I started the bones of this article back in November a few days after Lincoln Riley packed his bags for USC and then Brian Kelly decided Baton Rouge needed to be his new home so this news with the Trojans fell off the map for a while. Before we get started, dear USC, are you sure you don’t want another try with Clay Helton? One more shot for good old time sake? You’re totally sure?
Anyway, we’ll discuss if this will actually work out for USC but in terms of grading a hire you can’t blame athletic director Mike Bohn one bit for pulling off this type of a coup. Until proven otherwise, it’s an A+ hire with massive long-term potential.
Raising the Ceiling
With Riley, it would seem like a certainty that USC will rise to the cream of the crop of the Pac-12 eventually. We’ll talk below about why that might not happen right away in 2022 but by 2023 I’m sure the Trojans will look and feel like heavy favorites out west.
Things have been pretty sad at USC for a while so this will be a big step up for them.
This in and of itself probably isn’t a huge worry for Notre Dame. If USC turns into a 10-2 type of program that is routinely winning the Pac-12 but not pushing towards true National Championship aspirations it’s the best-case scenario for the Irish. It’s a primetime and meaningful game that is always winnable.
Are we sure Riley will push USC much higher, though?
He was 55-10 (.846) at Oklahoma although one could argue that wasn’t an improvement over Bob Stoops who gave Riley a well-stocked winning program. The Sooners did start 4-0 against ranked teams under Riley–including that shocking win in Columbus in just his 2nd game in charge–but did fall back to 9-7 against ranked teams since the post-season of 2017.
Recruiting & Offense
Most are thinking USC is more of a traditional power, able to recruit more nationally, and this will allow Lincoln Riley to put together even more potent offenses than he created at Oklahoma.
In terms of blue-chip ratios and raw recruiting rankings, I agree. It won’t be long before the Trojans amass a treasure of talent on offense, at least at the skill positions.
However, let’s not forget how high Riley set the bar at Oklahoma. His first 3 seasons with the Sooners saw their offense averaging right around 8 yards per play. No matter where you are, that type of consistent production is difficult to maintain as we saw the last 2 seasons in Norman where that YPP fell under 7 each year.
USC AD Mike Bohn with an absolute alpha move.
Being the best offense in the country is a very high bar to set. And frankly, I’m not sure if I’d argue the Pac-12 as currently constituted is more difficult than the Big 12 but I do think it’s a league a little bit more stiff with its defense and definitely more strange with road trips.
For example, I wouldn’t take it for granted that Riley’s USC would walk into Salt Lake City and drop 50 on a Friday night like Oklahoma felt like they could do against pretty much anyone in the Big 12.
Culture & Defense
Is it fair to say this might determine Riley’s tenure at USC? Even in these leans years USC has offered plenty of promise and star-power on offense. However, their defense and culture as a whole has been a mess for a long time.
Defensive end NFL prospect Drake Johnson could sneak into the 1st round this upcoming spring and would become the first Trojans defender do so since Adoree Jackson back in 2017. The last 4 drafts have featured 7 USC defenders selected and no top 40 picks. At best, they’ve been average defensively for a long time.
It’s possible Riley boosts USC’s offense to such a large degree that these things won’t matter as much but I doubt it.
Moreover, the bloom is off the rose for 41-year old defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who heads to Los Angeles with Riley after 3 mixed years at Oklahoma. Although Grinch carried the No. 7 national defense in 2020 (giving up a combined 75 points in their 2 losses, plus 45 points in a near-loss to Texas I might add) he oversaw the 58th and 62nd ranked defenses in his other 2 years in Norman.
He’ll now overtake a USC defense coming off maybe its worst season in school history, losing its best player, with only 5 defenders committed for the incoming 2022 class and no defensive commits yet for 2023. This is an absolute massive rebuilding job.
I’d be surprised if USC is really good next year. Even with a dose Riley magic they need big improvement along the offensive line, will replace perhaps the country’s top receiver, as well as losing their top 2 running backs for 2022. It’s lining up to be one of those situations where anything less than tremendous play on offense could set up an intriguing 2023 quarterback battle between presumptive starter Jaxson Dart and incoming No. 2 overall recruit Malachi Nelson who left Oklahoma’s class to be with Riley at USC.
For me, the rivalry with USC will never die. If ND goes 1-11, as long as the “1” is USC, I’m cool.
obviously this is hyperbole but nah. I mean nd beat usc in 2013 and 2019 and I don’t remember the usc wins at all but the michigan losses are way worse than the usc wins are good
Well, the Cubs fans and Cardinal fans are back to disagreeing.
