More so than any other season of college football, 2020 has proven to be the ultimate test for coaches. The pandemic has produced more unique challenges for every program and the cream has truly risen to the top when it comes to coaching. Now, I wanted take a moment to talk about the coaches who have failed in the face of the pandemic and some other random thoughts.

Not Everyone Can ‘Brian Kelly’ a Program Back to Life

At this point, it’s almost become a meme where struggling coaches declare at the end of the year that they’re going to fix all of their problems by following the now-patented BK Rehabilitation Model. Lynn Swann enrolled Clay Helton in that program after USC went 5-7 in 2018 and Tom Herman made no secret about which coach he wanted to emulate while overhauling the Longhorns this past offseason. It’s possible that Jim Harbaugh and James Franklin will be forced down this route if they’re still around next year.

The case for keeping underperforming head coaches at big-time schools has been universally justified by Brian Kelly being 42-6 since 2016. Nonetheless, Herman’s renovation seems to have already collapsed while Helton is simultaneously living on a prayer and impervious to damage despite producing average SC squads. It seems like the coaches who are attempting a crash course in rebuilding their own programs are sinking faster than they can swim.

These are the biggest reasons why Kelly-like reboots are failing:

#1. The Administration Forces an Unwilling Coach

This is an obvious one and also easy to spot. I’m willing to bet that both Helton and Herman had their arms twisted into making changes which defeats the purpose of a genuine culture overhaul (we’ll get to that). There were rumors in 2016 that Brian Kelly was forced by Jack Swarbrick to fire BVG, but that was the only staff member he was *allegedly* coerced into launching under the bus. Kelly made the decision to get rid of Phil Longo, Keith Gilmore and Scott Booker on his own.

It’s pretty obvious that Jim Harbaugh doesn’t want to fire Don Brown despite diminishing returns. In an extreme example, Mark Dantonio preferred to call it quits rather than change his staff. As such, their programs have suffered the consequences.

#2. Not Changing the Right Coaches

After 2018, Clay Helton hit the jackpot by hiring Kliff Kingsbury as OC. After Kingsbury instantly failed upward into the NFL, Helton somehow got a second lease on life with Graham Harrell who has proven to be one of the best young coordinators in college football. The USC offense jumped from 46th in SP+ to 9th last year and Harrell is locked up for the foreseeable future.

However, Helton’s failure on the other side of the ball will be his downfall. DC Clancy Pendergast had a great season in 2013 as the Trojans ranked 4th in SP+ defense. The USC defense then began a gradual slide to 60th in SP+ last year after that high water mark. Pendergast finally got the ax last offseason which was a prerequisite for Helton keeping his job. Yet, had he made that move earlier and hired a bright, young DC (someone like Clark Lea) to match Harrell the Trojans likely would’ve won 1o games.

Now imagine if Kelly had still fired BVG but kept the Mike Sanford Jr./Mike Denbrock tandem intact. Sure, the Irish defense would still be much improved but it’s likely there would’ve another disjointed mess on the offensive side of the ball that would undo all of that progress. Keep an eye on the programs moving forward that only make a half-hearted effort towards improving themselves (looking at you, Penn State).

#3. They Don’t Overhaul Culture

As we know too well, Kelly changed everything about Notre Dame after 2016. He bucked his entire career by firing friends and hiring a whole batch of strangers. The crazy thing is that he really didn’t have to do most of this. Notre Dame was clearly better under his stewardship and the 2016 team was apocalyptically unlucky. In all seriousness, he could’ve just canned BVG, promoted Mike Elston and still had a good run the last four seasons.

Of course, maybe the biggest change Kelly made was overhauling his own mindset. He gave up control of the offense after the Zaire/Kizer debacle and the program is better off. When’s the last time you saw him explode on a player after a mistake after years of the national media making purple-face jokes? Tom Herman could recruit every single five star player or hire the best assistant coach for every unit, but he’d still fail because he has not proven to be mature enough to just get over himself. Needless to say, that’s a Harbaugh problem as well.

These coaches are failing and will continue to fail because they don’t commit to the full process. That means firing friends, hiring strangers and getting bold with personnel. Even so, I bet we’ll continue to see stories from the national sports media lauding the next sub-.500 coach for picking Brian Kelly’s brain without making the truly necessary changes that would affect winning. At the end of the day, I don’t think anyone appreciates enough the work Kelly has done to turn around this program.

Hiring a Loyal Son

Texas’ hire of Tom Herman seemed to herald a potential national turning point in 2016.  They hired a guy who cut his teeth in Texas and made no secret that coaching in Austin was his dream. Herman was one of the hottest commodities of the 2010s after going 22-4 at Houston where he’d also just beaten Oklahoma. Like the hires of Harbaugh and Scott Frost in Lincoln, a prodigal son was returning. The Longhorns are back, baby!

The feeling of intense love proved even more palpable for Harbaugh and Frost who had led their schools to spectacular success as their starting quarterbacks. Their returns as head coach granted them deity status and essentially made them above reproach while they set to work restoring their alma maters to prominence.

