In early June, the Big 12 Conference announced it will play a conference title game again starting in the 2017 season. This move had been suspected ever since the NCAA voted in early 2015 to allow leagues with under 12 teams to stage league championship games.
The move wasn’t surprising given what happened the first two years of the College Football Playoff. In both years, the Big 12’s champion was leapfrogged in the final committee rankings by a team that won a conference championship game. In 2014, that jump – by Ohio State over ‘co-champions’ Baylor and TCU – cost the league a playoff spot. If Stanford hadn’t mysteriously lost to Northwestern in its 2015 opener, the league would almost certainly be 0-for-2 right now in playoff bids. In the Big 12’s view, their lack of a title game was hurting them in the playoff hunt, and it was hard to argue with them.
A side effect of the move, from a Notre Dame perspective, is that beginning next year the Irish will be the only power team without the ability to play 13 games. Each Power 5 conference will have a title game. (Actually, beginning in 2018, every conference, period, will have a title game as the Sun Belt will add one that season.)
It raises the question for the Irish: How important is their football independence? Is it important enough to have 11-1 almost certainly not be good enough to reach the playoff?
(Let me be clear before I continue: I cherish Notre Dame’s independent status in football. I think it’s vital to the school’s identity. I don’t want it to ever change. Now, moving on…)
We saw an example of the Irish being hurt by not playing a 13th game just last year. ND headed into the Stanford game with a 10-1 record. Their only loss had been by two to #1 Clemson, on the road and — say it with me — in a monsoon. And yet, the Irish were ranked behind Oklahoma, also with one loss, in the committee rankings. The same day ND played the Cardinal at Palo Alto, the Sooners downed a solid if unspectacular Oklahoma State team, also on the road. Whatever your opinion of the two teams’ merits at that point, it seems very unlikely the Irish would have gotten into the playoff at 11-1 if they had managed to beat Stanford.
The only data point the two teams had in common at season’s end was Texas, a team ND slaughtered in the opener but Oklahoma inexplicably lost to in Dallas. But the Sooners had, by some metrics, a better (and back-loaded) schedule, and they had a Big 12 title. With conference championships a stated metric for the committee’s evaluation, that was enough to make the ND/Oklahoma debate no debate at all if in fact it had come up at the end.
It’s hard for us ND fans to look at that situation and not imagine it playing out, over and over again, if the Irish ever do end up finishing 11-1 on the dot. A 12-0 ND making the playoff is a given. There would be no way to keep them out. But 11-1 opens the door for other factors. There are those in the fan base that doubt an 11-1 Irish team would ever be allowed into the party, given that it was created and is run by the same conferences ND has elected not to join. A simple ‘follow the money’ analysis has the Irish at a disadvantage.
With the Big 12 championship back in play in 2017, this disadvantage becomes much closer to reality than perception. All five power conferences’ teams now have a bonus opportunity to gain a quality win. Three of the five leagues play nine conference games, and the two that don’t (ACC and SEC) mandate a Power 5 non-league opponent (or Notre Dame or BYU). Factor in the title game, and this essentially ensures that any Power 5 champion will face at least 10 Power 5 foes. ND plays nine this year and usually plays nine (though they have played 10 before, most recently in 2014). You can expect that nugget to be repeated, and repeated, and repeated some more if a one-loss ND is up against another one-loss team for a playoff spot.
ND’s football leadership doesn’t betray any concern about this. Athletic director Jack Swarbrick is on record that he doesn’t feel ND’s lack of a 13th game will hurt them. Coach Brian Kelly has pointed out — repeatedly — that most of the teams to whom ND’s resume would be compared play an FCS game, meaning they only play 12 ‘real’ opponents even including a conference championship game. It’s indisputably the right thing to say. But the committee to this point has shown little regard for top-to-bottom strength of schedule, focusing almost exclusively on ranked wins. How much better ND’s worst opponent is than another school’s FCS foe doesn’t appear to carry much weight.
