Look, no one expected what happened last year, not even the most Kool-Aid chugging optimist. While it didn’t end well, it sure was a fun ride. For the first time in many years, the Irish are back coming in with a high rankings and lofty expectations while the rest of the country doesn’t seem too fused by an overhyped Notre Dame. That last point is important. We feel for real, although there are concerns just like any time in the country. As always, once the games begin things can change rapidly and I don’t expect many people to keep so many happy smiles, both within the fan base and across the nation. With more data there will be nits to pick!
Here’s our 2025 season preview for the Fighting Irish.
Breakout Star
Boubacar Traore
The country is going to find out soon.
This situation for Traore feels ripe for a blowup season. He’s played 5 games in each of the last 2 seasons but due to a knee injury suffered last year he’s been mostly off the radar nationally. For many Irish fans, they know what a weapon he can be in his brief career. A season with 10 sacks might be his floor this fall but even if his numbers aren’t super gaudy he’s the type of disruptive force who could command double teams and make the life of everyone a lot easier. He’s my bet for the best defensive lineman on the team.
Most Underrated Player
Aamil Wagner
People are noticing but need to notice more.
I have a lot of players that come to mind for this section including Junior Tuihalamaka, Billy Schrauth, Adon Shuler, or even Christian Gray. I think Aamil Wagner is slowly starting to get more respect and is moving up some NFL Draft boards after his 2024 performance, too. Hell, he’s up to 300 pounds now and everything! He started every game last year and was such a rock for an offensive line that needed dependable performance after experiencing tons of injuries. He may not ever be the flashiest offensive lineman (is this even a thing?) or be talked about like a future top 50 NFL pick but he’s on pace to go down as one of the best players from this era of Notre Dame football.
Most Impactful Transfer
WR Malachi Fields
At the time of writing there’s been some buzz about defensive tackle Jared Dawson from Louisville but that happened before the team was in full pads so I’ll be a little hesitant there. With practice viewing limited by the media we barely get to scrutinize the kicking situation before the season, although it’s quite possible North Carolina transfer kicker Noah Burnette is a crucial part to this season’s success, particularly in the tough first handful of games. I can’t pick a kicker, though.
Long-sleeves and no gloves, this guy may be a certified demon.
We have to pick Virginia transfer Malachi Fields at wide receiver. He’s actually one of only 2 transfer players that are 100% nailed on to be starting out of the gate and I think his opportunity rate to make an impact on the offense is massive. It’s difficult to project numbers for Fields (80 receptions? 60 receptions?) until we see how effective and comfortable the quarterback position becomes. Still, the size and experience with Fields could see him easily no worse than the 2nd most targets in 2025. He’ll be tough to ever take off the field.
Heisman Race
It’s never easy for a running back to win the Heisman, this much we know. Working in Jeremiyah Love’s favor is the entire top 10 in last year’s voting no longer being in college football. There are some high profile experienced quarterbacks (Cade Klubnik, Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar) and elite wide receivers (Jeremiah Smith & Ryan Williams) near the top of the betting odds then it’s a free for all, Love is clearly at the head of the running backs, and the most high profile player at the position right now.
Two big questions for Love remain regarding the Heisman…
A Heisman would be pretty cool.
How gaudy would Love’s stats need to be and can he stay healthy enough to pile up big numbers? So much of the Heisman is about big moments and Love gave us that last year. Still, outside of one big moment he wasn’t effective in the playoffs after dealing with his knee injury. Love “only” ran for 1,125 yards last year (30th nationally among all runners) in 2024. He doesn’t need Ashton Jeanty-like absurd numbers but Love likely needs to push past 1,500 rushing yards (which would be a school record) and be closer to 1,300 yards as the regular season ends.
He’ll get big exposure early on with Notre Dame’s schedule and getting in early with the Heisman is key to staying in the race. Love is already a household name and with 130 yards and 2 touchdowns against Miami he would jump up to the top of the Heisman favorites. Can big drama and meaningful highlights keep him in the discussion with the weaker second half schedule?
.800 Club
Marcus Freeman enters his 4th full season with the Irish and will be coaching his 50th game with the program (the USC game will mark the occasion which is nice) later this fall. He both feels really fresh and new to Notre Dame in a good way but he’s no longer the young pup in general college football coaching terms anymore. In fact, Freeman will turn 40 just a day or two after the College Football Playoff Semifinal games this year, shout out January birthday’s we are the best.
