The 2017 NFL Draft is officially in the books and it was a humbling weekend for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who had to experience one more aftershock from a poor football season and a relatively small group of prospects eager to hear their names called. In all, just 2 players ended up being selected.
New Homes
DeShone Kizer, 20th pick of the 2nd Round, 52nd Overall, Cleveland Browns
Isaac Rochell, 7th pick of the 7th Round, 225th Overall, San Diego Chargers
James Onwualu, UDFA, San Diego Chargers
Jarron Jones UDFA, New York Giants
Cole Luke UDFA, Carolina Panthers
In the end, Kizer suffers the indignity of a small fall in the Draft and being selected by the Browns–the latter fate so much more depressing. The loss of money probably isn’t that big of a deal–there are worse things in the world than automatically making a couple million in your early twenties–but Cleveland will surround Kizer (at the moment) with perhaps the worst offense in the league.
The Browns didn’t exactly supplement the offense in the Draft going with defenders in 4 of their first 6 picks, while reaching a bit for Miami tight end David Njoku in the bottom of the first. The only other offensive playmaker picked was NC State running back Matt Dayes late in the 7th round.
Cleveland does have an enormous amount of cap space which should be well over $50 million following the signing of their rookies. They’ll also have to work out the situation with Brock Osweiler ($16 million cap hit) and both Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan in the quarterback carousel.
All three of those quarterbacks received snaps in the NFL last year so there seems like there’s a path whereby Kizer can sit the whole year. However, there’s plenty of other scenarios leading to Kizer starting in September and really struggling to carry the offense.
DeShone Kizer projected to sign a $4.9 million deal with a $1.7 million signing bonus. #ClevelandBrowns #NFLDraft
— 18 Stripes (@18stripes) April 29, 2017
Rochell fell to a pretty good situation with the Chargers where Corey Liuget is an established starter but the depth chart is pretty wide open behind him. You don’t usually say this about a 7th round pick but Rochell has a pretty good shot of making the roster for 2017.
Remember to not get too excited about the undrafted free agents. Players like Romeo Okwara are heavily the exception when making rosters. The same goes even more so for camp invites in the coming months.
Declared Early, Undrafted
As expected, Irish running back Tarean Folston was not selected in the Draft after declining his fifth-year of eligibility in South Bend. As of Sunday evening he has not signed a free agent deal with a team yet.
A handful of high profile college players went undrafted after declaring early:
KD Cannon, WR, Baylor – Among the best playmakers for the Bears since his first step on campus. Quite skinny at 180 pounds but left Baylor with 195 catches and 3,113 receiving yards for his career. He signed a UDFA deal with San Francisco.
Jerod Evans, QB, Virginia Tech – Came to Blacksburg from JUCO and played one pretty good season for the Hokies. Leaving so quickly wasn’t a stunner but a bit of a surprise.
Damien Mama, OG, USC – Perpetually overweight with the Trojans but plenty of experience since arriving in Los Angeles. The top guard from the 2014 class got skipped over in the Draft and signed a UDFA deal with Kansas City.
Travis Rudolph, WR, Florida State – A former top 100 recruit who played at a blue-blood program and led the Seminoles in receiving each of the last two seasons. He signed a deal with the New York Giants.
Should Kizer Have Stayed?
The projection of quarterback classes coming into the NFL often reminds me of trying to predict college football strength of schedules. Quite often, the opposite comes true. One of the selling points for Kizer leaving early was the much stronger 2018 Draft class. Yet, 3 quarterbacks went in the top 12 selections for 2017 (and two of those guys were barely in the picture even during the middle of last fall) then Kizer waited 40 picks before he was the next signal caller off the board.
Had Kizer stayed at Notre Dame here’s who he would’ve competed with in next year’s Draft:
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State – The stats and size are going to be there for 1st round potential.
Luke Falk, Washington State – A poor man’s Patrick Mahomes, perhaps? Could be tough to move into the 1st round.
Riley Ferguson, Memphis – Should finish with a nice two-year career with the Tigers. A little short and skinny to be an elite prospect.
Josh Rosen, UCLA – The golden boy returns from injury and is expected to be a Top 5 pick. I wouldn’t completely rule out a Christian Hackenberg-esque slide, though.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Way too short and not polished enough as a passer.
Lamar Jackson, Louisville – The next Michael Vick? Athleticism alone could make him a 1st round pick.
Trace McSorley, Penn State – Probably far too short to be a top pick at the QB position.
