It wasn’t that long ago that Georgia lurked as a talented but flawed program. Scanning their roster each year they always had numerous high-end NFL talent on both sides of the ball and yet by season’s end there was usually a bitter taste of disappointment. Mark Richt did well winning 145 games across 15 seasons in Athens before being fired after 2015 but the Dawgs couldn’t win their conference and only won the SEC East three times over his final 10 seasons.
Enter, Kirby Smart. Following a mediocre first season in 2016 (8-5, against a weak schedule no less) the Bulldogs have quickly zoomed into the top of the college football atmosphere. Beginning with their Liberty Bowl win to conclude 2016, Georgia has gone 28-5 (.848) with all 5 defeats coming to Top 10 opponents.
Notre Dame (+14.5) at Georgia
Sanford Stadium
Athens, Georgia
Date: Saturday, September 21, 2019
Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: CBS
Still, with their 2017 conference title and Rose Bowl playoff semi-final victory (1 of only 5 teams with a playoff win) still fresh in the trophy case the Dawgs remain a program still knocking on the door to an elusive National Championship. Their early schedule sets up nicely until November when Florida, Auburn, and Texas A&M pack themselves into the final month. Georgia will hope to make the SEC Championship Game for the third straight season but long before that the Dawgs are welcoming the Fighting Irish to Athens for the first time ever.
Georgia’s Offense
There are few weaknesses for the SP+ No. 3 offense in the country currently averaging 8.7 yards per play so far against an admittedly soft schedule. The receiver situation was supposed to be shaky after numerous personnel losses but even that looks shored up after 3 games.
Georgia welcomed our old friend Demetris Robertson back last year as a transfer from California and while he’s been banged up he could see an increased role against Notre Dame. The Dawgs also have Miami transfer Lawrence Cager in mix, too. However, it’s the presence of two sensational freshmen in George Pickens and Dominick Blaylock (combined 16 receptions for 322 yards this season) who have helped stabilize this position and give quarterback Jake Fromm a nice building block in the passing game.
Pickens–a five-star recruit and No. 4 wideout in the 2019 class–was stolen from under the nose of Nick Saban as the top recruit in the state of Alabama and looks like a future top NFL Draft pick.
You may have heard of Georgia’s run game? The Dawgs offensive line took a hit early this year when 2018 freshman All-American right tackle Isaiah Wilson went down with injury. They’ve since plugged in former 5-star recruit and current sophomore Jamaree Salyer in his place.
The real noise for Georgia comes on the left side where tackle Andrew Thomas and guard Solomon Kindley are considered among the best players in the country at their respective positions. This is a deep, experienced, and talented offensive line that is averaging just under 6’5″ and nearly 326 pounds. By any measure this is the largest offensive line Notre Dame has ever faced in school history.
Georgia’s backfield features senior journeyman Brian Herrien, sophomore James Cook (little brother of the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook) and true freshman Kenny McIntosh (younger brother of former Irish back Deon McIntosh) in limited roles but will butter its bread with doses from redshirt freshman Zamir White (the top back from the 2018 class) and especially junior D’Andre Swift. The latter broke off a long run against the Irish back in 2017 and has now been given the keys to the Dawgs’ run game. Depending on who you ask, Swift may be the top running back in the country which isn’t unusual for a Georgia player.
When we last saw quarterback Jake Fromm he was making his first career start in South Bend. Admittedly, that night he was fairly average throwing for 141 yards on 29 attempts in a game that has been his 2nd worst passer rating of his career. At the time, Fromm was taking over for the injured Jacob Eason and had all-world recruit Justin Fields coming in behind him.
Fromm held on to the job as Eason transferred to Washington and Fields took off for Columbus. While still operating as more of a game-manager, Fromm was excellent last year finishing with the 5th best passer rating in the country.
Georgia’s Defense
This has the look and feel of a bit of a transition defense for the Dawgs as they’ve lost significant personnel since the last meeting with Notre Dame two years ago and are in the process of plugging in a lot of talent from the loaded No. 1 national 2018 recruiting class.
