This is probably the biggest regular season weekend for Cincinnati since the weekend of December 5th, 2009. The Bearcats came into the weekend at #5 in the BCS Rankings, a spot they had held all November. They had a defacto Big East Championship showdown against a top fifteen Pitt team, and had an outside shot at a BCS National Championship appearance.
First, Cincinnati needed to comeback against the Panthers in the snow. After a missed extra point by the Panthers late, Tony Pike hit Armon Binns to give Cincinnati the 45-44 win. Cincinnati now had; a perfect 12-0 season for the first time in program history, a second consecutive Big East Championship, and the respective BCS Bowl that comes with that honor.
However, the Bearcats ended up falling short in their chance for a spot in the BCS Championship. Alabama knocked off Florida in the SEC Championship. Texas barely knocked off Nebraska and earned their spot in Pasadena for the National Championship. Cincinnati was #3 in the final BCS Rankings. Five days later, Brian Kelly accepted the job at Notre Dame, and the rest is history. Cincinnati looked overmatched in the Sugar Bowl against Florida, and fell to #8 in the final AP Poll.
Cincinnati hasn’t reached the top five in any poll since that 2009 season. They reached #6 in the AP Poll on multiple occasions last season, but never cracked into the top five. This game presents the best opportunity to earn that spot. A win here could lead to the school’s second 12-0 regular season, an AAC Championship, and potentially a chance at the National Championship. Let’s take a look into one of the biggest games of the weekend.
Cincinnati at Notre Dame (+1.5)
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, IN
Date: Saturday, October 2nd, 2021
Time: 2:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
Since Head Coach Luke Fickell took over the Bearcats at the end of the 2016 season, the sky has been the limit for the program. After a transition 4-8 season, the Bearcats went 11-2, 11-3, and 9-1. They finally won the AAC a season ago and appear poised to do so once again this season. Kelly mentioned that this is the best team the Irish have played up to this point. I’d posit this is far and away the best team Notre Dame will play all season (and I think most of our writers were on this during the pre-season). They bring the most balanced attack they’ll see all season, and a defense that has strengths that lie in the offense’s strengths. This should be a true battle worthy of the “Top Ten Matchup” moniker.
Cincinnati’s Offense
Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder said OC Mike Denbrock warned him about how loud Notre Dame would be on Saturday. Ridder’s response? “I told him it shouldn’t be loud for too long.” #Bearcats
— Brandon Saho (@BrandonSaho) September 28, 2021
I don’t mean to put RS Senior QB Desmond Ridder on blast with his comments he made earlier this week. I merely wanted to bring it up to comment on two things. The first is that you want your experienced starter to have this kind of confidence going into one of if not the hardest environment he’s played in. It sets the tone for both his play and the offense’s play. However, the Bearcats offense has had slow starts in their past two games. They were tied against Murray State at halftime and famously looked lost on offense through almost two quarters against Indiana.
However, Ridder and the Bearcats offense had a week off to try and address these issues. He’s been known as a dual threat QB for the Bearcats, and there’s some truth and deception to that in 2021. When he runs, he gets 8 yards a pop (shoutout to Jamie Uyeyama of ISD for that stat and most of the ones on here). The flip side is that he hasn’t run all that often thus far. As for Ridder’s arm, he’s improved his deep ball accuracy to help spread out the offense and keep defenses honest. However, against IU Ridder only averaged 5.8 YPA. There seems to be some belief that the Bearcats and OC Mike Denbrock (yet another ND-Cincy connection) will open up more for Ridder to do and unleash his fullest potential.
At the running back position Cincinnati turns to Alabama transfer Jerome Ford. He came in before the 2020 season and was the #2 back behind Gerrid Doaks. The sophomore famously gashed the Georgia defense early in the second half of the Sugar Bowl. Ford has been tough running, averaging 4 YPC after contact. If Fickell wants to lean on their running game to work clock, Ford will see a ton of work along with some RPO plays into the teeth of the Irish front seven.
Ford and Ridder are seemingly the strengths of their offense. That’s not to say their pass catchers are bad by any stretch. The targets just get thrown around to different players that no one has established themselves as a must stop receiver. Former Domer Michael Young led the team in receptions last season. He is currently second on the team in receptions, trailing only Alec Pierce. Pierce had his biggest game the previous week against Indiana, catching 5 of his 8 targets for 86 yards and a TD.
