A few years ago, I was into ranking the potential trap games on the Notre Dame football schedule on a scale of 1 to 10 Ackbars. I haven’t done it since the beloved admiral (spoiler alert!) was wiped out in The Last Jedi, so RIP to a legend.
For reasons unclear to me at this point, I completely forgot to do it for a while. It’s possible it has to do with the fact that I had 2 kids since then. (Some might say that’s its own kind of trap!) In any case, I’m reviving this unknown tradition for 2021 as we look at the Irish slate.
I’m limiting potential trap games to non-standout games on the schedule, so no Wisconsin (the Shamrock game in Chicago will get a lot of hype) or Cincinnati (quite possibly the highest-ranked team ND will face), even though in some ways either might fit the criteria for a trap game.
As Eric said in an article a while ago, this schedule is in some ways one giant trap, because there are no Clemsons or Alabamas on it, but there are a whole bunch of teams that can knock ND off on a given Saturday. Still, I’ve narrowed it down to three specific traps to watch out for.
Potential trap games:
Purdue, 9/18 (after Sept. 11 vs Toledo, before Sept. 25 vs Wisconsin [Chicago])
Purdue’s surrounding games: Sept. 11 @ UConn, Sept. 25 vs Illinois
Notre Dame should be comfortable favorites in each of its first three games, and this is the last of those three. It’s not quite a trap game in the most literal sense – if the Irish have problems with Toledo, then this season has much bigger issues – but it could be a potential trouble spot. This will be ND’s second home game in a row and the Boilermakers’ second straight road tilt.
Notre Dame will presumably not be busting these puppies out as they did the last time Purdue was on the schedule.
The Boilers, one would think, will be more fired up for this contest than will the Irish, and a B1Gger test looms the following week when ND will travel to Chicago for the Shamrock Series road-ish game against Wisconsin. The good news for ND here is that Purdue has several questions to answer that it may not know the answers to yet, like who plays quarterback, for instance.
Because Purdue theoretically shouldn’t be a huge stumbling block for ND, I’m only giving this one 3 Ackbars out of 10, most of that due to the looming Wisconsin game.
@ Virginia Tech, 10/9 (after Oct. 2 vs Cincinnati, before open date Oct. 16)
VT’s surrounding games: Open date Oct. 2, vs Pittsburgh Oct. 16
If Virginia Tech was projected to be just a little bit better, I wouldn’t think of this as a trap spot. But the Hokies have been, and project to be again, a middling to decent team. Good enough to give ND headaches if the Irish don’t play well and VT does, but not good enough to make this a true spotlight game (although it will be the lynchpin of the ACC Network’s fall lineup!) rather than a potential trap.
As has been typical of ACC games, the conference team has drawn an open date the week before this road game in Blacksburg. The Irish, meanwhile, will come in fresh off what promises to be a slugfest against Cincinnati, who nearly had a perfect season last year before surrendering a late lead against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The week before that was Wisconsin in Chicago. Two physical high-level opponents in a row coming into a road game against a team coming off a week off? Not ideal. No, sir.
ND’s off week comes after this, so as with the Purdue game before, that’s a key element of a potential trap game that is missing here. However, the combination of the schedule imbalance between these teams coming in, the road environment and the fact that it falls smack-dab in the middle of the most difficult five-game stretch of ND’s season gives it a heaping helping of trappiness. I’m going to give this one 7 out of 10 Ackbars.
North Carolina, 10/30 (after Oct. 23 vs USC, before Nov. 6 vs Navy)
Carolina’s surrounding games: Open date Oct. 23, vs Wake Forest Nov. 6
Now we’re talking. There are several important ingredients for a trap game, and this Halloween weekend battle against the Tar Heels checks nearly every box.
First, Notre Dame will be coming off what you assume will be an emotional and hard-fought game against their archrivals from Southern Cal. Second, Carolina is coming off an open date (the ACC has a knack for this, as we saw with the Hokies above).
Third, this is actually only Carolina’s second true road game of the season – the Heels open at Virginia Tech, but their next six games include five at home and a not-quite-true road game against Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. They certainly will not be road-weary coming in. Fourth, this is the last of ND’s five-game stretch that will rank among the toughest in the country – Wisconsin, Cincinnati, VT, USC and Carolina could all end up in the top 25 with a few of them possessing top-10 upside. The Irish could be mentally spent at this point in the schedule.
