but not great. ND has elite to very good at multiple positions on both offense and defense. The one big advantage I think Clem has is their receivers against our corners. Other than that, every unit is an ND win. ND OL vs Clem DL, ND DL vs Clem OL, ND LB vs Clem receivers/RB, special teams, coaching.
I don’t know if I agree or disagree with you, but I will point out:
I’m all over the place on this one.
Either ND loses by 25+ or wins by 10, I don’t see anything else happening.
Yea I think this is evidence for a slight disagreement with juicebox.
On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine Book will play as well as he did last time (maybe not fumbling at the goal line will make it about equal if he’s a notch below what he did last time) and that would be enough for us to lose I think.
Nahhh
Show me a Pats team that got outrushed 240-38. Nd dominated the line of scrimmage and was several red zone flubs away from breaking this thing open.
Line of scrimmage will be closer this time around with injuries tilting in their favor and Lawrence’s legs. Butttt I think McKinley and crew are more confident and in sync so that narrows the gap a bit at skill position. Should be a great game and Clemson should be favored by 4.5. Go Irish
Book has already outdueled the “top QB” from Lawrence’s HS class, Phil J, for the ND starting job, so I see no reason why he can’t outduel this guy
This is all irrelevant since there are a lot of equivocations going on in this statement. Beating a guy for a job is different than beating another team (so “outduel” means two different things here). And the top QB from one class does not equal the top QB from another class so just because he could beat one guy doesn’t mean he could beat another.
And of course no one is saying we can’t win or that Book couldn’t play better than Lawrence.
I think you got whooshed by the joke..
apparently.
Estime committed (totally expected at this point), but where did Khari Gee come from? We flipped him from LSU?
Flipping Ghee was smooth as butter. For my foodies