Things were a little nervy early on, then they stabilized in favor of Notre Dame, then things simply fell apart especially on defense. Somehow, the Fighting Irish overcame a brewing Disney movie to survive pesky Florida State in overtime following a Jonathan Doerer dagger from 41 yards out.

Winning is better than losing, if that’s any consolation (it probably won’t be). We’ll see if Florida State shows this same determination and spirit all season long or if this was just a wacky opening weekend college football game that most of the country will forget about. Surely, we won’t forget!

For now, the close victory seemed to expose a lot of problems for Notre Dame.

Stats Package
STAT IRISH NOLES
Score 41 38
Plays 70 74
Total Yards 431 442
Yards Per Play 6.15 5.97
Conversions 7/19 8/18
Completions 26 14
Yards/Pass Attempt 10.4 6.8
Rushes 35 48
Rushing Success 45.1% 50.0%
10+ Yds Rushes 1 8
20+ Yds Passes 8 4
Defense Stuff Rate 31.0% 30.0%

 

*20+ yard passes has been added to the table for 2021.

This game seemed in the bag! It was 38-20 with the students beginning to head for the exits and despite a couple really glaring issues (defense giving up big plays & poor running between the tackles) it looked as though the Irish would cruise to an easy cover and get out of Tallahassee in good spirits. Then, a near epic 4th quarter collapse threatened to destroy Notre Dame’s season before they got on the plane back home.

Offense

QB: B
RB: B
TE: B
OL: D
WR: B+

Let’s get right into the bad because the line struggled mightily run blocking and left Williams and Tyree very little room to maneuver. Both backs were forced to test the outside and Florida State had very little problem flowing to the football to make tackles. The pass blocking was fine overall given FSU’s strengths but this run blocking is potentially an issue that might be worth 2 losses all on its own.

Tyree had a 12-yard run on the 4th series of the game in the 1st quarter and that would be the only 10+ yard run of the game for the Irish. That’s unacceptable. First down running was atrocious constantly leaving the team in bad situations. Tyree’s 12-yard scamper came on 1st down, the other 13 runs from that down accumulated just 39 yards with a long of 6 yards.

Coan’s stats will get a lot of press in his Irish debut and with good cause. However, there will be off days and games where the turnover luck will not go the way of Notre Dame. This is an offense that, at least nationally speaking, had a lot of praise for its running backs and if they’re not going to be able to carry the offense at times there are 5 or 6 teams who could beat the Irish–especially when cold water was thrown all over this new Freeman defense.

I think this is why Coan’s stats don’t quite feel so great as they looked in total, which to be fair, is not his fault. He left a couple deep passes a bit short, threw another into the ground, but suffered a couple massive drops from his top target in crucial moments. Otherwise, Coan looked pretty sharp and in command with some big chunk plays of his own through the air.

Is this sustainable? I almost feel bad for Coan because he played so well but I don’t know if throwing 350 yards per game with every third down–as it seemingly felt against Florida State–resting on his arm without much scrambling ability. That’s why it’s hard to look at his yardage totals in juxtaposition with poor 3rd down conversions.

Nevertheless, you have to like how involved Michael Mayer and Kevin Austin were (13 combined catches for 211 yards and 2 TD) as the main receivers while Kyren Williams (6 catches for 83 yards and 1 TD) continues to be a huge weapon in pass game, too.

Rushing Success

Williams – 7 of 18 (38.8%)
Tyree – 5 of 7 (71.4%)
Coan – 2 of 6 (33.3%)

I wonder what the outcome of this game looks like if Mayer catches those 2 drops and the Irish get that roughing the punter call? Anyway, I think it’s really possible Mayer has a Kyle Pitts-type of season basically averaging 100 yards per game. That’ll probably come down to how much Notre Dame throws (probably a lot after this game!) and if Mayer can avoid double teams with a legit crew of receivers for opponents to worry about.

There should probably be some cautious optimism with the receivers but 23 out of the 35 targets went to running backs or Michael Mayer. Captain Avery Davis not only didn’t have a catch, he wasn’t even targeted once. You have to love the 2 big touchdown catches from Austin and Wilkins but still lots of room for improvement to get the receivers going as a larger part of the offense.

Defense

I told you not to anoint Freeman before he even coach’s one game at Notre Dame, but no one wants to listen! However, let me offer some real talk if I may:

The defense is not that talented. Compared to what we saw from Georgia on Saturday the talent doesn’t seem in the same zip code.

The sum has to be greater than the parts, and that wasn’t the case in the 4th quarter especially. A couple of players (Hamilton/Foskey) had big All-American-type games but there isn’t enough game-wreckers to shut things down with individual talent and when things went south quickly the unit as a whole look disheveled.

The tackling was not good for most of the game. I’ll chalk that up to being too aggressive, being too hyped, and getting tired in the first game in warm weather. We’ll see if it improves soon.

One possible explanation for staying in a 3-man front for so long late in the game is lack of depth up front. There’s really no pass-rusher to spell Foskey’s role and MTA really doesn’t have a competent backup yet. Freeman is very aggressive and was probably expecting more havoc even when Florida State was finding success on the ground.

A lot of hope is pinned on the linebackers and they did not play very well at all. I think this group and the defense as a whole really misses Liufau more than we expected. And we all expected it to be a blow.

