When Notre Dame plays Texas in the 2016 season opener, the Longhorns will be breaking in a new offense for the second year in a row.
Last season, in a move that would make Charlie Weis proud, Texas offensive coordinator Shawn Watson – a longtime proponent of the pro-style West Coast Offense – decided he was going to install a no huddle, up tempo offense. The results were… well… they weren’t great.
On the surface, Watson’s plan wasn’t a bad one. Nearly every high school in Texas is running some form of the spread, so it makes sense for a school like Texas to install an offense the numerous talented offensive high school players in the state already know. But Watson was not the man to make that change.
So Watson is out and former Tulsa offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert is in. We’re going to dissect the Sterlin Gilbert offense in two posts. Today we’ll take a look at Gilbert’s Tulsa offense at a macro level – how his offense works from a 10,000 foot view. In part two, we’ll get our hands dirty and dive into the nuts and bolts of actual plays and formations.
Next Man In
Sterlin Gilbert comes from the Art Briles coaching tree. Though he has never worked directly with Briles, Gilbert was former Baylor assistant Dino Baber’s offensive coordinator at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green from 2012 to 2014. In 2015, Gilbert coached under longtime Briles assistant Phil Montgomery at Tulsa.
Gilbert is bringing the Baylor-style offense to Texas. It’s hard to pin a label on this offense (“spread,” “pro-style,” etc.) because it is so unique within college football. It’s easy to file it under the generic “spread” category because the offense moves fast and operates out of the shotgun. But Gilbert’s offense is unique in its almost extreme “spreadness” but with a smashmouth flavor to it. It also makes extensive use of packaged plays and run-pass options – so much so that this offense is sometimes compared to the triple option. The term “veer and shoot” was coined by (I believe) SBNation’s Ian Boyd as a way to express the option nature of the offense (the veer) combined with its wide open passing game (the run-and-shoot). We’ll go into this in more detail in part two.
By the Numbers
Let’s take a look at the raw numbers from Gilbert’s 2015 Tulsa offense to get a feel for how his offense operates. We’re going to look at traditional stats instead of diving into advanced stats because we’re just trying to see how this offense operates. For all you math nerds out there, you can check out Bill Connelly’s Tulsa preview here.
Overall, the offensive stats were impressive. Tulsa was 13th in the country in total offense, at 507.4 yards per game. Most of those yards came through the air – 333.2 pass yards per game, 11th in the country.
But though Tulsa had the most success throwing the ball, this was an offense that was committed to the running game. On the season, Tulsa ran the ball a total of 591 times to 492 pass attempts. But just because they liked to run doesn’t mean they were very good at it. Tulsa finished 61st in the country (almost smack dap in the middle) at 174.15 rush yards per game. That’s decent, but they averaged only 3.83 yards per rush – 103rd in the country.
For comparison, here are Tulsa’s running number compared to Notre Dame’s:
Tulsa – 591 rush attempts – 2264 yards – 3.83 yards per rush
Notre Dame – 480 attempts – 2703 yards – 5.63 yards per rush
Tulsa ran the ball over 100 more times than Notre Dame but had almost 500 fewer yards.
This is an offense that also liked to go fast. Tulsa finished 7th in the country in total plays and 110th in time of possession per game. You can argue the merits of the time of possession stat, but the high number of plays coupled with the low time of possession is a big indicator of team that liked to push the tempo.
So what does that tell us? Texas is certainly going to move fast on offense. That’s a given considering Gilbert’s background. Notre Dame didn’t face a ton of offenses in 2015 that pushed the tempo, but when they did (Clemson and Ohio State) the results weren’t great. How much of that was due to the overall talent level of those teams and how much of it was due to the offensive style is up for debate. But going back to 2014, Notre Dame gave up 43 points to North Carolina, 55 to Arizona State, and 43 to Northwestern – all teams that move quickly on offense but don’t have nearly the level of talent of Notre Dame. This could be an area of concern heading into the season opener.
We also know Texas will run the ball. Gilbert’s Tulsa offense was committed to running the ball despite the mediocre results. The Longhorn’s quarterback situation is a mess, with the starter in the season opener either a true freshman or Texas’s own version of Tommy Rees. Plus, Texas brings back two bruisers at running back – D’Onta Foreman is 6-1, 249lbs. and Chris Warren is 6-2, 252lbs. Gilbert will likely look to them to pound the defense between the tackles, move the chains, and wear out the defense. That, plus the hurry up nature of the offense, can lead to a long day for the Irish front seven if they don’t take Texas out of their comfort zone early in the game.
