This Saturday afternoon Notre Dame will be playing in its 26th major bowl game (including the 2012 BCS National Championship Game) and is making its 6th appearance in the Fiesta Bowl. After winning their first Fiesta Bowl game back in 1988 to clinch the school’s last National Championship, the Irish have lost their last 4 appearances in the game concluding the 1994, 2000, 2005, and 2015 seasons.
This weekend’s opponent capping off the 2021 season is Oklahoma State, marking their first-ever meeting against Notre Dame.
Oklahoma State (+2) vs. Notre Dame
It’s the 51st Fiesta Bowl but 50th year anniversary.
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
Date: Saturday, January 1, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
The Cowboys entered the 17th year of Mike Gundy’s reign in a weird spot. They were spinning their wheels a bit throughout 2018-19 (15-11 overall, 8-10 in the Big 12) and after the departure of quarterback Mason Rudolph (76th overall to the Steelers) hadn’t found much success with their offense which had driven so much of Gundy’s prior success.
Improvement on offense really hasn’t come for 2021 but with a 6-0 start (after which Gundy signed a new perpetual 5-year contract with the school) the Pokes relied on an improving and very effective defense. This is not the Big 12 we are used to in our lives! Oklahoma State eventually made it to 11-1 on the season–and thanks to a controversial win against rival Oklahoma–made it to the Big 12 Championship where their offense (16 points, 3.78 yards per play, 66 rushing yards) let them down against Baylor in their quest for the league crown and possible playoff berth.
Oklahoma State’s Offense
Oklahoma State was elated to have running back Chuba Hubbard come back for 2020 following a NCAA-leading 2,094 yards the prior year but it was a disappointing season with just 625 yards in 7 games. Hubbard became a 4th round pick this past spring and the Cowboys were set to work through a rotation at tailback before former JUCO and Utah State player Jaylen Warren (5’8″ 215 lbs.) transferred in for a 5th year taking over the starting duties to total 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns while being named the Big 12’s Offensive Newcomer of the Year. He was injured for the Big 12 Championship but should be healthy for this weekend.
The Cowboys were hit hard with turnover at the skill positions this off-season. Leading 2020 receiver Tylan Wallace was drafted in the 4th round by the Ravens while 2nd-leading receiver Dillon Stoner signed as a free agent after catching 191 career passes in Stillwater. They also saw 4th receiver Landon Wolf grad transfer to South Dakota State, tight end Jelani Woods left for Virginia, and 3rd-leading receiver Braydon Johnson has been out all season since an injury suffered in the first game.
As a result, Oklahoma State has relied heavily on 4 true freshmen and 1 redshirt freshmen to add depth with true sophomore Brennan Presley (5’8″ 175 lbs.) stepping up to catch 40 passes. They took advantage of the Covid year to bring back former Washington State receiver Tay Martin (6’3″ 186 lbs.) who leads the team with 70 receptions, 942 yards, and 7 touchdowns while being named 2nd-team All-Big 12.
| STAT | ND DEFENSE | OSU OFFENSE |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 13th | 67th |
| FEI | 9th | 49th |
| Scoring | 9th | 51st |
| Yards Per Play | 35th | 91st |
| Rushing Yards Per Carry | 43rd | 75th |
| QB Rating | 14th | 80th |
| 3rd Down Conversions | 19th | 25th |
Their offensive line brought back a lot of experience for 2021 but struggled early with the injury to redshirt junior right guard Hunter Woodard (6’5″ 300) and incorporating Miami (OH) 6th-year transfer Danny Godlevske (6’2″ 300) in at center. They’ve also shuffled some positions throughout the year but have settled on redshirt sophomore Cole Birmingham (6’5″ 308) at left tackle, 6th-year senior Josh Sills (6’6″ 325) at left guard, and redshirt sophomore Preston Wilson (6’5″ 295) at right tackle. Godlevske has missed the last 4 games with injury and has been ruled out for the Fiesta Bowl so OSU should keep redshirt sophomore Joe Michalski (6’4″ 300) at center.