It was a rocky start for Freeman. The coughed up Fiesta Bowl (this loss grinds my gears so damn much and I should get over it but it’s been difficult we led 28-7!!), the 0-2 start to his first full season, meaning a 0-3 career start, and then eventually a worrisome 3-4 beginning to his head coaching career at Notre Dame.
After a bumpy start, Freeman has been locked in.
Since that home loss on 10/15/22 to Stanford (okay now that feels like a long, long time ago!) Freeman is a scorching hot 31-6 overall. Things have turned around so well that if Notre Dame finishes the regular season this fall at 11-1 then Freeman’s winning percentage will bump up to exactly .800 on the dot. The .800 win percentage club at Notre Dame, for anyone who coached more than 2 seasons, only includes Jesse Harper, Knute Rockne, Frank Leahy, and Ara Parseghian.
Haters may quibble about modern schedule strength but that’s good company to be in!
Best Case Scenario Record
15-0
Allow yourself the freedom to contemplate Notre Dame straight up just running the table this year. CJ Carr proves he’s the Real Deal™ and quickly becomes one of the top quarterbacks in the country. Love gets even better and stays healthy while showing the Reggie Bush comparisons really aren’t that far off the mark. The Irish finally get a cohesive and deep wide receiver unit that can produce plays consistently from 5 different players. Eli Raridon looks like a million bucks and plays like it. The offensive line gels immediately and is one of the big reasons why Love is talked about as Heisman candidate while CJ Carr has time to shine at quarterback.
Lucky 13?
Boubacar Traore and Bryce Young become unblockable sack machines. The interior line depth holds up really well. The experience and athleticism at linebacker causes problems for every opponent. The starting trio of corners is unquestionably the best in the nation. Shuler gets even better, Tae Johnson is a dawg, and JaDon Blair is a true freshman condor making a play every game. This is a lot of dreaming but this is what we can do before the season begins.
Worst Case Scenario Record
7-5
I know some of you are thinking in your heads, “no way could this team lose 5 games in the regular season.” Especially if the program isn’t facing any top 5/8-ish teams throughout the regular season from the pre-season rankings, surely 5 overall losses would be an unmitigated mega disaster? Ah, but they happen from time to time don’t they? Think about an interception from an Irish quarterback during the 1st quarter against Miami and harness those dark thoughts if you need to find that depression.
Maybe Carr really struggles out of the gate and loses confidence, there’s flip-flopping between who is starting at quarterback, and we have a juggling nightmare that could divide the locker room. The receiver situation might naturally not pan out in this scenario. Mike Denbrock might struggle moving away from the super mobile Riley Leonard and all of a sudden the offense is getting bogged down in ways we never thought imaginable given the floor with this offensive line and running backs room.
Maybe Chris Ash is not a good hire and things get weird on defense. Notre Dame targeted defensive tackles in the portal for a reason and the level of play there just doesn’t work very well, causing problems throughout the defense. The Irish get a little too easy to run the ball on and many offenses avoid throwing the ball towards the more proven cornerbacks.
I don’t believe this but losses to Miami, Texas A&M, Boise State, USC, and one other head scratcher is conceivable if things start to melt down.
Biggest Team Worry
Defensive Tackle
Some might argue tight end or even a lack of clarity at quarterback. When I published the transfer market shopping article back on December 9th I had defensive tackle in the *Super High* need category all by itself. It’s been a concern for a while as the recruiting at this position hasn’t been spectacular and two big time veterans were walking out the door.
Things have looked better lately. Back in December, Jason Onye was away from the program and Gabriel Rubio gave us a fake news transfer story. They’re both back today. The program also rightly added a pair of transfers at this position, one of whom (Dawson) looks to be either a part-time starter or valued backup at minimum.
Hinish was a surprise captain and could lift up the defensive tackle position.
Still, the overall talent level from this group leaves something to be desired and they have a lot to prove over the course of a full season. If they can get quality play from this group it should portend great things for the defense because there should be very few weaknesses overall.
Trap Game
Pittsburgh
I ranked the Panthers 16th in our 18S pre-season poll, which raised some eyebrows. A lot of that has to do with quarterback Eli Holstein who was 6th best in passer rating among Power 4 freshmen last year (behind DJ Lagway, LaNorris Sellers, Sam Leavitt, Nico Iamaleava, and CJ Bailey) and he can run pretty well, too. Also, Pitt’s 15 starters returning leads the ACC and they added 16 transfers into the program.