I kind of go “Meh” with regard to the losses to Michigan. I agree that their fan base is one of the most obnoxious I’ve ever seen, and that there’s actually very little Michigan has accomplished to justify its notoriety. I agree that I get psyched for a Michigan game. I still “Remember the Six”. But, for me, USC is the blood game.
Maybe its the respective eras in which we grew up. I graduated from ND in 1974 during the Era of Ara, and we didn’t even play Michigan then. They were part of the “Big 2” in the Big 10, but they were definitely the little sister in that rivalry (still are mostly, this year notwithstanding) But, we sure played USC and those games were always electric. I’ve personally never attended a sporting event as electric as the ND/USC game of 1973, and that’s saying something.
I have to weigh in belatedly for a kind of senior circuit discussion between us three who were there then, as it were. Definitely USC was the only “huge” rival for a very long time (Army fell off the board after it got too huge in the late 1940’s). And it’s true, Michigan was not a thing until we started to play them again. But over and above their fan base’s comportment (on which I have no experience, really) I think it’s the 50-50 nature of the results since we started playing them again that have brought that match up to a level that merits Cardinal Baseball’s ire.
Having said that, for me, it’s USC that merits the honor of being our biggest rival, and as usual Eric is right on with this article exploring the implications of the Riley hire. And to give credit where due, I am in agreeance with Cardinal’s take below that this will juice up the rivalry which is a good thing but not make USC the untouchable machine of the Carroll years.
Which is the conclusion I draw from Eric as well.
In the meantime, beat them Cowpokes…
I remember when we were in school, noise, USC HAD our number big time, even ruining Ara’s first season finale, costing us a perfect year and likely the NC.
USC, Michigan, and OSU are my top three hated teams. Even tho we don’t play the latter very often. I went to the Fiesta Bowl under Weis, with Brady and Zibby and Shark. Not a close game, and the OSU fans were a disgrace to their school.
Kiwi, yeah, that ’64 loss was brutal. Especially because of that phantom holding call when we were at their 1 yard line to lock it up… Like Father Hesburgh then famously said to the student body, it surely hurt, but many times “we have done it to them and they have done it to us.” Which makes them a big rival still for me. Having said that, your pick of OSU is interesting. My dad was actually at the Game of the (20th) Century in Columbus in ’35 (Bill Shakespeare lived right down the hall from him) and had very similar remarks about their fan base. 🙂
So does my younger son who just spent years as a paramedic in Columbus — so maybe that’s a thing.
I feel like Kelly and Riley ended up at the wrong jobs.
SC can manufacture offense pretty easily given the local talent, but their lines and defense have been poor for a long time. Kelly is really good at lines and defense, and I think he’d improve their blasé culture a lot. And who cares if he comes across as fake — it’s LA.
LSU can manufacture defense pretty easily given the local talent, but their non-Joe Burrow offense has been sludgy caveman stuff for as long as I can remember. Riley is really good at offense and is the QB guru they’ve needed for decades.
Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think SC is just going to be a somewhat upgraded version of what they already are. Riley has never fielded a team that looks anything like the Pete Carroll juggernauts of the 2000s.
Never thought about it quite like that, but I think you’re right on.
This, however, I would push back on a little. Let’s take this hypothetical exercise: if every college coach in America was released from their contracts and they had an NFL draft but for coaches, where do you think Riley goes? (So we’re taking into account age, history, recruiting ability, results, culture, etc).
I bet Riley would be no lower than #5 with Saban+Day+Dabo+Smart, and Riley might not be #4 or #5 either. He didn’t build Oklahoma into a well-rounded title winner, but they got a trophy case full of Heisman’s thanks largely to Riley’s offense and recruiting. I think you gotta be a little more allowing for USC having a vibrant young coach who was 55-10 at Oklahoma and think that’s more than only a small step up from Clay freakin’ Helton’s last seven seasons..
The main question I have about Riley is whether he can actually build a program. In his first and only head coaching job, he was handed a fully-formed Oklahoma program and kept it at exactly the level it was performing at under Stoops — very good, but not a serious title contender.
SC is in a very different place right now than Oklahoma was in 2017. Their situation is more analogous to where ND was in 2010 when Kelly took over. I’m not convinced Riley is the right coach for that situation. I hope he isn’t.
None of those points you make are false, but just because Riley didn’t build a program at Oklahoma doesn’t mean he can’t and won’t be able to elsewhere. The level he recruited at OU and the start he’s off to as USC suggests he will be able to bring in the talent needed to elevate USC.
Also, I just don’t agree with the “very good, but not a serious title contender” mentality. Riley made the playoffs 3 years in a row from 2017-19. We can debate how “serious” they were since they didn’t do well once in the playoff, but they were right in the hunt.