DL: B
LB: D
DB: B-

If you want to walk back from the ledge, here’s something to chew on:

When the score was 38-20 in Florida State’s possession that spilled over into the 4th quarter the Seminoles rushing success was sitting at a 17.6% with only 3 successful runs! Then they threw 2 straight interceptions! Did the Irish just switch off thinking the game was over?? You could’ve made a case with one quarter remaining it was a very solid debut for Freeman.

Up until Florida State’s 4th scoring drive they’d accumulated 169 of their 205 yards on just 3 plays, including the long touchdown run, nice touchdown pass, and a 20-yard run on a short field after a bad Bramblett punt. The vast majority of the Seminoles’ plays were going very, very poorly until the 4th quarter.

Unfortunately, Florida State ended the game squeezing in 18 successful runs over their final 41 offensive snaps to nearly spring the upset. We talked about some reasoning around the downturn but the lack of adjustments and answers is a troubling debut for Freeman. One or two series before adjusting maybe makes sense, but waiting until after the 3rd with the game nearly lost is curious to say the least.

Stuffs vs. FSU

Foskey – 5.5
Ademilola, Jay – 2.5
Hart – 2
Griffith – 2
Bertrand – 1.5
Ademilola, Jus – 1.5
White – 1
Hinish – 1
Brown – 1
Lacey – 1
Mills – 1
Pryor – 1
MTA – 0.5
Hamilton – 0.5

I thought the line played pretty well, all things considered. They seemed to run out of gas late but 13 stuffs from the unit is extremely encouraging. Even more since MTA (1 assisted tackle) had a very quiet night, you have to figure his performance will improve as he gets more comfortable on the edge.

The linebackers, woof. They really struggled cleaning up a lot of running plays and were not disruptive enough given the importance of their aggression in the Freeman system. Bertrand led the team with 11 tackles but I don’t remember him making a big impact. Drew White had a bad game for his standards. Shayne Simon got in the game and not on the box score again. The Rovers, especially Kiser, were shockingly quiet.

25 tackles, 3.5 stuffs, and zero tackles for loss or sacks from the linebackers can’t happen against any decent opponent.

The secondary played about to expectations, if we’re being honest. Hamilton’s two interceptions were highlight reels for the season, the Lewis interception was a great play, and there were some positive things from young players like Cam Hart. Of course, Florida State’s 2 biggest plays from scrimmage resulted in touchdowns from the non-Kyle Hamitlon safeties unable to make a play, so that’s not good. Although, take away Travis’ long touchdown pass and Florida State went 13 of 25 for 118 yards and a paltry 4.72 yards per attempt.

Final Thoughts

When Milton was inserted into the game I thought he’d hand off and then go back to the sidelines. The fact that he stayed in the game to almost complete the upset is insane. Does anyone feel oddly comforted by the fact that this made for the movie theater story and the ghost of Bobby Bowden haunting Doak didn’t work out in the end? There were some unlucky moments in the game for Notre Dame, no doubt. I feel fortunate that the 3rd down botched snap with FSU driving to win the game ended up derailing their comeback and killing off some momentum. Plus, their missed field goal in overtime.

So, what does Florida State do now with Milton? Is he healthy enough to play a whole game? It’s one of the more weird situations I’ve ever seen. I think you have to go back to Travis at least initially right?

The Irish killed their momentum in the 1st half with the Mayer drop and botched snap of their own on consecutive 3rd downs across back-to-back drives. The game was completely in control and all of a sudden Florida State led 14-7.

The lack of a 15-yard penalty on Bramblett with Notre Dame leading by 10 points was egregious. There was 10:19 remaining in the game, do we think the Irish could’ve salted the game away though?

To that point, the offense in the 4th quarter onward was terrible finishing with 2 punts, the Hail Mary interception before regulation ended and absolutely nothing in overtime. This finish brought us 40 yards on 18 plays with the game on the line, not good. All 4 runs on 1st down on those series were not successful.

Milton 100% fumbled prior to Florida State’s game-tying fumble. He clutched the ball back into his body and his non-throwing hand knocked the ball out of his throwing hand. All is well that ends well, I suppose.

You have to hand it to Jonathan Doerer for calmly winning the game and getting the game ball in the locker room. That’s a heck of a start for someone coming off a shaky 2020.

I still maintain that Coan has a weird arm. His throwing motion is pretty long and he takes a while to release the ball. For a bigger quarterback his arm also isn’t as strong as you’d think. It’s just weird, it’s almost like he’s trying not to throw too hard to maintain accuracy.

Nearly a third of every play for both team’s being a stuff and yet they combined for 79 points. It’s one of the more crazy stat lines I’ve seen in a while.

Let’s hope the Blake Fisher knee sprain isn’t too serious. This game on the road in a tough environment really showed how the Irish only have 1 offensive lineman who has proven his worth while wearing a gold helmet.

I’d rather Kyren Williams not return punts. It’s such a high-risk for injury with little pay off. Plus, let’s just save his reps and body please.

Anyone going to automatically take the points against a better-than-you-think Toledo coming to town with Notre Dame coming off a mentally draining short week? The Irish have generally done pretty well in these spots, especially since 2017, but the college football gods are probably already chuckling at our expense if it’s a tight game, at least for a while.