The key for this offense is how they are going to deal with the Irish pass rushers. During the second half of the Sugar Bowl, Ridder and the Bearcats offense struggled when the Georgia rush got home. The Bulldogs got 8 sacks and 11 total havoc plays on passing plays. If the Irish can get even 75% of that then it will prob rattle Ridder. However, Ridder is probably one of the most mobile QBs the Irish will play this side of Navy. There will need to be someone (whether it’s Hamilton or one of the LBs) spying the Cincy QB to ensure his legs don’t burn the Irish.
Cincinnati’s Defense
The one big concern Irish fans should have is the pass rush of the Bearcats overwhelming the offensive line. The dormant rusher that could find success is the edge rusher Myjai Sanders. Sanders hasn’t recorded a sack thus far in his first three games, but there is a chance that he makes his name known. That on top of the lack of knowledge of who is going to play or not play from the Quarterback position, it is important to try and keep Sanders at bay.
At the linebacker position, there are some players that are very versatile at their position. Darrian Beavers appears to be more of a rusher than someone out in coverage, and he has 10 pressures on the season. It will be important for whomever is the QB on Saturday to identify where he is on the field for a potential pickup by whomever is joining him in the backfield. Deshawn Pace currently leads the team in tackles and appears to be the second level for running plays (and potentially covering either Mayer or Kyren out of the backfield).
Good luck throwing downfield on the Bearcats.
Cincinnati leads the nation with a 22.2% completion rate allowed on throws 10 or more yards downfield pic.twitter.com/56iheZ6lTA
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) September 30, 2021
The secondary is the strength of the Bearcats. Out of the 9 takeaways for the defense, the Bearcats intercepted 6 passes. I also put above the tweet about their prowess in defending the deep ball. Granted, those passes are coming against a struggling IU, an average Miami (OH), and a FCS team. I think the secondary will have their toughest test against the Irish receivers. All-American Ahamad Gardner will probably play against Kevin Austin most of the game. However, if Gardner isn’t on Austin he will have help covering the Irish receivers. Arquan Bush and Coby Bryant will take on Braden Lenzy and Avery Davis. I’m willing to bet that this secondary will be the best unit the Notre Dame offense faces all season.
Prediction
My prediction has changed over and over since the pre-season. When we had the pre-season survey about the Irish season, I personally picked 10-2, with losses over Cincinnati and North Carolina. As someone who writes about the Group of 5 for this site, I feel like I have a good indication of what teams are capital G Good compared to good for a G5 school. Cincinnati is GOOD. I think they have the experience in the right spots to compete and have the pedigree and schedule to compete at the top level of the sport.
The question remains, will they do that? Will Cincinnati come into Notre Dame Stadium and knock off the Irish and their 25 game home winning streak? I was reading the beat writer talk on The Athletic and Justin Williams and Pete Sampson seem to agree that this game will be whomever can get to 30 points first. I have faith in Marcus Freeman subduing the Bearcat offense. The questions solely lie with where the Irish offense is going and who is going to lead it. Plus, how many times has a team come into Notre Dame Stadium as their Super Bowl, and actually come out on top? The answer might be South Florida and that was a decade ago. I think because of that, it will be a close game. I think the experience of the Irish team, and the pure fun they seem to be having on top of their experience, makes the difference in the ball game.
You could talk me into any outcome here. Obviously close win either side, maybe a notre dame victory where they pull away late a la Virginia 2019 or conversely this notre dame team is kind of setup to get their ass kicked one game, run game does nothing, qb throws some picks couple with all the three and outs. Really hope it’s not that. My predictions are all pessimistic so I won’t make one, but part of me wonders or just hopes something flipped with this team after the tyree kick return. They showed a killer instinct last week that had been missing for 3 weeks.
Also mike denbrock is their OC. I had to google it when you said Sanford because I couldn’t believe I didn’t realize that.
Sanford is OC at U of Minn.
Yeah I done goofed on that one (and since edited it). Earlier this week (while writing this on a google doc) I was talking to my buddy about Minnesota and Sanford and got my wires crossed! Thanks for the heads up!
