A game neither team can afford to lose if they want to repeat last season’s success, but a team one must win and effectively eliminate from the mystical magical imaginary CFP race. I’m guessing neither one of these teams thought this was the game stakes when it was first scheduled and even back in August.

Boise State at Notre Dame (-20.5)

Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame, IN
Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: NBC/Peacock

Despite theories of losing this game for those with YouTube TV (like myself), NBC will be carried by the streamer for the weekend in a short-term deal between the media conglomerates.

Vegas Corner

The line started somewhere around -16.5 when the line opened on Sunday. The line jumped up to 17.5 before settling at 20.5 for the Irish. The Over/Under has settled at 64.5, indicating that Vegas expects the Irish defensive effort in Fayetteville to continue into their follow up against the reigning Mountain West Champions.

Weather Report

The forecast looks like it will be a sunny 87 degrees, no chance of any precipitation. A very un-fall October afternoon for the boys on their return home after their big win in Fayetteville.

Series History

*First Meeting*

Much like last week, this Saturday’s game will be the first from the Mountain West school. Normally, when there is a first time meeting in South Bend, there is usually accommodations to “get used to” Notre Dame Stadium, but given the Broncos’ barnstorming history and wanting to play as high of a program out of conference, the players may not be as intimidated as other programs might be in a similar spot.

Fun Fact(s)

The most fun fact is their field at Albertsons Stadium is blue, bucking the trend of traditional college football fields. The sponsor of the field is Albertsons, a large grocer on the West Coast (and many subsidiaries across the country). The company is so large in the Boise area, they also sponsor the library on campus. Yes, the Albertsons Library.

Coaching Staff

The head coach is Spencer Danielson. Danielson is in his second full season as head coach of the Broncos. He took over as interim in 2023, winning his final three games to win the Mountain West. He was the former DC for the Broncos and has been in the program since his first season as a Graduate Assistant in 2017. He is looking for his 19th game in his young head coaching career. The most notable thing for Irish fans, is him letting the cat out of the bag this week on CJ Carr.

The man responsible for trying to stop Carr and the offense is Defensive Coordinator Erik Chinander. Chinander took over the role after Danielson rose to the Head Coaching position full time at the end of the 2023 season. He was brought into Boise as a Defensive Line coach and Defensive Run Coordinator. Obviously, with eyes on Carr this week with the coaching staff, he also has to remember that one of, if not the best backfield in the country will be next to Carr and need to be stopped for a successful day.

The Offensive Coordinator for the Broncos is Nate Potter. The Boise State Hall of Famer worked alongside veteran coach Dirk Koetter as co-OC until last season, taking over the role full time while Koetter stepped back into a analyst role. Potter was an offensive linemen during his time at Boise State and found success coaching Tight Ends at Montana State before going back to his alma mater in 2022.

Portal

The Broncos were fairly active in the portal to try and continue their momentum from 2024. The first thing was to try and find enough of production to replace a Heisman runner up. The coaching staff looked to Fresno State and Malik Sherrod to share the load. Another player they took in, that will be familiar to Irish fans, is CB Jaden Mickey. Mickey, while being cleared to travel with the team to South Bend, will probably not play on Saturday after a scary hit last week. He is still in concussion protocol. Another player on the defensive side that Boise looked to grab was edge rusher help. They found their player in Malaki Williams. The Idaho transfer is second currently on the team in sacks in the early part of the season. The most famous part of Boise’s 2024 portal movements was of course the departure of Malachi Nelson. The former USC prospect landed at UTEP where he has started two games for the Miners thus far in the 2025 season.

Top Players

QB Maddux Madsen

The RS Junior, in his second full season as the starter, has taken full control of the job and is trying to put his name on the historic Boise State record books. After fighting to win the job against Taylen Green and then Nelson, Madsen is having his best season so far with the Broncos. He is a little bit of a game manager for the Broncos, but his lack of mistakes has made for some great play. like his performance last week against App State. His career day included 321 yards and 4 TDs.

RB Dylan Riley

As I mentioned above, it is hard to replace Ashton Jeanty and his production. Much like Brad Pitt in Moneyball, the Broncos are not trying to replace him with one singular player, but to try and run the ball by committee to help Madsen and the offense. The breakout was Dylan Riley, who broke out in the Air Force game, currently leads the team in rushing yards and rushing TDs. However, the Irish defense will see Sire Gaines and Sherrod as well get a fair amount of carries.

LB Boen Phelps

Phelps had his best game of his young career last week against the Mountaineers. The RS Sophomore, in his second career start, was named Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week. He returned an interception for a TD. His PFF grade led all LBs with his 6 tackles and 1 QB hurry on top of his first career interception. I would look for Phelps, who is both listed as a Linebacker and Safety, to be covering either the RBs out of the backfield or Raridon on passing routes.

S Ty Benefield

The junior from California has led the Broncos in tackles for the past three games. He led the team in snaps on defense and tackles a season ago. He is the heart of the Boise defense and is the main leader and cause of the improvement of the secondary. He will be the last line of defense to try and bottle up big plays from the Irish offense.

Bad Matchup

Boise’s Improving Secondary

The biggest improvement in the Boise State team has been the secondary gelling together. In their blowout win at home against App State, the Boise secondary held the Mountaineers to 62 total passing yards and returned two interceptions back for TDs. The secondary hasn’t faced a team with as much WR talent since the Fiesta Bowl the previous year, so this will be their biggest test of the season, but it’s something to look out for as Carr comes off his best game of his young career.

Good Matchup

Notre Dame’s Rush Attack

The Broncos defense has seemingly struggled to keep from opponents gashing them on the ground. They let South Florida QB Byrum Brown score twice on the ground on scrambles, and let a middling Air Force team 4.9 yards a carry. Granted, the Falcons run an option style offense, but it is not hard to see Love and Price continue their hot starts against this Boise defense. If Denbrock can continue to give Price and Love plays to find space in the running game, it will help Carr and his arm find the passing lanes.

Special Teams

The Broncos don’t seem to have anyone as a game changer in the special teams. As mentioned, Sherrod has become more of a returner for Boise rather than the primary RB. The kicker, UCF transfer Colton Boomer, has a career long of 55 in 2023 (ironically against Boise State). He hasn’t attempted anything outside of forty yards this season, which may be due more to the offense not stalling out in the middle of the field.

Prediction

Ultimately, I think that the offense is finding its groove at the right time. It is past the toughest part of the schedule and still is looking to improve. The comments by Danielson about Carr being a first round pick already shows the hope and the ceiling of what this team could become if the defense continues to step up. Looking at the range of outcomes, I think that Notre Dame continues to roll on offense. One of the facts I almost put earlier in this preview is that Boise State hasn’t lost a game scoring more than 35 since 2011. I think that the Irish defense can handle the Boise offense, coming off of its most prolific game since Ashton Jeanty’s breakout game last August. I think Boise has the people to cover the Vegas spread, but not enough to pull it close late.

Notre Dame 42

Boise State 24