It’s been a down year for Sanders and the Cowboys offense.
Following a promising redshirt freshman season back in 2019, Oklahoma State has been hoping quarterback Spencer Sanders (6’1″ 210 lbs.) would break out and it hasn’t happened. He missed nearly 3 full games to start 2020, missed the 2021 opener in Covid protocols, and his passer rating plus yards per attempt have fallen each of the last 2 years. Most frustratingly for Cowboys fans are the 31 interceptions on 519 career attempts, including 6 in the last 2 games.
Sanders does remain a potent runner and should be utilized a lot in this aspect. He has run for 1,440 yards in his career and 6 out of his 10 touchdowns on the ground have come this season. Perhaps signaling a down year offensively for the league, Sanders was named first-team All-Big 12 earlier this month despite being 83rd nationally and second-to-last among Big 12 quarterbacks in passer rating.
Oklahoma State’s Defense
Just under 4 years ago, Mike Gundy made one of the best hires of recent memory by plucking defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Duke. Since then, the Cowboys defense has risen from 79th in 2018, to 30th in 2019, 14th last year, and all the way to 2nd for 2021 according to FEI.
That effort did not go unnoticed as Knowles has already left for Ohio State where he’ll make a whopping $1.9 million per season to coordinate the Buckeyes. We’ll see him in Columbus to open 2022. Gundy hasn’t officially said who will call plays against Notre Dame but most expect it to be defensive line coach Joe Bob Clements.
Oklahoma State was poised to get even better in 2021 replacing just 3 starters on defense with only corner Rodarius Williams going in the NFL Draft 201st overall to the Giants. Promising junior defensive end Trace Ford (7.5 career sacks) did tear up his knee before the season, too. Otherwise, they brought a ton of experienced depth back, with several defenders taking advantage of the Covid rules for an extra year.
| STAT | ND OFFENSE | OSU DEFENSE |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 20th | 5th |
| FEI | 26th | 2nd |
| Scoring | 20th | 7th |
| Yards Per Play | 43rd | 4th |
| Rushing Yards Per Carry | 66th | 5th |
| QB Rating | 26th | 14th |
| 3rd Down Conversions | 62nd | 2nd |
The Cowboys favor a 4-2-5 defensive scheme utilizing 3 safeties almost exclusively while their “Leo” defensive end is a hybrid pass-rusher who is moved all over the place not too dissimilar to Marcus Freeman’s Vyper position with players like Isaiah Foskey.
Slotting into that Leo position is 5th-year senior 1st-team All-Big 12 Brock Martin (6’3″ 250 lbs.) backed up by true freshman Collin Oliver (6’2″ 225 lbs.) who is pretty much the only non-upperclassman making a big impact for the Cowboys defense. They’ve combined for 27 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks with Oliver leading all freshmen nationally in sacks with 10.5 to become Big 12 Freshmen of the Year. Redshirt junior Tyler Lacy (6’4″ 295 lbs.) is no slouch at defensive end on the other side, either. He’s accounted for 11.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks in 2021.
On the interior, OSU relies heavily on 5th-year senior Brendon Evers (6’2″ 295 lbs.) and senior Israel Antwine (6’3″ 300 lbs.) with 5th-year senior Sione Asi (6’1″ 320 lbs.) in a reserve role.
Jim Knowles left for the Ohio State DC job.
Oklahoma State’s linebackers are very aggressive and both 5th-year seniors. Devin Harper (6’0″ 235 lbs.) has 85 tackles, 10 TFL, 6 sacks, and 15 quarterback hurries. Malcolm Rodriguez (5’11” 225 lbs.) leads the team with 120 tackles (tied 11th nationally) with 15 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 9 quarterback hurries, and 4 forced fumbles while being named 1st-team All-Big 12.
