Remember that excellent 2018 Notre Dame team, and that pretty darn good 2019 team?  Now remember the problems they had with Virginia Tech?

You’re about to.

Notre Dame (-1) at Virginia Tech

Lane Stadium
Blacksburg, VA
Date: Saturday, October 9nd, 2021
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ACCN

Justin Fuente took over from the Frank Beamer in 2016 and started 10-4.  Don’t ask whether we played Tech that year.  In 2017 he went 9-4.  In 2018, 6-7.  In 2019, 8-5.  In 2020, 5-6 and the AD had to come out and explicitly say Fuentes would return.   In the 2018 and the 2020 seasons, Tech started strong and the suffered late season streaks of multiple losses.  Thus, despite their good start this year, Tech fans seem to have a “wait and see” attitude to the season and Fuentes’ future.

Virginia Tech opened the season by knocking off a (then) top 10 UNC team at home.  They won their next game against Middle Tennessee 35-14, then had a “not as close as the score looks” 21-27 loss at WVU.  They defeated Richmond 21-10 the next next week.

Virginia Tech is coming off a bye and the even Vegas giving ND a one point edge perhaps overstates their advantage, as on Monday myBookie was charging an ND bet at -105 but a Tech bet at -115.  That’s now leveled out to -110 on each side of -1.

Side by Side:

Virginia Tech’s Offense

The Hokies have, if not an overwhelming, then at least a well balanced rushing attack this year: juniors Jalen Holston with 159 yards (4.3 ypc) and Rasheam Blackshear with 144 (3.8 ypc).  This is achieved mostly by edge runs; the Tech line cannot open holes in the interior and backs consistently get pushed to the outside.  The Hokies 3rd leading rusher is QB Braxton Burmeister, with 140 yards.  The guy can run, especially when you consider he was sacked six times by West Virginia and had many “carries” for few yards in that game. He’s also a solid passer – 101 attempts for 746 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT.  On slants, screens, and any throw within 20 yards, he looks accurate and can deliver into a tight window.

And yet, Tech’s offense has not, so far this season, looked that good.  They have scored 35 against MTSU but not broken 21 in their other 3 games.  Part of the problem, as mentioned above, is their lack of an interior running game.  Another flaw appears to be related to their inability to stretch the field.  In a discussion between Pete Sampson and Andy Bitter on the Athletic, Andy – the Tech beat reporter – noted that the Hokies have 13 pass plays that have gone for 20 or more yards.  This is 87th nationally and if you look at 30 or 40+ yard plays, the problem gets worse.  I do think Tech will have a slightly better performance against ND.  They also got inside the 5 yard line thrice against WVU and came away with zero points.  There’s no reason to expect ND will experience the continuation of such good luck.  More importantly, I think the bye before facing ND will allow them to clean up some mistakes – it’s early enough in the year that teams can make great strides week to week, which is what Cincinnati did when you compare their post bye game (ND) to their pre-bye game (Indiana).

Make no mistake, though – this matchup very much favors ND’s defense (ranked 17th in SP+) over the Tech offense (37th).  When a QB has trouble with downfield passes, press coverage should do just fine, particularly when bringing pressure.  Tech had a lot of trouble with WVU’s line.  I expect ND to do at least as well as WVU on pressuring Burmeister, though I expect us to have less sacks.  WVU had 6, and although ND has a talent advantage, WVU’s offensive success meant Tech was playing from behind almost the entire game.  But Burmeister had 16 “carries” for 11 yards.  I think that bottom line is something ND can replicate.

Virginia Tech’s Defense

Part of what makes this preview difficult for me is that – for both teams – I’m not convinced their 2020 performance is indicative of what we’ll see this year.  In the case of Tech, they hired a new DC (with a new system) prior to 2020.  Because of covid’s massive preseason disruption, they couldn’t install much of a system and ran one front all year.  This year, they’ve shown more versatility and are customizing their approach to the opponent.  To me, it looks like they mostly run a four man line and I see what looks like a lot of nickel, but I’ve only watched their games against UNC and WVU.  They’ve recorded 13 sacks on the year.  The two team leaders are LB Dax Hollifield and DL TyJuan Garbutt (quality name) with three apiece.

It doesn’t feel this way, but statistically, ND’s offensive line did improve last week and I believe we’ll still see some further improvement in the season – although the line is too young to be powerful, I’m still seeing lots of utterly missed blocks where our linemen stand around no one.  That should only get better – though “should get better” has set up ND fans for a lot of disappointment in my lifetime.  In any event, this week is an opportunity for another incremental improvement in the run game: WVU’s top backs averaged about 7.5 yards per carry.  We probably won’t get there – WVU is generally competent on offense – but Richmond averaged 4.4 yards a carry against Tech, lead backs averaging 4.8.  Even UNC – whose offensive line tech absolutely whipped while abusing QB Sam Howell – still averaged 4.9 yards a carry, with the lead backs averaging about 7 yards a carry.

Prediction

This is tough.  As mentioned above, I don’t think 2020 tells us much about Tech.  We also haven’t seen much from Tech this year.   They had an imperfect but still brilliant opening against UNC, got beaten convincingly by WVU, and took care of business without impressing against their weaker opponents.

I don’t think Tech is a monstrously good team but right now, ND is absolutely limp on offense.  Given how visibly Michael Mayer was hobbled at Cincinnati, I think his impact will be limited.  That leaves us without a key weapon / crutch for our QB.  Speaking of QB, the scuttlebutt is that ND’s QB indecision continues – Pyne was planned to be the starter but then had a pretty bad practice on Wednesday in which he repeatedly missed on important reads.  Now, it looks like the staff has an ever so slight lean to Coan, though no one is really sure.

This is not a recipe for success when you have ND’s abysmal running attack.  And the passing game might not be as “good” as normal; the weather forecast – depending on where you look – gives a 40-60% chance of rain.  “Rain” does not imply a 2016 NC State hurricane game where running the ball was the only feasible option.  But when you think of a QB controversy with one side of the ball being an utter disaster and visiting a competent opponent on the road in the rain… what do *you* think of?

If we had Tech at home on a sunny day, I think our better athletes pull this off.  But we have them on the road on a probably rainy evening.  Bring on the gloom.

Notre Dame 21

Virginia Tech 24