Bronco Mendenhall left BYU for Virginia after the 2015 season in a bit of a weird career move, has since left UVA under weirder circumstances, all while current Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake has flourished in his 7th season at his alma mater.
Sitake came out of the gate fairly strong at BYU going 9-4 in 2016 (with losses by a combined 8 points!) then weathered a very mediocre 3-year stretch going 18-21 through 2019. Since then, the Cougars have been on fire as an independent going 25-5 since the start of the 2020 season and are finishing up their last season before joining the Big XII as full-time members.
That record includes an impressive 5-1 run last year against Power 5 programs right after losing 2nd overall pick quarterback Zach Wilson to the New York J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. Thus far in 2022, BYU has beaten Baylor but lost decisively to ranked Oregon on the road back in week 3.
BYU (+3.5) vs Notre Dame
Allegiant Stadium
Paradise, Nevada
Date: Saturday, October 8, 2022
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: NBC/Peacock
Series: 6-2-0 Notre Dame
Notre Dame comes into the weekend on a 2-game winning streak while rebuilding itself following a difficult open to the season and hoping to continue the good run of success during Shamrock Series games. For the first time in history, the Fighting Irish will be playing in Vegas as the Raiders’ new Allegiant Stadium (opened in 2020) hosts the matchup against the Cougars.
BYU’s Offense
The Cougars current offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick played at BYU and moved back to the school from Utah as an offensive consultant in 2017, rose to quarterbacks coach in 2018, and assumed the OC role starting in 2021 when Jeff Grimes left for the same job at Baylor (it must’ve felt good to beat the Bears earlier this season). Roderick’s role in developing Zach Wilson and continuing BYU’s strength as an offensive orientated team has been a big part of the program’s success in recent years.
They are only replacing a couple starters from a year ago. Running back Tyler Allgeier (5th round pick to Atlanta after 2,899 career rushing yards) has been a big loss as California Golden Bear 5th-year transfer Christopher Brooks steps up into the main role and just surpassed 2,000 career rushing yards last week.
Don’t miss our Guide to Las Vegas Hotels for ND Fans!
Neil Pau’u (123 career receptions, Bills practice squad) was the only loss at receiver. However, 2021 leading receiver in junior Puka Nacua has suffered ankle and knee injuries with only 4 receptions in 2 games while last year’s second leading receiver and senior Gunner Romney suffered a lacerated kidney during fall camp and only played in his first game of the season last week (4 catches for 51 yards).
The Cougars offensive line brings back plenty of experience. Junior left tackle Blake Freeland (6-8, 305), junior left guard Clark Barrington (6-6, 305), and sophomore center Connor Pay (6-5, 312) all started last year and bring a lot of size. BYU had senior Joe Tukuafu (6-4, 300) with 9 starts last year but he was beaten out by junior Harrison LaChance (6-8, 310) at right guard while 2021 top 50 recruit Kingsley Suamataia (6-6, 325) has stepped into the starting right tackle roll after transferring from Oregon.
Without a doubt, quarterback Jaren Hall is the straw that stirs the drink of this offense. Originally a 2016 recruit (Ian Book’s class, for reference) who took a 2-year mission (like many BYU players he is married and also has a small child) he came back looking to play baseball and was a frustrated ‘athlete’ quarterback on the BYU roster during the Zach Wilson era.
Heading into 2021, Hall won the starting job and has been quietly very, very good for the Cougars with a modestly rising NFL stock. He heads into the weekend with an efficient passing game (4,441 passing yards, 66.3% accuracy, 33 TD, 6 INT for his career) and he can be a threat on the ground too with 514 career rushing yards.
This is a multiple spread BYU offense leaning a bit more to a pass-first option while using Hall’s legs in the running game. Notre Dame will need a big game from the pass-rush and for the linebackers to contain Hall on scrambles.
BYU’s Defense
Ilaisa Tuiaka was a successful up-and-coming position coach at Utah State, Utah, and Oregon State before taking the defensive coordinator position at BYU when Sitake became head coach. Notre Dame fans may remember the 2012-13 matchups against the Cougars in South Bend for their gritty, tough defense and somewhat plodding offense.