Fifth-year senior safety Tre Sterling (5’11” 205 lbs.) came back for his 3rd year of starting but was thought to be done for the year following an injury in OSU’s opener. However, he’s been slowly making his way back and saw some action in November. In his absence, the Pokes have relied on senior Kolby Harvell-Peel (6’0″ 207 lbs.) who’s one of the top safeties in the country (3-time All-Big 12 selection) with senior Tanner McCallister (5’11” 195 lbs.) returning as starter and redshirt junior Jason Taylor (6’0″ 215 lbs.) stepped up after a backup role in 2020.
Both of the Cowboys’ top corners started every game and picked up all-conference honors. Senior Jarrick Bernard Converse (6’1″ 200 lbs.) has made an incredible 46 straight starts and has broken up 10 passes on his way to 1st-team All-Big 12 honors while 6th-year senior Christian Holmes (6’1″ 205 lbs.) was a former transfer from Missouri in 2020 and broke up 7 passes this year for 2nd-team All-Big 12 honors.
Prediction
This is a fascinating game on so many levels. Notre Dame is trying to shake the major bowl monkey off its back and enters the first day of 2022 in a weird space facing a team it has never played before with virtually no shared history between the programs.
First Meeting
The Big 12 is by far the conference Notre Dame has faced the least among the Power 5 and the unfamiliarity involved with Oklahoma State adds some spice and intrigue. I know the game against Iowa State a couple years ago (also the first meeting) might dampen the excitement for another Big 12 team, but not for me.
Notre Dame has only played 37 games ever against the current Big 12 members with 23 of those games coming against Oklahoma or Texas. Since 2002, the Irish have faced only 5 Big 12 teams, again, with OU and Texas taking up 4 of those contests.
Inverted Big 12 Talent
Oklahoma State has long been known for throwing the ball all over the yard and having a defense that isn’t quite up to par. Just a few years back, quarterback Mason Rudolph threw for 4,904 yards–the most ever by a non-Texas Tech quarterback in the Big 12. That same year they allowed at least 30 points in 6 games but still went 10-3 overall.
This year, their defense is more than stout. Plus, they don’t throw the ball that much, even less per game than Notre Dame! It feels bizarrely upside down.
Coaching Change
Oklahoma State’s defensive coordinator left while Notre Dame’s head coach and special teams coordinator are both gone. At least from the Irish side of things it’s quite possible we’ve been swept up by the energy of the first 30 days of the Marcus Freeman era but this still remains an insanely wild turn of events in South Bend.
Freeman was at Cincinnati less than a year ago and now leads Notre Dame for a shot at a Fiesta Bowl victory and a chance to bring off-season happiness to a school that’s sorely been missing it for 30 years.
Oklahoma State favors a 4-2-5 with 3 safeties as a base defense.
In Freeman’s press conference this week he said running the ball and stopping the ball will be key to victory. That’s coachspeak, I think. Oklahoma State being 1st nationally in sacks is scary but also being 1st in tackles for loss, 4th in yards per carry allowed, and 2nd in 3rd down conversions allowed is much scarier.
The Irish shouldn’t be spending too much time running the ball, especially without Kyren Williams. Maybe a little bit early on to feel things out in what should be a low-scoring game but a huge commitment to the run could be incredibly futile and leave the offense in a ton of difficult passing downs only feeding into the Cowboys’ sack abilities. I also trust Blake Fisher’s pass-blocking instincts much more than him coming back after missing 11.5 games and being on point with his run blocking physicality from the right tackle spot.
Quick passing, get the ball out, and rely heavily on Michael Mayer. Don’t shoot yourself in the foot. The Irish offense doesn’t need to be great to win this game.
Stopping the Oklahoma State run game will be important insofar as it means containing Sanders’ legs (36 first down runs & 22 runs of 10+ yards) and forcing the Cowboys to rely on a thin receiving corps which hopefully leads to a crucial turnover or two through the air.
We’ve had a month to stew about this game with Freeman controlling the program. In some respects, the outside world may think Notre Dame losing its long-time coach and facing a veteran Mike Gundy is probably bad news. However, in terms of story lines I keep coming back to 2 things:
#1 Blue-Chip Factor
On paper, Notre Dame is vastly more talented. From Oklahoma State’s last 5 recruiting cycles (2017-21) they’ve signed 8 prospects who were 4-stars with no 5-stars. From that group, 3 have transferred, 4 others do not play, which leaves the lone blue-chip impact player: Quarterback Spencer Sanders the No. 171 national recruit from the 2018 class.