Holstein threw 15 TD’s in Pitt’s first 5 games last year before injuries.
It’s possible Pitt is no worse than 8-1 or 7-2 coming into the Notre Dame game. They have the Backyard Brawl at West Virginia in week 3, Louisville at home following that coming off a bye week, a road game in October to Florida State, and a home date against NC State right before coming to South Bend. Those are their most difficult games before Notre Dame.
The Irish will travel to Pittsburgh the week after the Navy game, as well. Major trap game vibes.
Wedding Week
Saturday, September 20th – Purdue
Trying to check the score at the small bar TV during the reception.
This could work out perfectly for those of you who experience the reality of psycho’s who get married during the football season and invite you to their wedding. The Purdue game is, by orders of magnitude, the easiest game to miss on the schedule, especially in the first half of the season and in the more likely wedding month of September.
YPP
The YPP from last year (+1.55 differential) looks different from any other in school history due to the FOUR playoff games. That’s almost half a schedule for most pre-WWII seasons! When the regular season ended, Notre Dame was sitting on an impressive +2.17 YPP differential. That mark would’ve been the 3rd best at Notre Dame since 1964 behind only the 1973 (+2.4) and 1966 (+2.6) seasons.
I can only guess with the games we know about during the regular season. Going over +2.0 yards per play is really difficult! My initial thought is that Stanford and Purdue will be a little better (absolutely blitzed with 1,055 yards of offense from Notre Dame last year) and the bottom of the schedule won’t quite be so bad.
Can this defense be even better than 2024? I think it’s possible. You’d think the 2025 offense will throw the ball more but it’s likely things are pretty conservative with young quarterbacks who have yet to be tested. I’ll guess +1.92 YPP differential for the regular season.
Best Opponent Uniform
Miami
No one jumps out this year as a clear no. 1 in the uniform department for me. Pitt returning to their throwbacks was a great move and they look so much nicer today than a few years ago. Good Lord, Pitt’s older navy uniforms were horrendous. Some might like the clean look of Texas A&M, I’ve always liked their all-white road uniform. Maybe USC does it for some people–not me though.
Can’t go wrong with this look IMO.
Like Pitt, the return to a more classic uniform for Miami has done wonders to their look. Their uniform change back in 2000 was of the time and pretty memorable from a dominant era. Then, the Canes wandered in the wilderness with some really poor uniform choices. Things are much better now, especially with their classic orange and white.
Worst Opponent Uniform
NC State
Boston College, Navy, and Stanford complete a trio of 2025 opponents with boring uniforms. Inoffensive, but boring. In the past, Boise State had some wild uniforms that missed the mark on occasion but lately they’ve been surprisingly traditional for their history.
I picked NC State, though.
NC State looks like a high school team.
The decision to roll with the Tuffy helmet logo is a major win in recent years. Good job there! The rest of the uniform is so basic and I always downgrade a program for putting wordmark down the side of their pants. Are there kids in North Carolina who dream of wearing this uniform? Surely no one is going to these games dying to put on that boring uniform!?
The Road Trips Ranked
#5 Boston College
#4 Pittsburgh
#3 Stanford
#2 Arkansas
#1 Miami
It’ll be two weeks earlier in November and there’s more to do in Boston compared to Pittsburgh. Still, the game against the Panthers should be far more competitive in a livelier downtown stadium. Notre Dame has been visiting Palo Alto in the name of “recruiting” for over 35 years but really everyone likes to enjoy the weather and amenities offered by the Bay Area. That trip could be fun, depending on Notre Dame’s record. Or maybe more of a nuisance.
First game ever against Arkansas for the Irish.
Few places in the country will beat a road trip to Miami, especially for a Sunday night season opener. Fayetteville isn’t old school traditional SEC Land but they’ve been in the league for 33 years and with the recent conference expansion they are more centrally located among the members these days. I’ve never visited but I’ve heard great things about Fayetteville and many of the top towns to visit lists in the SEC have Arkansas in the top 5, if not sometimes right there near the top. Maybe Lou Holtz will provide some tips during game week.
Cold Water Player Prediction
Jaden Greathouse Hype
I think the nation saw Greathouse make some big plays in the playoffs and is ready to treat him like a superstar. I’ve been leading the way with the JG Fan Club and it pains me to predict that he won’t meet those expectations. I’m looking at the Lindy’s pre-season magazine and they have Greathouse as the 9th top receiver in the country for 2025. That type of hype would typically result in 80+ receptions.