With their secondary being so good apparently, the thing I’m most worried about are INTs. With our offense so weak turnovers could torpedo the ship quickly and if inexperienced Pyne/Buchner get more snaps I’m more worried about the INT.
Also nothing to do with the game preview but pretty loaded recruiting weekend set, especially 2023. Would be a good time to duplicate usc 2017 or Stanford 2018 on a bunch of levels
Games aren’t played by history, of course, but it’s worth noting that Cincinnati has never beaten a top 10 team on the road.
Also, their recent track record against top-level P5 teams is not good:
2020: L #8 Georgia 24-21
2019: L #5 Ohio State 42-0
2017: L #8 Michigan 36-14
2014: L #22 Ohio State 50-28
2012: L # 16 Louisville 34-31
I may regret saying this, but I think there’s a lot of wishful thinking surrounding Cincy in this game and not enough thinking about what has actually occurred on the football field. I’ll say ND 27-17.
Rooting for a 2019 outcome.
This is almost exactly where I’m at. It risks being to dismissive of Cincy, but….It’s Cincy. I don’t even think they’re 2017 UCF as a “legit G of 5 contender” type.
This could be wrong, but especially with Freeman defecting, I’m expecting a masterful game plan on both sides of the ball for Notre Dame. We’ll see with the execution.
And for the talent, if these 2 teams were one team, how many Cincinnati players would be starting over their ND counterparts. Ridder would (big deal considering importance) but I doubt too many others would be. The talent is in ND’s favor, the coaching ought to be and they’re at home where they haven’t lost for 4+ years now.
I can’t see Cincy changing that. I’m at about 27-17 too, maybe even 31-17. Could unravel and go a different way, but it shouldn’t.
Darrian Beavers…any relation to:
I think that the key this game is ND avoiding any soul-crushing turnovers. ND should have a talent advantage over any Group of 5 team, but they can’t give a team like Cincy free points (or set-ups for easy points)
Here’s to hoping Freeman can channel his inner Jack ryan a la clear and present danger against….
Ritter (ridder)
“Not black and white, right and wrong.” Jack (Coan) wins in the end, but Ritter (Ridder) sure had the upper hand in this scene.
I’ll take that trade-off: concede temporary upper hand to win the bout.
Plus, Ritter was such a wiener that whole movie! Great casting great acting on his part, he crushed that role.
Just watched this a few nights ago
I feel very fuzzy when trying to make a prediction on this game. Ultimately I land on what Pete Sampson highlighted in his podcast: Over the last three-plus seasons, Notre Dame has lost to Clemson at a neutral site, Georgia on the road, Michigan on the road, Clemson as a neutral site, and Alabama at a neutral site.
That’s it. That’s the entire list. This game is at home, and while Cincinnati is good they’re clearly not in the same class physically as those four programs. I like the Irish in a close one, because they know how to win these games.
I agree — just playing the odds, Cincy being favored is a head-scratcher to me. ND has not lost a home game in more than four years, and that was a one-point loss to the national runner-up and one of the most talented teams in the country. And as I mentioned above, Cincy has never — not once in their history — beaten a top 10 opponent on the road.
Also, like Wisconsin last week, Cincy’s resume is not impressive. They’ve beaten an FCS team, a bad MAC team, and a middling-to-bad P5 team. Like Wisconsin, they’ve played one fewer game than ND, which I think is a disadvantage for them at this point.
Could Cincy win? Yeah, definitely. Is there much that points to that as the most likely outcome? No, not really.
I was talking with a football-smart friend this morning and he said he thought that if ND had better OL play they would be favored by seven. That’s the fly in the ointment here. Everything else points to an ND win, but the OL play has been so bad that the potential for the offense to be glued in neutral all day is out there.
On the other hand, the offense just played a legitimately good defense – Wisconsin is 4th in both SP+ defense and FEI defense – and put up 20 points despite the OL almost getting both QBs killed. I think we’ll be able to find some holes, I just hope that we can do it often enough to be effective.
This ND team doesn’t seem to be nearly as good as those ND teams. Maybe in line with the one who got smoked by Michigan.
60% chance of thunderstorms at kickoff. ND doesn’t have a great record in rain games under CBK. (In my head at least. L @ USF, Clemson, NC St, Mich. W v Stanford ’12, @ Stanford ’18)
vs. Stanford 14 was in the freezing rain too.