Also, just scheduling 13 games for the sake of doing it, even if it were allowed (which it isn’t, unless you play at Hawaii), wouldn’t help ND much. Bill Hancock, director of the playoff, has repeatedly said the 13th game by itself isn’t as important as providing another chance to face a quality opponent. So while ND could theoretically seek some sort of waiver to play some undetermined team on conference championship weekend, it wouldn’t change the crux of the Irish’s issue here.
Of course, even if the Irish were for some reason going to surrender their football independence, there are a host of reasons why it would be difficult if not impossible. Their NBC contract, a presumed casualty of any conference move, runs through 2025. ND has many games scheduled in that time that would have to be canceled if they elected not to be independent. And it would be nearly impossible to reconcile an ACC schedule with the Irish’s desire to maintain their rivalries with USC, Navy and Stanford.
Apart from the concrete issues of this hypothetical, there’s the clear reality that ND’s independence in football is a definite competitive advantage. Perhaps better said, ND not being independent would be a competitive DISadvantage. By not being constrained to any particular region of the country, and playing a national schedule, ND can attract talent from all over the U.S., which it needs to do to compete at the level it aspires to.
Ultimately, I think ND’s independence is just too important to the school to surrender — even if it means losing out on a playoff bid or two because their 11-1 isn’t judged to be as impressive as another school’s 12-1.
That’s how I feel as well. But I’ll be paying close attention to how the school reacts if and when the day comes when the Irish are denied an invitation to the party at 11-1.
The Big 12 is an interesting case. If either Oklahoma or Texas were to leave, it would struggle to be considered a Power 5 conference still. There’s just not much else there, especially with Baylor’s fall. Add to that their first game in the playoffs was a 20 point loss, the conference is a little short on credibility. 11-1 ND would still be in consideration with a 12-1 Big 12 team for a playoff spot.
ND’s schedule also lends itself to giving them a leg up on at least one conference champion. Look at this year:
Big 12 – Texas
Pac 12 – USC, Stanford
ACC – 1/3 of the league (no FSU or Clemson hurts though)
Big 10 – Michigan State
Chances are pretty decent with all those teams, that one of them will end up being a conference champion. An 11-1 ND squad would most likely have a win over that team as well.
And then there is always the argument that an 11-1 ND team gets in over an 11-2 conference runner up, making the 13th game a disadvantage. This just never seems to pan out though *conspiracy*.
“the conference is a little short on credibility. 11-1 ND would still be in consideration with a 12-1 Big 12 team for a playoff spot.”
With a win over Stanford, this almost played out last year. As we might remember, going into the Stanford week the committee had a 10-1 Oklahoma jump up 4 spots to #3, and ND drop 2 spots down to #7.
Would an 11-1 ND team have gotten a boost for beating a top-10 Stanford team on the road? Perhaps, but it seemed like whomever was coming out of the Big 10 (ended up MSU) and Oklahoma were ahead of the Irish. Why? Well I think it builds off something you said:
“Chances are pretty decent with all those teams, that one of them will end up being a conference champion. An 11-1 ND squad would most likely have a win over that team as well. ”
The problem is when that 11-1 team loses to Clemson, who also is going to make the playoff. Some will just use that game as an argument for an elimination game.
Bottom line is, short of 12-0 I’m guessing it’s almost impossible for a non P5 team to make a 4 team playoff. They’ll be in the conversation and could conceivably have a chance if situations shake out certain ways (i.e. one or two P5 champs being a 2 loss team, or slumping late), but it’s hard to see the numbers working out, until some controversy happens and then they naturally expand to an 8-team playoff.
Another key point on the 13th game, which we can’t have anyway as Eric notes, is that it’s a coin toss whether a 12-1 Notre Dame would have all that much traction vs. a one-loss conference champ either. Before the Big 12 announced the return of its title game, some Irish fans called for us to invite the Big 12 to schedule an extra game with its regular-season conference champ against us during championship weekend. Even assuming it was possible, which it’s not, why on earth would the Big 12 do that? There’s some upside for them, sure, but also enormous downside. It never made any sense.