Bob Stoops from 2009-15 had the program at a lower level compared to Riley reeling off 12-1 seasons on the reg before COVID. Stoops’ offense and team were on a down trend in 2013 and 2014 in the lead up to 2015 when he hired Riley and then Oklahoma really took off.
Just my opinion but I think people sleep on Riley a lot and factor a lot of his success to Oklahoma, when you can build a case it was kinda the other way around that he did just as much as anyone to help pull OU out of the doldrums they were in from 2009-14 and their turnaround ever since.
That’s really interesting come to think about them trading places.
Really interesting way to look at it. I thought kelly would have killed it at usc but had not thought of it in as specific terms as you laid out.
I agree with erica premise that riley is an A+ hire but think kelly or obviously urban would have been worse for ND. a think riley will make the nd usc game way more prestigious which is a great thing but I don’t think they’ll be an untouchable machine. He’s landed a bunch of 5 star recruits but feels like 7 on 7 all stars. If nd can continue to elevate their front 7 talent it will be a fun matchup to watch
We are very fortunate to have avoided Urban at SC. The LA Times probably would have gotten him fired in 2-3 years, but those 2-3 years would have been absolutely brutal for ND.
I think Urban’s ego got out of control and he became a legend in his own mind. I think his career is over.
I must say, kiwi, this seems true to me, and is a good thing for football…
As for ND, when we fired Tyrone, it was with the surety that we would land Urban (at least in our AD’s head, according to what Lou Somogyi whispered in my ear). Based on the off the field track record at Florida alone, I think we dodged a bad bullet.
Maybe we also lost a natty — if he managed that before the inevitable correction of ND’s religious leadership occurred– but for me at least, even that prize would have not been worth the price.
That’s all counter-factual speculation, but recent events bring it to my mind.
This is all ancient history now but I don’t think Urbz ever really wanted to work at ND, at least not since the 1990s.
The ND job was Urban’s for the taking in 2004 — literally all he had to do was say yes. Instead he took the Florida job and made sure to publicly embarrass ND in doing so. Then in 2009, when Urban was looking for a way out of Florida (remember his weird one-day resignation around Christmas), there was apparently no mutual interest between him and ND even though it was clear Weis was going to be fired. Actions speak louder than words, and most of Urban’s words are lies anyway. I don’t think he was ever going to come here.
As for whether his career is over now, I dunno. He seems to have gone kind of nutty over the past year, but a season or two of sports media whitewashing him can go a long way.
I agree. I think Riley is over rated and was underwhelming at Okie. Two Heisman qbs juiced the offense for awhile, but he’s not a complete coach, as his defenses always pretty much sucked. I’m not convinced he’s the real deal.
All credit to the QB’s! No credit to the coach who brought them in or offense he designed. 3 straight trips to the playoffs is underwhelming? Yeesh, Bob Stoops’ ending is waaay over-rated and Lincoln Riley is way under-rate.
IMO optimal place for USC program-wise is “ND beats them every year”, even if it means it’s not a quality win. But that may just be coming from the perspective of somebody who was in school for the ’05-’08 games.
Otherwise, I basically agree with everything here. Other than based on what I saw I think Jaxson Dart is the real deal and if he stays healthy I suspect there probably won’t be much of a QB competition in 2023.
Unrelated, but The Athletic just did a top 25 of current portal players “based on their experience, production, potential and how much interest they’re generating”.
5 were wide receivers, but based on my count all were under-grads and none seem like ND school fits (i.e. Taj Harris from Syracuse was going to go to Kentucky but had to back out due to a transfer credits issue. If one can’t get into UK, gotta be no where near Notre Dame…)
Maybe after bowl season some good grad transfers will enter the picture, but as of now the Austin, Lenzy and Davis re-recruitments are perhaps even more crucial in my mind. Pretty much need 2/3 of them back next year at a minimum and one really needs to be Austin.
Here’s the link: https://theathletic.com/3040342/2021/12/29/college-football-transfer-portal-top-25-best-available-tracking-the-hottest-names-looking-for-new-homes/
My dude has been at Syracuse since 2018 and couldn’t transfer to Kentucky? Oof.
Just saw on ND’s Instagram that MTA accepted an invitation to east west shrine bowl. Was he someone who was thinking of returning?
I thought he was on peoples radar for returning but I could be misremembering.
Also saw on Twitter that Cam Hart wasn’t practicing today. Not great Bob!
MTA could have had a COVID year to return for 2022, but it would have been his 6th year. I do know that no one ever really expected him to come back in 2022, even though he technically could have. I think that will be the case for most of the COVID-eligible guys, they might use it for a 5th year (like Doerer and Hinish did), but not likely to hang around for a 6th year (an exception is Josh Lugg who has talked about possibly coming back again next year).
I thought he was 60/40 gone, so I guess it’s 100% gone then.