Jake Browning, Washington – Lack of arm strength is going to be a huge negative. Combined with not great atleticism his ceiling isn’t very high.
Sam Darnold, USC – In the early mock drafts he’s the No. 1 overall pick in most. This battered Notre Dame fan isn’t completely convinced he’ll leave after 2 years of starting but let’s hope.
Jarrett Stidham, Auburn – One of the best skill-sets for someone that will be eligibile but needs a big year after transferring from Baylor.
Josh Allen, Wyoming – A very mock draft-y hype selection right now with some 1st round love. I can’t say I’ve seen him play yet but his highlights show a pretty athletic, big player. He did have a crappy completion percentage and threw 15 interceptions so the love is kind of hard to understand for an outsider such as myself.
Wilton Speight, Michigan – Size and not much else. Kind of a weird throwing motion but should get a boost from being a Harbaugh tutor.
Logan Woodside, Toledo – The second highest rated quarterback in the country last year. A little on the smaller size but a decent sleeper in the upcoming Draft.
Mike White, Western Kentucky – The third highest rated quarterback in the country last year. Didn’t look great in 2014 at USF, transferred, and looked quite good last year. Size won’t be an issue and he gets to work with Mike Sanford this year.
I found myself agreeing with Mel Kiper shortly after Kizer was picked by the Browns. He said (paraphrasing) you can’t come into the draft with little momentum, a poor season for your team, not a ton of experience, and expect to be one of the top quarterbacks taken. In that sense, it feels like a bad decision for Kizer.
Still, Kizer went from completely off the radar to a second round pick within 2 years. The Heisman love and talk about being the top quarterback off the board always felt like a bit much and in many ways polluted our expectations for someone far too reliant (at the pro scouting level) on the vagueness of potential. Yet, he was pretty close to maxing out his stock relative to his rather humbling beginnings.
Would anyone guarantee Kizer could move up to the 2nd or 3rd quarterback in 2018 (skeptics will point out Kelly’s track record of course) or go higher than 52nd overall? That’s a tough sell but you have to think Kizer might want a do-over if it means being selected by someone other than the Browns.
2018 NFL Draft for Notre Dame
Next spring should be a much better Draft for the Irish, especially at the top of the boards. Right now, there are 6 players who I’d classify as being on the radar for going in the top third of the Draft:
Mike McGlinchey, OT
Quenton Nelson, OG
Nyles Morgan, LB
Josh Adams, RB
Equanimeous St. Brown, WR
Alize Mack, TE
The tackle crop isn’t supposed to be anything special which has led McGlinchey to be in every 1st round mock draft I’ve seen so far. And usually the top tackle off the board. Guard is a little tougher to go high in the Draft but Nelson is in many 1st rounds, as well. At worst, he’s a late 2nd round pick. He’s definitely going higher than former Notre Dame guard Chris Watt who went 89th overall.
Thirteen linebackers were selected within the top 100 picks this past weekend and I think Nyles Morgan can work his way into that mix for 2018. With a big season on the field he should move up into a Round 3 prospect.
Adams could be really interesting with another good season. You never know where running backs will land–does Adams have a ceiling of 3rd round? Is he comfortably a 5th round pick?
I’d imagine ESB will find it difficult to return to school with the allure of a decent draft grade. A full 13 receivers went in the first 3 rounds which kind of puts him in the same boat as Nyles Morgan where there’s plenty of opportunity to get a nice rookie contract and decent draft slot.
Mack may be Notre Dame fans’ little secret right now and no one would be surprised if he’s a second round pick, or even a first round selection, should he live up to his potential. If he’s able to catch 50 balls this fall he’s probably gone. Five tight ends went in the first 45 picks this weekend, including 3 in the first round. I have good odds Mack is in the discussion for that type of pick next spring.
You’d be right to put Brandon Wimbush up on that list. However, I’m betting on him staying for a few reasons. One, the talk of a strong QB class should have him mentally figuring he’s coming back. Two, one year of starting isn’t enough experience for just about every quarterback. Three, he seems a little more grounded compared to his predecessors and willing to stick around a college campus. Then again, coaching upheaval could bring chaos into his decision making process.
It’s kind of crazy that the incredible 2013 recruiting class will probably end up with only 4 guys drafted, assuming McGlinchey goes, the same amount as the 2012 class of only like 12 guys. (well 5 if you count Vanderdoes).