Anyway, I’m not sure being in a conference improves our fortunes all that much. Based just on history, in any given season there might be one or at most two undefeated Power 5 teams at playoff time. There would still be a necessarily subjective decision made between the remaining one-loss teams, which would be a coin flip at best for Notre Dame just as it is for anyone else. A 12-0 Irish team will always make the playoff, period. An 11-1 independent Notre Dame or 12-1 conference champ Notre Dame will always be in a beauty contest with other teams – and even though I’m not big on conspiracy theories, I wouldn’t expect the decades-long dislike of the Irish to suddenly turn into fraternal warmth because we finally joined a conference.
Another element here is that joining a conference makes you a slave to the ups and downs of the other teams in that conference. If you’re a Clemson team that’s gotten hot, but you’ve done so in a year when FSU, VaTech, and GaTech are having down years, the conference becomes more of an anchor around your neck than a boost into the playoffs. At least by being independent it allows ND a more sensitive means of putting together a competitive schedule in the long-term.
We’re up to 4 independents in FBS now none of whom are busy during championship week. If we really wanted to play that week we could probably get them all to agree that the top two committee ranked independents will play an independent championship game that weekend. Selling tickets would be easy and I bet we could find someone at NBC who would put it on national TV every year.
On the flip side, no matter how we get a thirteenth game on the schedule I just don’t think it matters the vast majority of years. ND needs to go undefeated to make the 4 team playoff. If you want a system where very good one loss teams get a chance at playing for the title then very simply you need to expand the playoffs.
It seems like the only way that would matter is if one of those teams were ranked. A win against Army wouldn’t help our case much especially if Alabama is playing a ranked Georgia or Oregon a ranked UCLA.
Exactly. You have a four-team playoff for a structure that includes five major conferences – it’s guaranteed to be a headache every year. The expansion to 8 seems so easy it’s stupid, honestly – five conference champs and three at-large, with the quarterfinal games to be played at the higher seed’s home stadium. A non-power-5 team ranked in the top 12 automatically gets a bid, just to avoid an anti-trust lawsuit. An independent team in the top 8 automatically gets a bid. Any remaining slots are filled at the committee’s discretion.
Boom. Done.
Seems too simple and sensical to be adopted, but that makes a lot of sense.
Big picture, I wonder if some team that fancies themselves highly and has their own network might think about breaking away from a conference and going independent. Say, Texas. Not sure if that’s feasible to ever actually happen, but it’s fun to think about with the ever-shifting dynamics between schools and conferences and the fluctuating power shifts.
It’s an interesting question. I think the Big 12 has successfully staved off a Texas defection for at least the immediate future – Texas is clearly better off staying in the Big 12 right now, I think, especially since they get to stay in the conference and have their own TV network.
Sounds like we need to allow for a fluctuating number of playoff teams.
Any 1 loss Power 5 team with a win over a non-conference Power 5 team is guaranteed a spot. Any team that does not meet this criteria (mostly for non Power 5 teams) can still gain entry by finishing in the top 4 of the playoff rankings.
That would have been 6 teams last year (Iowa and Ohio State being the additional teams)
In 2014, adding Baylor and TCU would have made that 6 as well.
Maybe 6 is actually the ideal number…Good reward for #1 and #2 with a 1st round bye.
In a perfect world, we could let the games fluctuate each year, only allowing in those who had legitimate claim to being the best. Some years, like 2011, we’d declare the one undefeated Power 5 team (LSU that year) the NC before the bowls and call it a season (play the bowls as what they are–exhibitions) rather than give a rematch to a team already beaten out within the conference. Other years, 6 or 8 or whatever. Unfortunately, the logistics would be a nightmare–no way you could make the decision in December to have X amount of playoff games by the end of the month/beginning of January and have it all work out.