I would be extremely surprised if Greathouse had that type of production. Not only because of the other weapons available, or the inexperienced quarterbacks, but also because we’ve never really seen a Notre Dame offense where a primary slot receiver is getting that type of targets and resulting production.
Hot Take Player Prediction
Adon Shuler Seriously Flirts With the NFL After 2025
I was *this* close to picking Shuler as the most underrated player on the team heading into the season. I was looking over the roster and found myself amazed he was only a redshirt sophomore. He played so well last year and started every game that I forgot he was just a freshman last year eligibility-wise.
Shuler passes the eye test.
Of course, he was vastly overshadowed by Xavier Watts last year. Yet, 59 tackles, 3 interceptions, 3 tackles for loss, 5 PBU’s, and a couple quarterback hurries is an awfully nice stat line for someone who can stay with the Irish through the 2027 season. He’s about the same size as Watts but a lot more muscularly defined and maybe a little longer. If he can test really well, I can see the NFL being awfully interested in his services for 2026.
Regular Season Record Prediction
10-2
I’m usually leaning towards the pessimistic side so I guess 2 losses lands me on that side of things? I still feel really good about this team and what they can achieve in 2025, though. I think the quarterback competition lowers my expectations a little bit but there were going to be growing pains with Carr even if reports were he was looking like Peyton Manning. If Carr can play pretty steadily and consistent over the course of the season and they win 11 games that’s outrageously impressive.
If they beat Miami, they “should” go on to win 11 games overall in the regular season.
I predicted the Irish to finish no. 5 at the end of the regular season and you’d think that would mean just 1 loss instead of 2 losses (right where the team was last year in fact). However, Georgia was no. 5 going into conference championship weekend with 2 losses. It’s clearly a possibility. I’m not sure the Irish schedule afford that opportunity, but we’ll see.
It’s tough to bet against this defense, though. There will probably be one really bad quarterback game and an annual super frustrating and weird game where the Irish aren’t playing super poorly but struggle just enough to threaten a loss. I don’t believe 10-2 is disappointing and it’s quite possible the team is really cooking when the playoffs roll around anyway.
I keep thinking about the larger picture. This 2025 Notre Dame could win the National Championship and it’s difficult to put the impending season aside to look toward the future. Still, if this team is able to go 10-2, and win a couple of playoff games with a redshirt freshman at quarterback, the hype is going to be insane from all corners going into 2026. This feels like a great place to be right now.
Amen to that
Hush up, you two.
Everyone knows December babies are the best. After all, what does December 25th commemorate?
Top that one you slackers!
W I N T E R S O L S T I C E
If the Miami game were being played in the pre playoff era, there would be more pressure to win that game. You can recover from an opening loss and even another, and still make the playoff. I think it’s ok to be excited about this team. Every group may not be elite but, I don’t think there’s a real weakness at any position.
I can’t see Denbrock not knowing how to make life easier for Carr, especially if Ash’s unit plays up to it’s abilities. The D staff still being intact should be a plus for Ash. That and Freeman steering him in the right direction.
I’ll be at SC, if this team has more than one loss at that point there might be a sour attitude in the stands. Most are certainly hoping for better.
First, great preview, Eric, one of your best. I can see the halo from last season has you motivated, like all of us I bet.
Despite your points, TLNDMA, I do think Ash as DC is going to be a big question mark, until answered. New coordinators are always an adjustment issue. And his last few years are a bit of a mystery to me.
Anyway, as we discussed, I’ll be at USC as well (and NC State the week prior, for once since the kids grew up I can squeeze out a week in the US). So between us, are we not a nucleus for a 18 Stripes pregame linkup thing?
You know it.
I too will be at the USC game – definitely could be absolutely electric (especially if we’re undefeated and it still looks like this could be the last USC game in the foreseeable future)… or could be a bit of a bummer if we have 2+ losses at that point.
I too will be at the NC State game. If there is a linkup for 18S people sign me up. I’ve only met one other 18 Stripes person (Striper perhaps?) before a game and would like to grow that list.
Who is Striper?
Sounds like our website mascot or something haha.