For as much complaining about this being a down year for Notre Dame’s schedule someone could be awfully skeptical of this Oklahoma State team’s run to the Fiesta Bowl featuring several close calls out of conference prior to a pretty lackluster year for the Big 12 as a whole.
We saw this a couple years ago against Iowa State who had a much more plucky offense compared to Oklahoma State but who was nevertheless overwhelmed by Notre Dame’s talent and execution. I’m anticipating some long stretches of offensive struggles by Notre Dame but perhaps even longer stretches for the Cowboys offense.
#2 Good Vibes
I’m choosing to stay positive. Some may think the Fiesta Bowl isn’t a big deal anymore with the playoffs now such a big thing. I disagree, this game still holds a lot of value. Not as much as in the past but still quite a lot.
Hiring Freeman only to have a lineup of a Fiesta Bowl followed by an opener at Ohio State next year is rough, man! Our new coach isn’t exactly easing into things with a bowl game against Syracuse and an opener next year against Purdue. I believe in my heart the Irish need this bowl win and will play with corresponding fire to maintain momentum for a fun and engaging off-season into Freeman’s first full year in South Bend.
I’m surprised you downplayed the run for Notre Dame, I think that is more than coachspeak and will be critical. Not sure how success ND will be with another new line configuration and the stout Ok St defense. They really are like the anti-Big 12 team with just OK offense and a great defense.
I have a bad feeling, hoping to be wrong but I see this as like 21-13 Oklahoma State. ND defense is down without Hart, Hamilton and I could see the offense spinning their wheels big time against this defense. Hopefully the talent difference mentioned above is a real factor and the Irish are just the better team. That would be fun to be wrong.
I’ll be honest — over the last month I’ve gotten more negative about the Freeman hire and this game. But I definitely tend toward the pessimistic so hopefully that’s all it is.
If we assume a close game against OSU, I’m nervous about having a first time head coach making high pressure game management decisions, particularly against one of the most experienced coaches in the game.
On the other hand, maybe this will be a Camping World Bowl situation where being the best defense in the Big XII isn’t anything special.
For now I’ll say 20-17 Oklahoma State.
read the thamel article today on freeman. think it could be bumpy at times but reinforces freeman is worth the risk
True, and what was the alternative? Have everything they have built to this point scatter with players and coaches leaving en masse? To basically start over with Matt Campbell or Luke Fickell? Freeman is a risk, but sometimes you gotta roll the dice.
Love the preview as always Eric. I think I’m with you on the optimism and good vibes.
Biggest concerns for me are – how will the OL hold up against their defensive front, especially without Kyren’s ability to run and block. Coan’s (in)ability to evade pressure long enough to get the ball out. If they keep a man over the top and underneath Mayer, someone will need to step up (assuming there’s enough time to complete a route before a sack occurs :/)
If anyone is going to the game, or is familiar with the area, I’d really appreciate any info on tailgates/events happening pregame. I’m pretty much going in blind here without any idea of what to do/where to go. 11 am local kickoff doesn’t allow much time though.
i live in phoenix, actually lived at the apartments next to the stadium when I was just out of school. went to the ohio state game in 2015-16 there. 11am kick doesn’t leave much to do beforehand. honestly I would just plan on getting to west gate area early and you can grab drinks at yard house or one of the other bars. I did that before the ohio state game and it was solid. i’ll have my 6 year old with me so no bars for me
Appreciate it. Talked to a few people at work who said there’s a lot over at the west gate area now, so I’ll plan on that. Sounds like they open around 8-9 on Saturday. Looking forward to it!
I bartended (aka poured $1 pitchers) at Coach’s so I got a guy for that no bars problem. Does your 6yo own a fake mustache? That would help. Theoretically.
One more Q Cardinal – do you know if they sell alcohol in the stadium for bowl games?