What would normally be the one mitigating factor here – the fact that ND is facing one of their weaker projected opponents the next week – is tempered by the fact that it’s Navy, a historic rival with an unusual offense the Irish know they’ll have to specially prepare for.
The only thing that might keep this from being a true trap game is that Carolina could be undefeated coming in to South Bend. The Heels have potential land mines against VT, Florida State and Miami in their first seven, but the last two are at home and it’s not a long shot that they could be 7-0 when this game kicks off.
It’s only the potential of that scenario that keeps me from rating this game a perfect 10 out of 10 Ackbars. As it is, I will give it a 9, but if Carolina drops a couple of games before South Bend, this may well become a perfect 10 on the trap scale.
DARKHORSE CANDIDATE: at UVA on 11/13. It’s the week after Navy, on the road, and falls right around the time even good Kelly teams tend to start plateauing/backsliding a bit.
That definitely would’ve been #4 on my list. The only reason I didn’t include it is because Georgia Tech (the week after UVA) still appears to be a big nothingburger right now.
Well, GT is on Senior Day and, uh, their coach is a cube.
So.
This is another one
Therefore ban all trips to VA imvho
Has the ACC ever been made to answer why Notre Dame’s opponents so often get a bye before playing Notre Dame? I’d guess it’s as simple as getting plugged into a spreadsheet as the last team in and so it happens over and over again, but it is awfully noticeable.
Not that I’ve ever seen. It hasn’t mattered much, if at all, but it’s something to keep in mind when full-time ACC membership pops up.
It happens way too much to be totally random — in 2019 and 2021 there were four non-opening day ND/ACC games each season, the ACC team had a bye three times prior to playing ND in both years. That’s 6/8 possible games where the ACC team isn’t playing the week before.
I don’t think that alone means some kind of intentional motive to hurt Notre Dame, but also if you’re the ACC why would you go out of your way to help them either? It makes sense for the conference to give the partial member the least favorable spots in the schedule as much as possible, which means the full members then presumably get to be on a more level ground with one another.
If the Wisconsin and Cincy defenses live up to their general hype and we sneak by them in low scoring matchups, we might also be hearing fans clamoring for a QB change the week before of the VT game.
I think the Toledo game is going to be a weirdly-over-hyped atmosphere. The first home game with a full stadium since pre-pandemic and I’m hearing a lot of people are coming in for this game, excited to be back even against a MAC school. Plus the Irish will play on short rest after travelling back from Florida following a Sunday primetime game against FSU. And according to this Bill Connelly tweet Toledo leads the nation in returning production.
So I don’t know that you can quite call it a trap game when the talent differential is as high as it is between ND and Toledo, but high emotions and the best Toledo team in years could make it more exciting than it should be and against a MAC school I really don’t want to sit through another 2018 Ball State. Or 2018 Vanderbilt.
Couldn’t agree more with your first sentence. I make one trip a year in normal seasons and briefly considered changing mine to Toledo just because of how much fun it will probably be for the first game with crowds back.
That’s a good one. I get the placement in the schedule makes Virginia Tech or UNC perhaps more daunting, but a game on the road + possibly at night (Tech) or possibly against a top-10 team (UNC) isn’t really a “trap” game to me. Those are just fairly tough games with increased difficulty due to positioning.
But a MAC team (who might be better early than people think since they’re returning 22 starters like you mention!) for a day game, six days after a prime time flashier FSU matchup is the definition of a trap or letdown game.
Also @Stanford in the last game of the season still makes me blink twice too, even though Kelly won there in 2019. Stanford shouldn’t beat ND, but that’s what makes it a trap game at the end of a long road.
On the bright side, now we may not have to watch it!
Pay-per-view for a MAC game. My goodness.
Yeah. Truly a stupid idea.
I’m really worried about that VT game. It comes off of a brutal stretch and VT will be playing this season for Fuente’s job and they’ll be really hungry for a statement win
I’m not as worried as I’d otherwise be *because* they’re playing for Fuentes’ job (turns out that Memphis as a program was good, not necessarily Fuentes or Chip Long). It looks like a sinking ship from the outside, with a bad culture and a lot of transfers; they’re starting Braxton Burmeister at qb because Hendon Hooker decided that Tennessee looks like a more promising location. I’m expecting much more of a 2018 than a 2019 game.