That is the most physically miserable I’ve ever been at a football game, holy shit. Pouring rain with a wind chill of 31 F.
Was that the 4th and a million game from Golson?
Yeah, he threw a bomb to (I think) Koyack for the win.
Koyack was open forever and frantically waving for the ball, and Golson hit him at literally the last possible second. We were up near the scoreboard for that game; we saw the play unfold but the actual catch was obscured from view, so our celebration was delayed a second until we processed the celebration of the people right there in the corner.
Hell of a moment. All the cold went away in an instant. (And then it came back.)
I was in the southwest corner for that game. I couldn’t see the catch get made (people standing down there were in the way) but I saw the ref’s hands go up before anyone else in our section and I started jumping up and down while everyone else just stared. We didn’t actually see the catch until we caught dinner in a bar after the game and the bar TV showed highlights. And yes, it was cold. But, I wear the ND hoodie I bought for that game before the game (because I didn’t fly in with enough warm clothes) to every cold weather game since and that hoodie is unbeaten. Let’s hope USC is a cold weather game (I’ll be there and will wear the hoodie if it’s cold enough).
Don’t be shy about putting on the hoodie, Cubsfan!
Cold is relative. My wife is cold when it’s 75 and sunny. Pop that dude on anytime you’re in the Eastern Time Zone.
That was the closest I’ve come to dying at a football game.
By my count (with run/pass splits included for reasons you can guess):
2010 SC – 32 runs, 34 passes. W 20-16
2011 USF – 29 runs, 49 passes. L 23-20
2012 Stanford – 44 runs, 28 passes. W 20-13
2014 Stanford – 32 runs, 43 passes. W 17-14
2015 Clemson – 32 runs, 35 passes. L 24-22
2016 NC State – 38 runs, 26 passes. L 10-3
2017 Navy – 31 runs, 18 passes. W 24-17
2019 Michigan – 31 runs, 29 passes, L 45-14
So 4-4 overall, 2-2 when passing more than running and 2-2 when running more than passing. Doesn’t seem to say much one way or the other…
Well, those 4 wins are 3.6% of wins under CBK and the 4 losses are 10.25% of losses, so it is slightly skewed one way. (Also helpful that I can remember the losses and not the wins)
Correct (also Drick is right about Stanford 2019).
If there’s any pattern there, it’s that we just run our normal offense in bad weather.
W @ Stanford ’19 (not as I guessed ’18) was also rainy. Was a solid butt whooping.
2019 Michigan was a weird situation. We were the better team everywhere but on that day, when I think our guys came in believing their press clippings way too much. We were -6 in that game, IIRC, and I thought it was ridiculous.
Also I would put this defense and offensive skill position talent up against just about any that BK has had. It’s just the damn OL that’s been so bad it threatens to outweigh everything else. I’m cautiously optimistic that Carmody’s return and the incremental improvements we’ve seen from Lugg and the LG spot will make it good enough to get the job done.
That team in 19 was probably in a bad headspace as well, since it was either right before the game or right after that Michael Young announced he was leaving the program, followed a month later by Chip Long getting fired.
I think Cinci is wildly over rated. I expect us to beat them rather easily.
But then again, we’re pretty over rated too. Neither team has played a decent offense yet.
Any word on the health of Coan and Buchner? I think that Kelly is being coy as he was last week with Buchner. Not sure Coan will be able to go, that’s my gut
Kelly was saying pretty much all week that Coan has been practicing and been ahead of expectations. Could be smoke screen but we’ll see. Official word is Coan and Pyne have been splitting first team reps, and Buchner has been running his packages.
I could be wrong, but I think Coan starts. If injury/performance limits, then Pyne is in. Buchner sprinkled in situationally as needed. With the way this year has gone, wouldn’t be shocking to see all three, so I guess time will tell.
This is a tough matchup to predict — just like last week. I don’t think Cinci’s offense is good enough to score 24 on ND unless they have some wrinkle’s they haven’t show yet. But then again, Freeman should know all of their wrinkles from his time there.
I’ll pick ND 17 — Cinci 13.
Go Irish!
Just got a notification that Baker is out today. Yikes. Hope Carmody is fully healthy.