Striper:
Needs more stripes, no? Can’t wait to see ndmspaints work when someone misspells Striper
He needs fewer right hands
Oops, yeah that was unclear. Striper was my stab at a general term for a commenter on 18S.
Ahhh, I love it!
I would take 10-2 right now and I agree it’s a team that could be peaking on the back half (easier schedule, qb play, young dudes everywhere). End up as 6/7 seed and could make some noise in the playoffs.
Miami texas am to start with brand new quarterback is rough. Find a way to win at least 1
So we’re thinking that 10-2 means we definitely in the playoffs?
I do not, Miami and BYU were left out at 10-2 last year and I don’t think our schedule shapes up much better than theirs were
Right now we have roughly 4 pre-season top 25 teams on the schedule, no? (With USC/Boise rounding it out). I don’t pretend to know whether it’ll finish that way.
I thought I saw strength of schedules even with SP+ that ours is pretty strong. I guess what would be needed would be seeing strength of schedule of our bottom 10 teams and how that would compare (presuming the two losses come against the two best teams).
It would be interesting to see a comparison in schedules. SMU got in with 2 losses right? Was there schedule that much better than Miami’s or was it that they just looked better.
I also do wonder how many times in the past like 5 years would a 10-2 team been left out of the playoffs. Was last year more of a rare thing or would it have been commonplace (with a bigger sample size)?
-SMU’s 2nd loss was in the Conference Championship game. Whether it’s right or wrong, people (the Committee) seem to consider that extra game differently than losing a regular season game.
-ND’s strength of schedule (per SP+) is 44th, which is not strong. It’s the worst of any team in the top 18. Of all of the teams I’ve seen projected to make the playoff this year, the worst SOS is 36th.
It totally depends on when the losses occur, what ND’s biggest wins are, and the context of what everyone else does. If ND crashes and burns against Miami and/or A&M, there goes a big chance to notch some quality wins (which committees tend to like).
I think there’s a decent chance the YPP could be better than last season’s. In the 4th quarter of games where ND has big leads, I expect Freeman to throw the ball a decent amount, to get Minchey in-game experience. Rather than just trying to grind the clock out, I at least am hopeful he will give him the keys to the full offense.
The running game may end up a bit less explosive (last year was just absurd), but Fields and Pauling should theoretically provide some explosiveness that we rarely saw in the passing game last year. Also Stanford might average 0 YPP against this defense (they looked awful against Hawaii).
I could see a world in which BOTH Shuler and Gray are looking at the NFL draft after this season. I think both of them could be NFL level Safeties in 2026, and if Gray can clean up his ability to cover deep routes, he could be an NFL CB as well. Would love to have the whole DB group back for 2026 (other than Nickel, where I think Smith won’t have eligibility), but I bet at least one of Shuler or Gray are gone after this season.
Stroman also out of eligibility after this season
The pessimist in me cannot stop thinking about the possibility of Carr floating some interceptions in those first two games. I really hope not, and I really expect Denbrock to call a relatively conservative passing game with the new starter, but unfortunately new QBs tend to make mistakes
Hope we see a lot of play action. It was the one thing we really didn’t get much of last year. Freeze the safeties and give Carr some chances to toss up some one-on-one 50/50 balls downfield to Fields, to help boost the confidence of both players early.
Agree also slow down some of those rushers against our line too. I’m thinking Riley’s accuracy issues, especially on the move, were a big contributor to less play action in 24.
Took a gander over to caneinsight. Their confidence is off the charts and are looking for another 2017.
Figured they would be. It’s been a tough venue for us since Jimmy Johnson came to town.
16-0 no longer possible, sigh what have they taken from us this year.
10-2 just feels right. I do think there’s more upside than down with having such a solid backup in Minchey. Carr being an absolute stud and making noise in the playoffs feels more likely than both QBs falling flat and us losing 4-5 games.
Excited for Miami. First game, coupled with opponent, 2017 demons, and banjo Beck. Golly really want to win this one.
Technically there could be 5 undefeated teams so one of them doesn’t get a bye, but yeah that’s never happening
Awesome video with Rudolph and Aaron Taylor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byneVfT1l1k&ab_channel=JoeMooreAward
The last third of them is showing clips of Wagner and Schrauth as young and now older players and showing how they’ve improved on similar plays. Really cool to see breakdowns on why an OL succeeded vs failed on a block.
Also, I had no idea that Aaron Taylor straight up founded the Joe Moore Award.
Well that Boise game is looking easier now