If the previous 4 weeks weren’t a strong enough indication we have more data to conclude the country is divided by Alabama and Georgia then everyone else. They’re being hunted by a pair of Big Ten teams in our poll, neither of which are Ohio State. Buckle up, things are bound to get very weird this season.
Let’s take a look at the latest Top 20 poll from 18 Stripes.
18 Stripes Top 20 Poll
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 | 42-21 W vs. Ole Miss |
| 2 | Georgia | 5-0 | 37-0 W vs. Arkansas |
| 3 | Penn State (+1) | 5-0 | 24-0 W vs. Indiana |
| 4 | Iowa (+2) | 5-0 | 51-14 W at Maryland |
| 5 | Cincinnati (+2) | 4-0 | 24-13 W at Notre Dame |
| 6 | Oklahoma (+3) | 5-0 | 37-31 W at Kansas State |
| 7 | Oregon (-4) | 4-1 | 31-24 L at Stanford |
| 8 | Ohio State (+2) | 4-1 | 52-13 W at Rutgers |
| 9 | BYU (+3) | 5-0 | 34-20 W at Utah St. |
| 10 | Michigan (+3) | 5-0 | 38-17 W at Wisconsin |
| 11 | Oklahoma State (+7) | 5-0 | 24-14 W vs. Baylor |
| 12 | Coastal Carolina (+3) | 5-0 | 59-6 W vs. UL-Monroe |
| 13 | Wake Forest (+7) | 5-0 | 37-34 W vs. Louisville |
| 14 | Notre Dame (-6) | 4-1 | 24-13 L vs. Cincinnati |
| 15 | Michigan State (+2) | 5-0 | 48-31 W vs. Western Kentucky |
| 16 | Arkansas (-11) | 4-1 | 37-0 L at Georgia |
| 17 | Arizona State (NR) | 4-1 | 42-23 W at UCLA |
| 18 | Ole Miss (-7) | 3-1 | 42-21 L at Alabama |
| 19 | Auburn (NR) | 4-1 | 24-19 W at LSU |
| 20 | Kentucky (NR) | 5-0 | 20-13 W vs. Florida |
Georgia and Penn State pitched shutouts this past weekend, while Alabama opened up a 35-0 lead against Ole Miss into the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Iowa’s charmed season continues as Maryland coughs up 7 turnovers on a Friday night spotlight.
Cincinnati has remained atop PJ’s Group of 5 rankings and they scooch up closer to claiming one of the prized playoff spots. Are they lock for a spot if undefeated?
I predicted a loss for OU traveling to Kansas State but they ultimately prevailed. All four of the Sooners’ games against FBS competition this year have been decided by a touchdown or less. I also thought Oregon could essentially lock up the Pac-12 North this past weekend and nope. Stanford upsets the Ducks and now sits above Oregon in the division.
My kids have been sick for the better part of 3 weeks and if you’d like to feel nauseous like them Michigan is one spot above the Irish in SP+ and now move into our Top 10 rankings.
Nine @AP_Top25 teams lost on Saturday:
No. 3 Oregon
No. 8 Arkansas
No. 9 Notre Dame
No. 10 Florida
No. 12 Ole Miss
No. 15 Texas A&M
No. 18 Fresno State
No. 20 UCLA
No. 21 BaylorThat’s a record 34 ranked teams that have lost in 1st 5 weeks
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) October 3, 2021
Quietly good Oklahoma State has been winning football games without scoring a bunch, a bit weird for them. The Cowboys have only scored over 30 once this season.
A late field goal preserved Wake Forest’s undefeated season in a wild 4th quarter against Louisville. They’re our highest (and only) ranked ACC team.
Arizona State is back in the rankings following a nice win over UCLA. The Sun Devils join Oregon as the only Pac-12 teams in the 18S poll.
Kentucky beats Florida for the 2nd time in 4 meetings and now get into our rankings.
OUT: Florida, Texas A&M, Baylor
Speaking of Florida, they only fell to 20th in the latest AP Poll but have dropped out of our rankings. The Gators currently sit 4th in the SEC East standings.
Texas A&M as a National Championship contender looks all but dead as they lose their second in a row, not being able to crack 300 yards of offense in either defeat.
Week 6 Games to Watch
Last Week: 7-5
Overall: 21-17
Stanford (+13) at Arizona State
The Cardinal are finding a groove with quarterback Tanner McKee (he’s just behind ASU’s Jayden Daniels in passer rating) and at the very least look for more robust than we thought a month ago. They also won their last trip to Tempe and this feels like an enormous spread for teams with comparable talent. Sun Devils win 35-33.
Oklahoma (-3) vs. Texas
Someone is going home with a soul-crushing loss. We don’t predict enough upsets and this one has been coming for the Sooners for a while, I think. It’s unlikely this will spring Texas to run the table but I would remind everyone they’ve only lost once out of conference and could get into the playoff discussion with a win. Longhorns win 29-24.
Arkansas (+6) at Ole Miss
Is Arkansas the cool and fun story of 2021 that just got a strong dose of reality last week and will now have a hard time picking itself up for another big road game? Probably! Rebels win 42-29.
Georgia (-15.5) at Auburn
Georgia’s next 3 games include Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida before a generally agreeable final 4 games to conclude the regular season. History suggests they will mess up in one of these 3 games. This is the only true road game from that bunch. It seems insane for them to lose as heavy favorites with a defense giving up a national-best 4.6 points per game, I’m just saying weirder things have happened and there’s verified voodoo in Auburn. Tigers win 17-14.