Had ND beaten Stanford to finish 11-1, ND would have been de facto Pac-12 champ (having beaten it’s champion the week before the P12 championship game). I doubt the committee would have given us credit but it would have at least had to take the win over a conf champ into account. I would like to think that plus the “common opponent” transitive “win” over Oklahoma would have nudged us in, but who knows. I come down on the side of independence is more important than an easy path to the playoffs, and once we hit 8 this won’t be a problem. No 9th ranked team has a legit argument for being included in the discussion for #1. Overall just wait it out and we’ll be fine.
I proposed this a long time ago — The Zibby Championship Series, ZCS! It’s even got a nice ring to it…
What if we had all of the independents play each other throughout the season? Then at the end, we take the top two teams and have them play each other, to determine the best independent team? That sounds like a good solution.
(that was supposed to be in sarcasm font)
Something to consider about the potential abandonment of independence: that would be a very hard bell to unring. The decision to join a conference could turn out to be a permanent one. The current playoffs arrangement, however, is very much not permanent. The 4-team playoff is a creation of the same folks who insisted there would never be a playoff, right up until there was a playoff. Why make a near-permanent program-altering decision to chase a spot in a playoff bid that could easily change in the not-too-distant future?
Interesting points… I think we could potentially change again down the road. After all, BYU did it – from independent, to conference affiliate, to independent – and they’re still considered a Power 5 program. Sure, they’re on a very different scale compared to us, but the principle holds.
That said, I mostly agree with you – while I think it would be reversible, it wouldn’t be without some permanent damage to the program for sure. I would expect all the indignation about “you belong in a conference” to get even louder, for one. I think it may eventually be inevitable, but I think you’re right in that we should hold off on this until it’s unequivocally impossible to have a seat at the table without joining a conference.
Do people really consider BYU to be a power 5 program? Even this article says that ND is the only Power 5 team without the ability to play 13 games (implying BYU is not a power 5 team).
Well, I don’t think “people” as in the general public does, but several of the Power 5 conferences (ACC and SEC, I think) count a win against BYU as a “power 5” win for their scheduling one Power 5 OOC game requirement.
Well… Do you think they’re at least the equal of Indiana? Purdue? Vandy? Wake Forest? Iowa State? As KG notes, a win against BYU is considered a “Power 5” win, and I think fairly so; I think they would be a middle-of-the-road team in any of the Power 5 conferences. They tried to get into the Pac 12 in the last round of expansion, but Stanford and Cal effectively killed their chances (and Baylor’s) because they don’t want a religiously-affiliated school in the conference. I think they would be credible members there or anywhere else. They have a halfway decent history as a program, certainly stronger than a number of current Power 5 teams.
Exactly. BYU might not be *great* but they’re definitely a solid team that is going to a bowl game. Basically same level as a Va Tech, Penn State, Arizona, etc. Miles better than then Purdue/Kansas/Wake Forest teams that technically count as Power 5.
I imagine Utah wouldn’t be too happy to have BYU join them in the Pac12 either.
So do you consider Navy Power 5? They’re better than all those teams every year too.
They’re not?
More to the point, the Power 5 conferences do not consider Navy Power 5, particularly as they are in a conference that is not Power 5. What you and I think about who is better, Navy or BYU, is immaterial. Multiple conferences consider BYU (and ND) as Power 5 equivalents for their scheduling requirements. Those conferences would not consider Navy as Power 5.
Huh, apparently the Big 10 also says Army is a Power 5 team. That’s dumb.
Also folks, unrelated, we’re trying out a comment-voting option – note the new thumbs-up/thumbs-down buttons on each comment. Let us know what you think!
Join the Pac-12. Maintain our rivalries and have 13 games :laughing:
I wish the FCS only count for losses. So frustrating when ranked wins count more when all the ranked teams are guilty of padding stats on directinal teams! Serenity now…
How does one do emojis? And edit button is a casualty as well?