If there’s a weakness, comparatively speaking, this should be a less scary front seven than back in 2017.
Jordan Davis is a hulking true sophomore “War Daddy” nose tackle with a lot of promise. Tackle Tyler Clark is a returning senior starter who is really solid. David Marshall is a bit of a journeyman at defensive end without a ton of production over his career, although other bodies will rotate in the mix.
Inside linebacker and 5th-year senior Tae Crowder has moved up to a full-time starter role from last year and pairs well with junior Monty Rice in the middle. The Dawgs have favored using #1 JUCO transfer Jermaine Johnson in their SAM linebacker role while also unleashing redshirt freshman JACK linebacker Azeez Ojulari as a pass-rusher.
The secondary should be very good led by former 5-star recruit junior safety Richard LeCounte and former 5-star recruit sophomore corner Tyson Campbell. I’m not sure this will be a fearsome pass-rushing defense that is going to harass Ian Book all game long but they look like a unit that is going to contain the run and make it difficult for Notre Dame to move the ball consistently through the air. Georgia is arguably missing a first-team All-American type of talent like Roquan Smith but has excellent depth across the board.
Georgia has only allowed over 200 yards rushing once over their last 18 games, so getting to 150 yards on the ground would be a nice day at the office for the Irish.
Prediction
With Vegas clearly not believing in the Irish this weekend and most college football fans picking Georgia to win big it’s caused a reaction in our circles of questioning if the Dawgs really are that good. Are they deserving to be such large favorites? Are the Irish being overlooked?
Texas A&M was a 17.5 point underdog at Clemson in a comparable SP+ matchup earlier in the season so maybe this line with Georgia isn’t that crazy?
Certainly, the weight of history is bearing down on Notre Dame this weekend. If we presume that Georgia will finish inside the AP top 5 by the end of the season this would be one of the biggest regular season wins in the Fighting Irish record books. Lou Holtz played in 3 of these road games and lost all 3 by an average margin of 21 points. Ara Parseghian played in 4 of these games and went win-less with a couple ties.
It hasn’t been since 1957–when unranked Notre Dame stopped Oklahoma’s NCAA-record winning streak with a stunning 7-0 victory in Norman–that the Irish have defeated an end-of-year Top 5 team on the road. That’s 27 opportunities over the last 61 years, no wins, and currently a 21-game losing streak. Granted, it’s tough for a team to lose to you and then still finish in the top five but those are the numbers.
If you’re looking for the last road win over a top 5 team at game time who still finished strong you have to go back 12 opportunities ago when the Irish toppled No. 2 Michigan who would then finish No. 7 overall. The previous year against USC (then No. 2, finished No. 7) and Pitt from 1982 (then No. 1, finished No. 10) are the only times Notre Dame has won these big road games in my lifetime.
If there’s a silver lining in that history, while Brian Kelly is 0-4 in such road games against final Top 5 teams, 3 of those losses came by a combined 8(!) points so they’ve been close before (and frankly won the 2014 FSU game). The outlier being that no-good loss at USC to finish the 2016 regular season. That feels like ages ago for Clay Helton who has lost 9 out of his last 16 games, but I digress.
What I’ve found while previewing these big games is that fans aren’t really interested much in breakdowns between the teams, which weaknesses can be exploited, and finding any trade secrets as to how their team can win. By now, I’m sure if you’re reading this you’ve read numerous other previews telling you largely the same story.
No, in these big games we want validation before kickoff. We want to hear that Notre Dame can absolutely win this game. We want to hear that while the Irish have a reputation for falling flat on the big stage so does Georgia (20-point loss to LSU last year and a 33-point loss to Auburn in 2017 for recent examples) and things could break Notre Dame’s way.
Well, the Irish can absolutely win this game, no need to get too defensive about it.
Georgia hasn’t been this consistently great for a long time.
Questioning Georgia makes sense to me in that every football season is a brand new story to be written. The Dawgs (and the Irish for that matter) aren’t tested in 2019 and these teams will collide this Saturday, scattering their destinies in opposite directions.