99.9% sure. pretty sure they did last time, they sold it at the minnesota bowl game at chase field and I can’t think of any reason they wouldn’t
Enjoy you two (and the six year old!) and anyone else who’s going. It’s been a long dam’ time since I was there 9Granted, different stadium) in ’88 but we’re counting on you to help bring the mojo back!
Concur on Eric’s good vibes. BK never really got the ND spirit. Let’s hope our young coach can and will.
Thanks noise. Really looking forward to it being my first bowl game. Been a lifelong fan so it’s been a long time coming!
I think turnovers will determine this one.
I watched the big 12 title game and thought oklahoma state sucked but as we get closer to the game and nd has injuries and opt outs, my feelings on ok state have flipped. I don’t feel great about nd getting the win but any win would feel so dang good and like you said make the offseason joy.
Ok. st top RB was out during that game and was a huge loss. QB had some TO’s so D was put in a lot of short fields. I wouldn’t use that game alone to determine how good Sk. St. is.
Notre Dame is 0-4 in bowl games against OSU teams (0-3 in the Fiesta Bowl).
Not that that’s relevant lol. Should be a good game. I was born in 1993 so I have been waiting my whole life to see ND win a major bowl. Let’s go!!
One weird thing of the last month is the game opened up at -2.5, and in the interim we’ve lost Kyren, Lugg, and Hart, and the line is… -2. There hasn’t been any comparable OSU news.
I think the Hart injury might be the biggest deal of all for the game. I would be surprised if OSU wins by 13 or more, but any other result wouldn’t surprise me. A real 50/50 game.
OSU starting center is out I believe as well as their 3rd leading receiver. Gundy said someone was out with covid too I thought I saw, but wouldn’t elaborate.
Regarding Hart, didn’t freeman say he’s good to go at his presser today? He obviously wouldn’t be 100% if he plays but I think he can contribute meaningful snaps even at less than 100%.
He did say he would be playing. Thigh bruise from a knee at practice. If all that “good on good” and intensity only yielded that injury (Lugg was non-contact on an existing meniscus problem) and if as a result we tackle better, for me it’s worth it.
Have a super time at the game!!! Make (More) Noise !!
Yup sounds like Hart is good to go – just a bit banged up with a bruise.
Spread has dropped to -1 since this comment
I think the game is going to hinge on our ability to get the ball out quick. If we can do that, think we can win it.
Denbrock to LSU as OC.
Feels very uninspiring today for the LSU perspective. Not surprising at all given Kelly tendencies but yikes.
That’s…yeah.
Kelly’s staff building at LSU has been generally better than I expected, but Denbrock is a big yikes.
Kelly’s getting the band (that almost got him fired) back together!
Happy new year and lol Michigan
That one guy here is punching air.
Semifinals more of the same, and hopefully the perception is changing that it isn’t an ND problem, it’s basically an anyone problem to lose by 20+ to Bama or Clemson/tOSU at their peaks. The issue with a 4 team playoff is someone has to be ranked 4th and that team is going to be miles away from the #1 team, and that will be very obvious, very quickly.
But 4 team playoff is still a good thing, if this year was BCS it would have been Alabama/Michigan as championship game and that wouldn’t have been fitting or a good game either.
I won a lot of money on Alabama, even pushing spread to 17.5, 18.5. Cincy is good but given how Bama’s big guys on both sides man-handled ND last year, I thought the class there would show. For as spread offense and vertical attack as the modern game is, Alabama still has the RB and line to go 2-300 rush yards, and their defense has 1st/2nd round talent that will stop the run and pressure/tip balls/sack the QB regularly. It’s a skill game but it still is about which big guys are going to dominate the lines, and Bama’s overall talent and class is frightening.
And then they’re well-rounded enough to where they play UGA in a team that can compete with them in the trenches, Bama has a Heisman QB and Georgia has a former walk on.
ringin in the new year by bucking the NY6/BCS bowl monkey off the back sure would be nice
also lol michigan
Biggest choke in history??