BYU’s program has been the opposite of that in recent years. Tuiaka has been under plenty of criticism for not holding up his end of the bargain when the offense has been playing at a much higher level as the program gets ready to enter the free wheelin’ Big 12 soon.
Tuiaka has frustrated fans for playing a very bend-but-do-not-break brand of defense that doesn’t send a ton of blitzes and really lacks the ability to create havoc plays. Think a very similar brand of defense to what Stanford has these days–BYU looks A LOT like that. Tuiaka’s base scheme is to use 3-down linemen and he’s fond of the Tite front with the nose tackle directly over the opposing center. They do appear to be mixing in more 4-man fronts and trying to be more aggressive in 2022, though.
BYU would’ve brought back every single top 15 tackler from a year ago except linebacker Chaz Ah You is not on the roster for 2022 and reportedly working his way back to the good graces of the program.
They even brought in Vanderbilt transfer cornerback Gabe Jeudy-Lally whose been playing a lot and saw his targeting call overturned by the NCAA from last week so he’ll be in the lineup during the 1st half against the Irish.
This is a program that loves them some position names. They have a Rover, Flash, Cinco, and Joker which is a super awesome way to let people know where they are on the field for game previews.
Being able to block the Cougars linebackers will be key. Sophomore Ben Bywater (6-3, 230), junior Max Tooley (6-2, 215), junior Payton Wilgar (6-3, 235), and junior Keenan Pili (6-3, 237) have combined for 112 tackles this season and highlight the BYU defense. This scheme has struggled containing the run and if Notre Dame out-leverages them enough it could be bad for the Cougars, especially because this linebacker corps only has a modest 6.5 tackles for loss.
Be prepared for BYU to drop 8 a lot in pass protection, too. Notre Dame might have to get Drew Pyne’s legs involved a little bit but if the running game is providing more 3rd & short opportunities it may not matter.
Prediction
This is a dangerous but far from complete BYU team, that’s the best way I can describe them. You could make the case that as the 16th ranked team in the country with a better record they should be favored on a neutral site against Notre Dame.
However, looking at things more closely this would appear to be a very bad matchup for the Cougars.
BYU FEI Ranking During the Sitake Era
| YEAR | OFF | DEF |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 66 | 31 |
| 2017 | 119 | 72 |
| 2018 | 68 | 63 |
| 2019 | 66 | 66 |
| 2020 | 2 | 9 |
| 2021 | 4 | 83 |
| 2022 | 17 | 56 |
During the Sitake era BYU has really struggled in bigger games where the opponent can mix in a physical run game that is combined with speed that threatens the edges of what I’d describe is a bit of a slower defense–again think modern-day Stanford. Of course, BYU would counter that Notre Dame doesn’t have a ton of speed on the edges, in which case I agree, but someone like Chris Tyree could do some damage if he gets the ball in the right spots.
I don’t think we’ll see a huge rushing performance from Notre Dame–the BYU front looks improved in this area and more 4-man fronts will likely help their cause. However, I expect there will be a lot of heavy sets and a gameplan that will see the Irish run the ball a ton. At times, it’ll look plodding but if BYU isn’t being very disruptive eventually Notre Dame will find success.
A gradient helmet has angered the Vegas gods.
Outside of some positional matchups it’s really hard to get a read on this game. A pair of religious schools from the independent ranks playing a night game in Las Vegas. It’s just, weird. Perhaps that is the beauty of the Shamrock Series.
Before the season began I thought this would be a very tough game for Notre Dame, trending towards a loss against an extremely veteran team with a good quarterback. Following the Marshall game I marked this down as a sure loss, plus I am certain there will be at least one terrible Drew Pyne game coming and it’ll likely happen when he’s less experienced. Yet, here we are with the Irish favored. I’ve now moved to feeling fully disappointed if Notre Dame doesn’t win.
Good preview. To me, it’s two teams trending in different directions, BYU just gave up 200+ yards rushing to Utah State, who aren’t exactly great. I watched that game last Thursday. Hall is a good QB and the offense is nice, as written. Would be nice to get some turnovers, but that might require more luck than anything (insert Vegas reference here).