Obviously, these are incredibly rare situations where a blueblood school has the opportunity to hire a blast from the glorious past. In another recent example, Texas Tech also made that move with Kliff Kingsbury and lo and behold, it didn’t work out either. You can’t argue that these aren’t good coaches, either. Scott Frost was widely considered to be the real brains behind Mark Helfrich’s tenure at Oregon and immediately turned UCF around. His tactics have worked everywhere… except Nebraska. Why is that?

The Weight of Expectations… Without the Accountability

A loyal son like Steve Spurrier won big at Florida not only because he was on the extreme cutting edge of the game at the time but also due to the fact that the Gators weren’t a national power yet. He essentially took over the present day version of SEC Iowa and turned them into dynasty. It also didn’t hurt that he hired tremendous coordinators in Bob Stoops and Ron Zook who ensured accountability within the program once expectations finally reached critical mass.

Notre Dame fans know all too well how mistakes are magnified on this stage and the historical consequences of losing. Now imagine if Brady Quinn had a successful coaching career, came back to ND after 2016 and had the same record as Scott Frost. That would hurt a lot worse than an outsider like Kelly failing, right? Now imagine if Quinn reacted to losing at his alma mater by chucking players under the bus like Frost is right now with the lesson being “back in my day…”

Nebraska’s problem is that it has a beloved head coach who hasn’t won anything and yet has basically unquestioned control of a 10-19 football program. The question moving forward is one of accountability to hiring the right people around Frost. Expectations are always going to be high and he’s still a young coach at 45. Unless he finds the right coaching staff, every loss without progress is going to lead to disaster and divorce down the road.

That leads me to my final point…

The Curious Case of Jim Harbaugh

Michigan is now 2-4 after losing to winless Penn State last weekend and now it looks like one of Notre Dame’s oldest adversaries might be reaching the end of his tenure. As such, I thought I might say a few words at his proverbial wake and try to unpack what should have been a perfect football marriage.

I’ll be the first to admit that I bought the hype when Harbaugh was hired in 2014. Overwhelming evidence suggested he would be a smash hit in Ann Arbor and his first two years bore that out. Michigan was instantly better than they were for the past decade and was a contentious 4th down spot away from a playoff berth. Four of his first five teams ranked in the top-10 in SP+ with the 2016 version ranking 3rd.

That early sense of hope translated to off the field success as well. Three of his first four recruiting classes ranked in the top-10 and Harbaugh even signed the #1 high school player in Rashan Gary for the class of 2016. This wasn’t a mirage, Michigan was damn good these years with a solid foundation to build upon.

It’s hard to pinpoint how the Harbaugh Era went wrong and why it seems inevitable that he’ll be gone. Explanations which reference his psyche, talent pool and Ohio State’s dominance don’t suffice. Like most things, the easiest answer involves a combination of factors.

Football Failures and the final end of the ‘Michigan Man’

I’ll posit that Harbaugh’s idiosyncrasies aren’t the issue here. The major concern about Harbaugh’s style is that he wears people out from players to the administration to fans. Yet, this is Michigan we’re talking about and the Wolverine fanbase loves this hokey crap even though it grates on everyone else. From wearing the fake Bo Schembechler glasses to the satellite camps to handing shoes to the Pope, those at MGoBlog and beyond couldn’t eat it up fast enough. They’d still be eating if up if Harbaugh was at least on pace to go 10-2.

Ultimately, he simply can not field complete teams on the field and nowhere has this been more apparent than The Game. The Wolverines’ defense played well in both 2016 and 2017 but were let down by Wilton Speight and John O’Korn as Ohio State overcame early deficits. 2018 and 2019 have seen two pretty good performances by Michigan’s offense, only for the defense to give up well over 100 points combined. Harbaugh’s failures against OSU have come to signify the troubles that have plagued his regime.

It’s fair to say that Harbaugh has mostly pressed the right buttons but at the wrong times. His first three years saw great defenses wasted in big games by a bumbling offense. Harbaugh boldly hired Josh Gattis away from Bama and the Michigan offense dramatically improved after the Penn State game last year. However, it means nothing now that Don Brown’s once impenetrable defense has completely collapsed.

Harkening back to the Scott Frost situation, every loss in Michigan has led to increased grumbling about ceiling. I really don’t think ND fans understand how important Kelly’s third year was not just in engendering winning, but establishing his coaching skill as national championship or bust. I’m not sure Kelly survives 2016 if the 2012 team finished 9-4. In contrast, Michigan has no such metric with Harbaugh who hasn’t won the division and sucks in big games.

It’s hard to say where Michigan goes in a post-Harbaugh world. Luke Fickell is an obvious choice but his name carries special revulsion among the Maize and Blue because of his Ohio roots (by the way, terrible reason to not hire someone). There are rumors that Matt Campbell would only ever consider Ohio State or Notre Dame. Of course, the real test for Michigan’s administration will be to shed the “Michigan Man” prerequisite they invented for holding any position in Ann Arbor. If they fail to do that and turn the program over to another nostalgic Schembechler worshipper, Irish fans and the BIG can rest easy for years to come.