Penn State (+2) at Iowa
If Georgia loses the winner of this game could be the No. 2 team in the country–and pending the game below–potentially the No. 1 team in the land. I feel uncomfortable. Bottom line, Iowa’s offense is not that good and it’s going to be cost them eventually. Nittany Lions win 33-27.
Alabama (-17.5) at Texas A&M
Oh, hey it’s just a top 10 matchup via SP+ and Alabama is favored by over 3 scores. The Aggies are averaging 14 points per game against Power 5 competition this year and we know an anemic offense, even with a good defense, is not the recipe to topple Alabama. The Tide are also averaging 48(!) points per game in the 3 meetings against the A&M Mike Elko defenses. Crimson Tide win 43-19.
Maybe this could be the year for the G5. Then again, right now I think it would be Bama, UGA, Big10 champ, Oklahoma. Is the committee really going to put Cincy in over one of those teams if there’s 2 undefeated P5 champs and the 2 SEC powerhouses? Remain skeptical. But if one trips it could happen.
B1G is definitely the one conference that seems most up in the air for sure. I think there’s a path where Penn State wins on Saturday, Iowa wins out (because no one unit is better than their defense in the West) and the B1G East has some sort of cannibalization akin to 2016. I think that might be the path for Cincinnati. The other is pure Big 12 chaos which doesn’t seem impossible, but it feels like that OU needs to drop both Texas and Okie St (and defeat whichever of those teams meets them in Jerry World).
I think if:
There’d be a strong case for UC to get in. Also, probably a lot more backroom politicking going on with the OU>SEC, UC>B12 moves. Cincinnati probably has more “favor” with the CFB world than perhaps a UCF or BSU since they already beat a team everyone loves to hate. This is the year for a G5 team to get in.
If Cinci gets in, they’ll be crushed by Bama or Georgia, and that’ll be the end of the squalling for a G5 entrant.
Same for the playoff expansion, an excuse to make more money by including clearly inferior teams.
This is no different than ND or OU getting in, historically. Can’t play hypothetical games, just the actual games.
it’s way different. Notre Dame was a top 4 team in 18 and last year and they deserved it. In 18 they went unbeaten against a real schedule and last year only lost in the rematch to Clemson. Imagine Notre Dame going unbeaten and getting in with the schedule Cincy has. The internet would break. 18 or 20 ND beats this Cinci team by at least 2 TDs
’18 or ’20 Irish team beats any team this year not named Bama or Georgia by 2 TDs this year.
ND ’18 Schedule
No. 14 Michigan 6
Ball State 114
Vanderbilt 30
at Wake Forest 67
No. 7 Stanford 37
at No. 24 Virginia Tech 77
Pittsburgh 49
vs. Navy 101
at Northwestern 42
Florida State 84
vs. No. 12 Syracuse 35
at USC 62
Avg FEI 58.67
ND 14
Cincinnati ’21 Schedule
Miami (OH) 91
Murray State
at Indiana 64
at No. 9 Notre Dame 13
Temple 109
UCF 49
at Navy 94
at Tulane 98
Tulsa 83
at South Florida 112
SMU 51
at East Carolina 82
Avg FEI 76.91
Cincinnati 10
I don’t think I’d call either great. But, considering UC’s scheduling limitations, it’s not a terrible OOC slate.
Also, stop talking about prior teams and playoffs. It’s the 2022 playoff, not the 2019 or 2021 playoff. Doesn’t matter that the “18 or 20 ND beats this Cinci team by at least 2 TDs” – the 2021 team lost by 11. There’s no such thing as a 2.5 team playoff, so the standard of would/would not get curb-stomped by SECCG participants is not valid. It’s merely the 4 highest rated teams.
kiwifan is spot on. The group of 5 talk is nauseating to me! If they actually were a top 4 team I would be okay with it. Cincinnati is not even close to that. This would be the year for one of them to sneak in though. There will be lots of chaos. I hope they get in and get crushed by Bama like Kiwi said
Topic for discussion…
How do people balance the complaining about the same teams dominating in the playoffs while also objecting to something like 2021 Cincinnati making the playoffs?
For example:
For the betterment of the sport, competition, and mostly entertainment folks would NOT want to see Alabama upset by Cincinnati???
I get people thinking after week 5 that Cincinnati isn’t good enough in their eyes. I don’t necessarily agree, but I get it. But I don’t get the wish for Cincy to get crushed out of some G5 oppression angle.
Also, Cincinnati is now G5 in name only, as they are moving to the Big 12. If this same exact scenario happened in 2 years, no one would be batting an eye at Cincinnati in the playoffs.
Lots of gatekeeping happening over here the last few weeks.
Well, if they were in the CURRENT Big 12, with Texas and Okie fine, but their current schedule sucks.
I don’t have any problem with the same teams getting in if they are the best.
I’m against participation trophies.
I hear ya but I’ve never complained about the same teams like a lot of others have. I want the 4 best teams whoever they are.
I was super wrong about Florida last week, so who should I be super wrong about this week?
Here it is: Ole Miss is going to beat up on Arkansas.
Considering Arkansas is the other team I follow, I’m hoping your reverse jinx is correct (but worry Ole Miss offense will break Arky’s defense)
Have to admit I really enjoy watching a&m struggle and staring down an 8-4 season. Kind of a reminder of the fools gold that comes with winning a NY6 game. Same with Oklahoma. Cool they won that game but they’re just as far away from the mountaintop. I guess at least for ND, they got the reminder in real-time.
Michigan is definitely feeling themselves right now. I have a feeling OSU gonna be peaking at the end of the year and put it on them again. As much as I enjoy that, I realize Ohio state next regular season game will be ND
8-4 season means 8 first downs and 4 TDs?
Hah! Love it. I can’t stand Jimbo