Weak schedules for both programs aside, the macro-level story on Georgia surely isn’t good news for Notre Dame. The major problem is that Georgia’s SP+ trajectory is currently pushing into their best ever era, their recruiting has followed suit in recent years, while the Irish have been trailing solidly in both categories.
Anything can happen in one game but for Georgia to back slide from their perch as a top 5 program would take circumstances unforeseen to date with top-notch recruiting and a very good quarterback running their offense.
One thing I keep coming back to is that Georgia’s defense might not be quite as good as the 2017 matchup and Notre Dame’s offense could conceivably be better. Two years ago, the Irish had a shot at winning with only 265 total yards to their name and a Chip Long-era low 3.44 yards per play average. Can’t they do better with a competent (or better) passing game?
Of course, one could swing things around and say Notre Dame’s defense isn’t as good but then I look back and 2017 featured Jay Hayes, Jonathan Bonner, Nyles Morgan, Greer Martini, Nick Coleman, and Nick Watkins as starters with a few others (Daelin Hayes, Jalen Elliott, MTA, Hinish) who are now 2 years older and much better.
That is to say, I like this currently flawed but talented 2019 defense and their trajectory to improve. Specifically for this weekend I think it’s largely about how better Jake Fromm has gotten because I’m hopeful in a gameplan that will slow down the Georgia rushing attack enough to keep their offense in check. Notre Dame absolutely has to try and take away the run and dare Fromm to beat them without a ton of experience in quarterback-to-receiver connections.
I wish I felt better about Notre Dame’s offense. This is probably weird to an outsider as the Irish are coming off their most points and yards per play in forever and Ian Book is 5th nationally in passer rating. Just looking at the raw stats it really seems like Book has taken the next step into the room adjoining the elite quarterbacks and that was key No. 1 to Notre Dame feeling confident about winning this game. I knew that, you knew that, and everyone else knew that.
Of course, things haven’t exactly played out like that in real time.
SP+ has the Irish offense at 7th right now and on Saturday night I’m betting it feels more like the 37th best offense. I don’t think Notre Dame can match Georgia’s offensive weapons and the game hinges on Ian Book delivering a tremendous performance in one of 2019’s biggest national stages. That would be an amazing statement to make for the Irish quarterback but too much to put on his shoulders. There just aren’t other credible options to work with as Notre Dame invades Sanford Stadium.
I was really starting to feel good there during the “Prediction” section . . .
. . . and then you had to go and predict the score.
On the plane waiting to takeoff to Atlanta. Fully expect to rush the field and tear down the goalposts tomorrow night.
I read where McGlinchey said in 2017 NDs Oline thought they would steamroll Ga. After 2 series, Ga. had changed their thinking. We need a game like Ga. had with Hershel against us. Ga. dominates but f’s up enough to keep us in the game and despite the stats ND pulls it out. Of course, that would just be ND getting “lucky”, right ?
I don’t see that happening. Our weaknesses play right into Georgia’s strengths. Therefore, I doubt we make Fromm beat us. I don’t think it’s quite as close as E thinks. 37 – 17 Dawgs.
To your first point, I kind of hope it’s Georgia that gets a bit sloppy and expects an easy game- especially with the media focus that ND are frauds against big time teams, don’t belong on the big stage, blah blah blah.
It’s a long shot but it would be a great advantage if maybe they’re not mentally as sharp or prepared as they should be.
That said, I’m dreading that o-line against the front 7 ND defense. And the difference of UGA’s RBs compared to the healthy bodies ND will bring would be laughable if it weren’t so sad.
But I’ll hold off blind hope that somehow a magical mix of gameplan and execution and UGA won’t have their best day will all coincide.
Please, please, please delete those ridiculous claimed national titles from the graphic. Years after Alabama began claiming dubious titles, UGa decided to get in on the game in the late 80s and claimed years like 1942 (Ohio State) and 1946 (hmmm, i wonder who the consensus Champ was that year). Good grief,
Technically if they are claiming them they are claiming them regardless of their validity. But, your beef is with Bill C.