But Notre Dame’s running is going up, BYU’s ability to stop the run is going down, which makes for a simple yet effective and obvious game plan. Chew up clock, control the game, limit possessions and get out of there in a hurry. ND 24, BYU 17
Also, I’m prepared to take a flaming for this, but #31 Tooley on their team in some ways reminds me of Kyle Hamilton. He’s a LB but is 6’2, 210 kinda built lanky the same as Hamilton and maybe it’s because he just wears the sleeves the same. But he closes in space very well like Kyle, had a pick 6 last game and also his attitude, he’s talkin’ his s— all the time like Kyle too. Clearly not a first round talent or anything, but watching him made me think of an off-brand version.
Tooley threw a shoe!
Also, neck roll too.
Who throws a shoe? Honestly?
To my eyes, BYU is basically UNC New Game+. I see little reason to depart from the gameplan of two weeks ago. We know what works and what doesn’t; let’s do the things that work. Hopefully we start doing that before the second quarter this time. The goal this week should be to score (either FG or TD) twice in the first quarter. Freeman’s recent presser comments give me hope that we’re focused on getting off to a better start this time around.
The bye week and trip to Vegas worry me as opportunities to lose focus and the sense of urgency we’ve had the last two games. It seems like Freeman – and this is not a criticism – needs to do the CEO/team management type stuff a couple times before he really figures it out, and this is his first bye week and Shamrock Series trip. Hopefully he learned some things from the Fiesta Bowl that can be applied to this game.
All in all, I agree that this looks like a bad matchup for BYU if ND has its head on straight. I’ll say 30-20 ND.
i really have a good feeling about this one man
the development of our run blocking and run game in general vs their front 7 should be very fun to watch
i am cautiously optimistic about our defense’s ability to contain Hall considering really we’ve done a good job against better (Stroud & Maye)
ND 34 BYU 20
I just think that BYU is a similar team to UNC and that is good news for us. However, I don’t think that the BYU offense is quite as dangerous so I wouldn’t be surprised to see us only give up many 24 points which should be easily low enough for our offense to be above.
The BYU defense has to be better than Carolina’s, right? I mean at least in terms of not having so many blown assignments. However, we should have scored almost 60 against Carolina and if we just eliminate a few errors our offense could hum against BYU and score say 38.
That’s my prediction: ND 38, BYU 24.
Presumably BYU won’t give our WRs 15 yards of cushion like UNC did, right?
I mean you never know when Matt Salerno is gonna hit you with the big play but
Mack Brown said, “I don’t know when Braden Lenzy’s breakout game is finally going to be, but I just know it ain’t gonna be against ME!”
ND 27 BYU 24 D Line continues its recent surge and forces a fumble or pick on a hit on the QB. DBs come up with another pick at some point on a nice play. Game comes down to a late great punt from ND pinning BYU too deep to march far enough for a game tying field goal. Leaves me sweating a Drew Pyne OT game, but we come out of it in regulation with the W. ND picks up 1 or 2 votes in next week’s AP poll. My optimism for the rest of the season surges.
We then follow it up with a disappointing 20-17 win over Standford, bringing my expectations back down to earth.
I thought I’ve seen elsewhere that BYU is really weak against the run which I would then expect that we would have a pretty huge rushing performance.
BYU has the 93rd ranked rush defense. They’re not good. For comparison, UNC is 112.
ND should have a big rushing day. If we don’t, we’re probably going to lose.
What would you define as huge?
I think the BYU defense is solid overall, if a little below average in spots. People are running a lot against them, but not necessarily putting up huge yardage or all that efficient. For example, they’re allowing 3.88 yards per rush.
They were much worse last year, so I think that’s coloring some of the perception. But more so, Utah State rushing for 204 yards last week…but it took them 49 carries.
We should get to 200 yards because we’ll stick with it. Much more than will depend on how explosive we can be. BYU has only given up 2 rushing plays of 20+ yards, though.
Not to oversimplify it, but 3.88 yards per rush times 3 downs = 11.64 yards, first down. #analysis
I don’t think we’ll rack up like 300 rushing yards, but this is really straightforward. Run the footbaw.
The linebackers are good, but BYU’s lines seem pretty rough. If Utah State is getting a push, that’s a problem. I’d expect that BYU sells out to stop the run and packs the box, so if the offense can keep building on the play action game Pyne could have a fun night.