I was really hoping the Pats would sign Onwualu to a UDFA contract. He would be a perfect replacement for Matthew Slater (although they’ve got a few other potential replacements). Of this whole class, it wouldn’t surprise me if he sticks around the league the longest, while possibly never actually starting a game on O or D. He just seems to have the work ethic and mentality to do whatever a coach asks to help the team.
“(well 5 if you count Vanderdoes).”
I Vanderdon’t.
Do you know if Vanderdoes had any eligibility left? He should have stayed if he did.
Mack? What am I missing? Did he get married?
Officially took his step-father’s name this spring.
Ahhh…that’s way less interesting
It’ll be hard not to call him by his maiden name for a while.
Worst of all possible worlds for Kizer. Fall in the draft, still end up on the Browns. Likely going to get to start relatively soon with no talent around him. Hopefully, it will play out better for him than Brady Quinn. Then again, the Browns have not had a decent QB since their reincarnation.
Cleveland was the best landing spot for Kizer in my opinion. I think Hue Jackson is one of the better QB coaches in the league. His last year in Cincy he had Andy Dalton playing extremely well.
Adams’ knee will scare teams some.
Probably, right.
I still think it’s the right decision for Kizer to enter the draft. I thought I read somewhere he got a 1st round grade from the draft advisory board. Speaking of, that seems a little reckless for them to potentially be going off incorrect information (Especially on a volatile position like QB where if a player isn’t drafted top 10 he could slide very easily to 40-60). Seems like a big risk for them to call a guy a 1st rounder, and he last deep into the 2nd.
But, so it goes I suppose in the process. Kizer had a fairly rough combine and wasn’t impressive at the pro day and his interviews seemed to scare more off with the infamous “size of Cam, mind of Brady” line that became the headline. Kizer probably needed a great draft process but he had a fairly underwhelming one, so his stock slid as a result.
Regardless, he did become a millionaire this weekend and he has the Jordan endorsement too which I assume is fairly lucrative. I’m a pretty risk adverse person, who knows what happens at ND this year, maybe he gets hurt, maybe he puts out more tape for people to pick apart with what he should be doing better, so why not make the jump when it’s there. Shame he ended up on the Browns though.
I agree. Get money, get paid.
Also, to reiterate a (I think underappreciated) point: if he turns out to be a good pro, going in the 2nd round is probably better for him than being a 1st rounder (certainly better than being in the second half of the first round), because he gets to his second (read: non-rookie scale) contract faster this way.
You mention something so important: “if he turns out to be a good pro.”
So many people think it is automatically a good idea for all these kids to go pro early “so they can get their second contract sooner.” And people blame the CBA for it being beneficial to declare as early as possible. However, to me it should tell kids to stay in school longer, because the new pay scale means teams want as many players on rookie contracts as possible, so if you aren’t a good pro, like the vast majority of draftees, why would someone give you a second contract when they could draft someone. And to a lesser extent it seems like the league is younger in younger, so maybe you get a second contract, but not a third, making a college education more important as life after football comes sooner.
In theory, it seems like one more year of college would make you a better pro for your first 4 years, therefore giving you a much better chance at a decent 2nd contract. I would be really curious to see some numbers on things like what % of players get that second contract by round (obviously if you are first round, go out ASAP), what those values are, and how those numbers differ (if they do) by how many years in college.
I used to think the more traditional way, but then I was reminded ofl Troy Niklas’s hugely underwhelming career. Will he be in the league after this year? Is someone going to pay him anything for averaging 2 stars, 3 catches, and 25 yds a year? Even if he didn’t get drafted higher, I have to think an extra year of actually playing TE in college might have really helped. If you are drafted on potential in the NFL, you better reach that potential quickly.
It certainly is an interesting debate and discussion to think about, I would love to see that data as well. But I suppose a lot depends on the individual player, position and as well as more variables like what team drafts him.
Anecdotally, take a guy like Blake Bortles, similar size/potential of Kizer with similar college stats (though BB’s were a little better, but with less of a level of competition). Bortles hasn’t been really impressive as a starter but Jacksonville just picked up his $19 million option for next year. Kizer won’t be quite in that boat since he wasn’t a 1st round pick, just thinking along the lines that a guy can come out early, not exactly set the world on fire and still cash in big time anyways.