This seems like a game where ND absolutely have to sell out to stop the run. The problem is, Fromm is absolutely a good enough QB to make a defense focused on the run pay. I put our chances around 20%, which is to say, I think this will be a game worth forgetting.
I’m thinking if we sell out to stop the run and actually succeed in stopping it then a lot of it comes down to whether our DE’s can play up to the hype. The explanation I’ve read for the underwhelming (statistically) performance of the starting DE’s so far is short drops (and Louisville optioning off of them). If Fromm can drop deep and/or take his time then he’ll complete downfield passes even if the secondary plays relatively well and our goose will be cooked.
Also, I’m really tired of the negativity about this game from ND fans who can’t stop talking about how bad we’ll get beat. Maybe don’t bother watching then. Look at the score Sunday morning and pat yourself on the back for knowing how bad we are.
“By now, I’m sure if you’re reading this you’ve read numerous other previews telling you largely the same story.”
Wrong. I only read 18S!
“No, in these big games we want validation before kickoff. We want to hear that Notre Dame can absolutely win this game.”
I do not want either of these things, after the Alabama & Miami games. I want to hear how much better [Local Sports Team] is than ND. I don’t like having confidence and then getting it fugging CRUSHED minutes into a game. I want to enjoy a good football game on Saturday evening, even if ND loses. I’d rather have a prediction of ND losing a game, get my head straight and then not have the whole game make me mad. All that being said, ND will win by 400. #14-0
Side note, I will be traveling to Denver for work things and arrive shortly before kickoff. Anyone have Denver/Colorado beer recommendations (Lower ABVs)?
I live in Fort Collins. Crooked Stave has great beers and you should be able to find em cuz they’re Denver based. Funkwerks out of FoCo has some stellar sours and Saisons that have low to mid-level ABVs but might be a little harder to find.
You won’t be starving (thirsty?) for options, you’re in a spiritual home of US craft brewing. Bristol Brewing products are good (Laughing Lab, Beehive) and Red Leg Brewing “Howitzer” (Amber)… just dropping a few Colorado Springs names you may find. Don’t be fooled by “Colorado Native” (Coors). Enjoy. Weather’s going to be nice this weekend.
Fully aware of Denver’s beer history….just mostly a decision paralysis for me
I think we can win this game. It is not quite threading the eye of a needle, but it will require a few things to break our way. We will need to win the turnover battle. We need to win the explosive play battle. I think both teams will get some, we just need a couple more.
While I don’t usually care much about ball control, given the size of the Georgia OL, this is a game where we need to use up some clock to protect our DL.
Beyond Book, I think the critical players for us production wise are Kyren Williams and Javon McKinley. McKinley has to play big so that Finke can remain in the slot. He is just not effective outside. Williams is a better receiver than Jones or Smith and at least as good as Jones as getting 5 yards when there is nothing there. All the RBs need to make the first guy miss, Williams seems the best at it.
“this is a game where we need to use up some clock to protect our DL.”
So we can chalk up the 3rd &1’s up the middle getting stuffed just an excuse to use up an extra down & tire out the UGA defense?
Is Book the anti-Brady Quinn of QB sneaks? The dude doesn’t seem to get any drive and just falls forward. My kingdom for an Asaph Schwapp.
No, those are what needs to be converted more often.
Does anybody else feel like we’re in the reverse role for the 2017 Miami game? We had been rolling through good teams while Miami was struggling with mediocre ones. All of the advanced stats favored us. Granted, road/home location makes a difference, but the general consensus was that the Irish were a superior team. Looking at the game results, I couldn’t see a path for Miami to beat us.
While Georgia won’t look shell shocked because of a hostile crowd, there is a chance they won’t be ready for the talent level or dare I say, team speed?? Everyone is telling them they should win, but it’s a been a minute since they’ve been in a big game and complacency could be setting in.
While I hate to equivocate the Irish with Miami, if it means surprising the heck out of the Bulldogs and getting a big lead, I’ll take it.
ND 27
UGA 23
That Georgia RB room is insane. Our best RB would be 5th string, maybe 6th depending on how good Kenny McIntosh is.