I don’t know if there’s an easy answer for emojis, other than to acquaint yourself with the text equivalents. 😀
There are some ways to allow comment editing, we just have to work out the best way to do it. Not to get too technical, but with WordPress you add functionality by adding plugins; what we’re trying to do is find one comments plugin that does everything we want to do, so we don’t have to bolt this one onto that one onto that one. We’ll figure out eventually, just bear with us for a while.
Whoa! Text equivalent converted to emoji. Serendipity…
Hah! SBnation has trained me with their nonsense for a while now, you know… 🤓😏
Haha, yeah… Unfortunately SBN’s platform is proprietary, so it’s not like looking at another WordPress or Drupal blog or something and reverse engineering/copying it. We all agree that they pretty much nailed it from a user experience standpoint, though, and we’ll continue to inch closer to similar functionality where we can.
I appreciate your hard work. I know nothing about such things but already can see a difference. Now let us see if my gif keyboard will work here:
1. Love this new site!
2. Really good article.
3. Like Brendan already mentioned, the playoff is expected to move to 8. I think this is the biggest reason that ND doesn’t need to worry about the conf championships. An 11-1 ND team is making the top 8 every time.
4. One thing that no one is mentioning on here, is the fact that ND was playing some pretty lousy football going into that Stanford game. The 4 wins prior to Stanford:
Temple by 4
Pitt by 12
Wake by 21
BC by 3
The Irish only handled business like a playoff team in one of those games. That’s just not gonna cut it for the playoff committee. Nor should it.
If we would have won by an avg of 14+ through that stretch, and pulled out the W at the farm, we would have made the playoff. Style points matter.
I agree that style points probably played into our fall in the rankings. Unless you go 12-0, style points don’t matter (see: ND 2012, Iowa last year). I’m not sure beating those four teams by 20+ points and beating Stanford would have pushed us into the playoffs but it certainly wouldn’t have hurt us.
I mostly get frustrated with out inability to develop 2nd string players due to our lack of blowouts. We should have guys like Niles Morgan or Hunter Bivin playing extended minutes in the BC and Wake games but because we couldn’t put those teams away they sat on the bench. We’d probably be in better shape this season if guys like that had gained some much needed playing time.
/rant
Agree 100% with your rant.
Y’all are on fire with the timely posts: it came out yesterday (at least I think it is news) that ND is committed to the ACC through 2036 – i.e., that’s the only one we can join until then (presumably without paying a boatload of money).
Yeah, our ACC deal was extended, I believe, by 11 years – it ran through 2025 previously. That’s really good news for the ACC’s stability and by extension for ND.
As for the football conference thing, I’m sure ND is fine with that clause. If we were to have to join a football league, the ACC is the only choice in my opinion.
Agreed. I know football pays the bills, but the ACC is a better holistic fit by miles for all our other sports than the other Power 5 conferences. If we were absolutely forced to join a conference, the ACC makes the most sense.
And it looks like ACC/ESPN are set to announce an ACC Network later today. I read it will be online only through ESPN, but it may provide some hiccups down the road with the NBC agreement.
NBC gets ND home games, ESPN gets ACC Homegames. I thought there was already and ACC on ESPN network. Maybe not.
I believe ESPN carried most ACC games but there wasn’t a separate ACC Network, at least not operated by ESPN. This would be like the current SEC Network, I’m assuming.
NDForever is referring to the “ACC on ESPN” branding that Disney/ESPN threw on when any of their networks have ACC home games (they do the same thing with SEC games when they are on ESPN networks). As you mentioned, this will be a full-blown network, not just a branding of ESPN-broadcasted games.
It got re-upped and a bunch of $$ added, I believe. All the B12 posturing about moves is (apparently) a result of the amount of cash ESPN threw at us.