As far as Niklas, I’m not sure how it would have broken out if he chose differently. I highly doubt being in the 2014 ND team boosts his draft stock much more than where he actually went (52nd overall, ironically the same as Kizer went), but would staying a year have better prepared Niklas? Hard to say no with the underwhelming NFL career he’s had, but with his injury history, he would probably be risking a lot to go through another college season.
I think my default would be like ndhs said- get paid as soon as you can. If you have a big year in college you might get a better first contract but if you have a big year in the pros you’ll get that big second contract before long. All evens out probably, assuming the player produces. The difference would be taking on the risk that things go south too soon that could kill chances to make an NFL roster. I would think it’d be smarter to advance to the pro ranks quicker, for most cases.
To your “if you have a big year in the pros” comment. The odds are significantly stacked against that for anyone outside of the top of the draft. That is kind of my whole reasoning. A ridiculously small percentage of people will get a big second contract, to the point it really shouldn’t even be a consideration. The average NFL career (according to SI/WFJ) is less than 3 years. Not one positions averages over 4 years. What players should be trying to do is just make sure they can play in the NFL for as long as possible, and consider what gives them the best chance to get ANY 2nd contract. Bortles was the third overall pick. Guys who go that high are already good enough that another year in college probably won’t help their long term development. They aren’t likely to improve their draft stock or their actual ability. My point isn’t really aimed at 1st rounders.. For Troy specifically. He had played TE in college for 2 years, so he is a unique case, probably an outlier that would have benefited much more from an extra year than the average player. Does that mean he goes higher than mid/late 2nd round if he comes back, probably not, but I would have to think it would have given him at least a slightly better chance to help with his next contract. His 2nd round contract was for $4mil. If he got injured as a SR and dropped to round 4, he would have made $2.8mm. I don’t think he really could have improved his draft stock with another year. So is the risk of dropping $1.2 mil on your first salary (and time value loss of the $1.6mm he made in 2014) worth whatever increase in likelihood of making more in the long run. If I were him, or anyone getting a 2nd round draft grade, probably even 3rd, I would 100% have gone pro. Doesn’t mean it would have been the best long term financial decision. I am not convinced my theory is correct, and won’t be convinced until someone actually produces numbers (which won’t have enough of a sample size for a number of years if someone ever bothers). But I see so many kids leave college early, either not get drafted, or get drafted but they aren’t anywhere near ready for the NFL. They get left in the dust because while people say to “get paid while you’re developing,” I think a lot of times these non-ready kids aren’t given nearly the coaching that the starters are. A draftable college player is guaranteed to have a coach try to make him better. In the NFL there isn’t a ton of incentive to really coach up bottom of the roster players. High picks may get longer to develop and should get more coaching, but even 2nd round picks frequently get about 1 year to show they can be the long term answer. So while I may be… Read more »
This was a great discussion. Good points from everyone. I don’t think anyone mentioned it, but another factor in that “average career is under 3 years” factoid is that the NFL pension kicks in after three years. There is an incentive for management to boot every non-superstar they can before that kicks in.
I’m a dinosaur, but I think the decision about stay/go should also hinge on where you go to school. Not solely the academic angle, but also the depth of the fanbase. A guy who contributes to a program and graduates at a school like Alabama, OSU, Notre Dame, michigan, etc has a really good shot at securing a good job even if NFL football doesn’t work out. Alums and fans see that resume and they are going to want to give the guy a shot. Does anyone doubt that AJ McCarron is going to have some good opportunities when the NFL thing is over? If it’s a place without a great football tradition or fanbase (I don’t know, Mizzou? Pitt?) maybe it is an easier call to go early.
Kizer should have stayed but I get having to do what’s best your family. I just hate that I have to root against him for two games a year because he was one of my favorite Irish players. Had he came back, got in better shape, he could have been a top 10-15 pick if not higher. I truly believe that. The product he put on the field last year wasn’t close to being his best. I think CLE got a steal in round 2.
I was a little shocked that Jarron Jones wasn’t drafted. The Florida State game alone would have made me take a late flyer on him. If he puts it all together he could find a home this fall with the NYG.
Hopefully 2018 is a much stronger draft for Notre Dame. Just about every mock has the left side of our OL as the first T and first G taken. Q and McGlinchey will need to play better than what they showed during the spring game. I know it’s just the spring game but I was a little disappointed by what I saw with this two. We need them to dominate this year.
The one player I can’t wait to see this fall is Mack. Having a elite TE is such a huge weapon down the middle of the field for any offense. Just the threat of Mack should open up a lot room for the running game to start clicking.