This is probably the biggest regular season weekend for Cincinnati since the weekend of December 5th, 2009. The Bearcats came into the weekend at #5 in the BCS Rankings, a spot they had held all November. They had a defacto Big East Championship showdown against a top fifteen Pitt team, and had an outside shot at a BCS National Championship appearance.

First, Cincinnati needed to comeback against the Panthers in the snow. After a missed extra point by the Panthers late, Tony Pike hit Armon Binns to give Cincinnati the 45-44 win. Cincinnati now had; a perfect 12-0 season for the first time in program history, a second consecutive Big East Championship, and the respective BCS Bowl that comes with that honor.

However, the Bearcats ended up falling short in their chance for a spot in the BCS Championship. Alabama knocked off Florida in the SEC Championship. Texas barely knocked off Nebraska and earned their spot in Pasadena for the National Championship. Cincinnati was #3 in the final BCS Rankings. Five days later, Brian Kelly accepted the job at Notre Dame, and the rest is history. Cincinnati looked overmatched in the Sugar Bowl against Florida, and fell to #8 in the final AP Poll. 

Cincinnati hasn’t reached the top five in any poll since that 2009 season. They reached #6 in the AP Poll on multiple occasions last season, but never cracked into the top five. This game presents the best opportunity to earn that spot. A win here could lead to the school’s second 12-0 regular season, an AAC Championship, and potentially a chance at the National Championship. Let’s take a look into one of the biggest games of the weekend.

Cincinnati at Notre Dame (+1.5)

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, IN
Date: Saturday, October 2nd, 2021
Time: 2:30 PM ET
TV: NBC

Since Head Coach Luke Fickell took over the Bearcats at the end of the 2016 season, the sky has been the limit for the program. After a transition 4-8 season, the Bearcats went 11-2, 11-3, and 9-1. They finally won the AAC a season ago and appear poised to do so once again this season. Kelly mentioned that this is the best team the Irish have played up to this point. I’d posit this is far and away the best team Notre Dame will play all season (and I think most of our writers were on this during the pre-season). They bring the most balanced attack they’ll see all season, and a defense that has strengths that lie in the offense’s strengths. This should be a true battle worthy of the “Top Ten Matchup” moniker.

Cincinnati’s Offense

I don’t mean to put RS Senior QB Desmond Ridder on blast with his comments he made earlier this week. I merely wanted to bring it up to comment on two things. The first is that you want your experienced starter to have this kind of confidence going into one of if not the hardest environment he’s played in. It sets the tone for both his play and the offense’s play. However, the Bearcats offense has had slow starts in their past two games. They were tied against Murray State at halftime and famously looked lost on offense through almost two quarters against Indiana.

However, Ridder and the Bearcats offense had a week off to try and address these issues. He’s been known as a dual threat QB for the Bearcats, and there’s some truth and deception to that in 2021. When he runs, he gets 8 yards a pop (shoutout to Jamie Uyeyama of ISD for that stat and most of the ones on here). The flip side is that he hasn’t run all that often thus far. As for Ridder’s arm, he’s improved his deep ball accuracy to help spread out the offense and keep defenses honest. However, against IU Ridder only averaged 5.8 YPA. There seems to be some belief that the Bearcats and OC Mike Denbrock (yet another ND-Cincy connection) will open up more for Ridder to do and unleash his fullest potential.

At the running back position Cincinnati turns to Alabama transfer Jerome Ford. He came in before the 2020 season and was the #2 back behind Gerrid Doaks. The sophomore famously gashed the Georgia defense early in the second half of the Sugar Bowl. Ford has been tough running, averaging 4 YPC after contact. If Fickell wants to lean on their running game to work clock, Ford will see a ton of work along with some RPO plays into the teeth of the Irish front seven.

Ford and Ridder are seemingly the strengths of their offense. That’s not to say their pass catchers are bad by any stretch. The targets just get thrown around to different players that no one has established themselves as a must stop receiver. Former Domer Michael Young led the team in receptions last season. He is currently second on the team in receptions, trailing only Alec Pierce. Pierce had his biggest game the previous week against Indiana, catching 5 of his 8 targets for 86 yards and a TD. 

The key for this offense is how they are going to deal with the Irish pass rushers. During the second half of the Sugar Bowl, Ridder and the Bearcats offense struggled when the Georgia rush got home. The Bulldogs got 8 sacks and 11 total havoc plays on passing plays. If the Irish can get even 75% of that then it will prob rattle Ridder. However, Ridder is probably one of the most mobile QBs the Irish will play this side of Navy. There will need to be someone (whether it’s Hamilton or one of the LBs) spying the Cincy QB to ensure his legs don’t burn the Irish.

Cincinnati’s Defense

The one big concern Irish fans should have is the pass rush of the Bearcats overwhelming the offensive line. The dormant rusher that could find success is the edge rusher Myjai Sanders. Sanders hasn’t recorded a sack thus far in his first three games, but there is a chance that he makes his name known. That on top of the lack of knowledge of who is going to play or not play from the Quarterback position, it is important to try and keep Sanders at bay.

At the linebacker position, there are some players that are very versatile at their position. Darrian Beavers appears to be more of a rusher than someone out in coverage, and he has 10 pressures on the season. It will be important for whomever is the QB on Saturday to identify where he is on the field for a potential pickup by whomever is joining him in the backfield. Deshawn Pace currently leads the team in tackles and appears to be the second level for running plays (and potentially covering either Mayer or Kyren out of the backfield). 

The secondary is the strength of the Bearcats. Out of the 9 takeaways for the defense, the Bearcats intercepted 6 passes. I also put above the tweet about their prowess in defending the deep ball. Granted, those passes are coming against a struggling IU, an average Miami (OH), and a FCS team. I think the secondary will have their toughest test against the Irish receivers. All-American Ahamad Gardner will probably play against Kevin Austin most of the game. However, if Gardner isn’t on Austin he will have help covering the Irish receivers. Arquan Bush and Coby Bryant will take on Braden Lenzy and Avery Davis. I’m willing to bet that this secondary will be the best unit the Notre Dame offense faces all season.

Prediction

My prediction has changed over and over since the pre-season. When we had the pre-season survey about the Irish season, I personally picked 10-2, with losses over Cincinnati and North Carolina. As someone who writes about the Group of 5 for this site, I feel like I have a good indication of what teams are capital G Good compared to good for a G5 school. Cincinnati is GOOD. I think they have the experience in the right spots to compete and have the pedigree and schedule to compete at the top level of the sport.

The question remains, will they do that? Will Cincinnati come into Notre Dame Stadium and knock off the Irish and their 25 game home winning streak? I was reading the beat writer talk on The Athletic and Justin Williams and Pete Sampson seem to agree that this game will be whomever can get to 30 points first. I have faith in Marcus Freeman subduing the Bearcat offense. The questions solely lie with where the Irish offense is going and who is going to lead it. Plus, how many times has a team come into Notre Dame Stadium as their Super Bowl, and actually come out on top? The answer might be South Florida and that was a decade ago. I think because of that, it will be a close game. I think the experience of the Irish team, and the pure fun they seem to be having on top of their experience, makes the difference in the ball game. 

Notre Dame 27

Cincinnati 24