So that’s it for this macro-level look at the Texas offense. In part two, we’ll open up the playbook and look at how Gilbert’s offense actually operated on the field last season.
Nice work, burgs. Although you didn’t do anything to support my overconfidence for the opener.
A nice reminder on why counting stats (total yards, points) can be misleading because of pace. Tulsa was 2nd nationally in adjusted pace, and it didnt help the offense much (unless they were just that bad before). And if you aren’t good going super fast, then it can put strain on the defense – Tulsa’s D ratings from S&P+ were bad across the board, but even worse in the 3rd and 4th quarters (126th and 114th)
STATS WAR!!!
Seriously, good stuff Mike. Reminds me of a quote from a former ND coach – something something, get to the wrong place faster. I have no idea what to expect from Texas in this game; I can imagine their offense being effective to varying degrees, but I can’t imagine it being vastly improved, especially with Buechele likely to win the QB battle and start his first game.
And I think Texas needs to be very wary of this. I think their first rotation of defensive players should be fine this year, but they are really short on depth. An up-tempo, no time of possession offense is going to put a huge strain on that defense. It will be interesting to see if the Texas offense tries to go that fast all year if the defense can’t keep up.
Agreed. In fact, I’ll be interested to see if tempo makes anything more than an occasional appearance in Game 1 – if they switch whole hog, it could end up looking like Georgia Tech-ND 2007. [shudder]
At the same time Texas has to be wary about going TOO slow. Part of the HUNH offensive philosophy is moving fast and getting the defense out of position or stuck in bad matchups. The playbook is generally pretty thin without a ton of presnap checks and audibles because the offense wants to move quickly. If they need to slow down to protect the defense that can only compound issues on offense and you’re left with something resembling the 2013 ND offense.
GAH
/runs empty backfield sets with Tommy Rees
I was trying to avoid diving into advanced stats because I was trying to pull out what Tulsa did, not necessarily what they were good at. You’re right that their offense put up yards but wasn’t terribly efficient and the defense suffered. Despite the higher number of plays and higher total yardage, Tulsa only scored about 3 more points per game than ND. That’s how you have a top 10ish offense and go 6-7 on the season.
I doubt Texas will be great on offense next season but their defense should be much, much better than anything Tulsa had, so that should help keep them in games.
Makes total sense – in the long-term, I think its a very smart hire and philosophy shift by Strong/Texas that gets accelerated by Baylor’s offseason collapse. They should start to again collect top in-state skill guys (Sumlin’s recent work at A&M also helps) and make up ground on offense quickly, and the defense is in great shape long term.
“Texas’s own version of Tommy Rees”
Bra-vo.
Fascinated by the Gilbert new offense (probably bad for us, tough to fully scout, etc.) versus Texas not having a great line and playing true freshmen (perhaps) at QB and center.
Also, where are we on the change to Sunday night in terms of temperature? Quick look the weather should be high 80’s instead of mid 90’s? If I’m Texas I would have wanted this game at high freaking noon.
Wait. I was told by a trusted source that Texas was entirely made up of cupcakes and that we would have no need to prepare for them.
I am so conflicted and confused.
Yep, just worry about MSU. Think we will get much trolls here? They can be amusing…
In time we surely will. But OFD is kind of a protector now. It’s widely known so the trolls will be attracted to it. In time they’ll find 18Stripes, but for now we’re blissful that they’re unaware.
Burgs! Great to see you here talking X’s and O’x again. The Gilbert offense does present a unique challenge but I agree with everyone else here. They may have a nice play here and there but I can’t see them being cohesive enough to consistently put drives together. I hope that I don’t regret saying that…
Watched the Texas spring game, and the only thing impressive about their offense was that they were running a play every 11.2 seconds.
Wild Bill in the house.
[…] If you’ve been within 10 miles of a Texas fan this offseason, you’ve heard it. “Our offense will be totally different next year! Fast, explosive, and with a new quarterback!” This is mostly true – the Longhorn offense should look far different next year under new coordinator Sterlin Gilbert. Texas ran a slow, run-first offense in 2015. This wasn’t a bad approach – the offensive line fared much better against the run than in pass protection, and passing the ball was a total struggle. Overall though, the Horns were maddeningly inconsistent and without much identity. Inconsistency is still a question, but as Burgs borke down in our film room, with Gilbert at the helm Texas does at least have an identity – play super-fast, spread ‘em out, and attack mismatches. […]