This time four years ago, I penned a preview of the 2022 home opener against Marshall.

Let’s begin this attempt at an exorcism by way of examining the SCARY FACTORS:

  1. A week two home opener (against an overmatched foe). Here are our last 5 home openers: a should’ve-been loss to Toledo, a disastrous loss to Marshall in which our QB was lost for the season, a game against FCS Tennessee State that featured a very sad first quarter, a disastrous loss to NIU, and a possible national championship-blowing loss to Texas A&M.

  2. Coming off a Very Short Week. A gruesome tradition that has beheld such moments as: Texas A&M squaks out a 10 point win against Nichols University (2017); Notre Dame (W) and Florida State (L) fight to 3-point outcomes vs. Toledo and Jacksonville State, respectively; LSU gets taken deep into the 4th quarter by Nichols.

  3. Against a Team and Offense With a Clear Plan. Rice is a Gun-Option team. In their opener they help the ball for 40 minutes. Last year they kept indie darling UCONN from hitting 10 wins by outrushing them 3-to-1 in a 37-34 victory. They are going to hope for some sloppiness from ND, an explosive/trick play or two, and try to get into the Weird Zone of the late 2nd half.  You can bet your bottom dollar they’re going to send a bunch of double moves at Christian Gray and Jayden Sanders.

  4. That Definitely Has “MARSHALL” Level Talent on the Roster. 18S research intern ChatGPT (yes, I’ve been training a model on this game for about a month for purposes of this specific preview, thank you very much)  helped me compile recruiting profiles on 2021 Toledo, 2022 Marshall, 2024 NIU, and 2026 Rice. Here’s the readout (unverified, but passes the smell test):

  • 2026 Rice: Probably the best average recruiting pedigree of the four. On3 has the roster at an 83.28 average rating, with 21 transfers and one former four-star. That’s higher than the comparable Marshall and NIU roster averages. The roster has been aggressively rebuilt through the portal, and Jacurri Brown gives them a genuinely P4-caliber athlete at the most important position.

  • 2022 Marshall: Had the most high-end pedigree. On3 shows one former five-star and three four-stars on the roster, a 5.7% blue-chip rate, although its overall average was only 82.01. The five-star was former Florida State RB Khalan Laborn, who ran for 1,513 yards that season. This was a considerably more talented roster than the generic “Sun Belt team” label suggests.

  • 2021 Toledo: Probably the best developed roster of the bunch, even if it didn’t look spectacular by recruiting stars. That team contained future NFL players including Tycen Anderson and very young future stars such as Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Alexander, plus DeQuan Finn and 1,400-yard RB Bryant Koback. The nearly identical 2022 Toledo roster registered an 81.89 average rating with two four-stars. I’d put its raw recruiting pedigree around Marshall/NIU territory, but its eventual NFL talent was unusually good for the MAC.

  • 2024 NIU: Clearly the least heralded roster coming out of high school. On3 shows an 81.19 average rating, zero four- or five-stars, and a 0% blue-chip rate. Only eight players were transfers. This was overwhelmingly a roster of developmental MAC recruits that Hammock had identified and developed.

 

Here’s a video of them pushing around HCU, alma mater of Bailey Zappe

 

 

Now, with all that being said, let’s examine some REASSURING ARGUMENTS:

  1. RICE is not coming into this game with SECRETLY A BASTARD OF A DEFENSE. The Marshall squad that beat the Irish in 2022 finished 2nd nationally in defensive yards per play. The NIU squad that topped ND two years ago finished 9th nationally in the same metric. They weren’t one-year wonders, either, both had been Top 25th nationally on the same account. Rice, for its part, was 124th last season. This is an essential point, as the recipe for these types of upsets almost always rests with a well-coached, veteran defense keeping a lid on the end zone while the favorite’s frustration builds.

  2. NOTRE DAME is much more well built to stop a team from “game controlling” us to death than in years past. Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE Al Golden and I think his NFL approach of prioritizing QB discomfort led to ND breaking through at the highest levels of the sport. Our willingness to concede low-payoff plays was brutal in prior upsets, though. Northern Illinois only had two drives fail to cover at least 30 yards back in 2024. Marshall was a bit better, but they still gave up four extremely long drives in the ’22 loss (’twas the terrible QB play and interceptions that sunk us that day).  Our ability to play zone and bottle up Colton Joseph last week bodes very well for our hopes of snuffing out Rice’s “game within a game” imperative to shorten the game, flip the field, etc.

3. We are almost certain to not get bogged down by very sad QB play. The combines stat line for ND quarterbacks against Marshall and Northern Illinois:

  • 41-of-70 passing
  • 384 yards
  • 1 TD
  • 5 INT
  • 58.6% completions
  • 5.5 yards/attempt

For those of you keeping score at home, that works out to a passer rating of 95.1, which is “Dead Last in the Country” territory.  To give you even more context, Bryce Underwood’s passer rating in last weekend’s game against Western Michigan (not including the one play exhibition staged for fan enjoyment after the game ended) was 92.1. Eek.

CJ Carr’s worst day last year was 110.9 in the rain against USC. I don’t think he will be anywhere near that level Saturday, but even if he were it would probably be more than enough to win.

 

 

PREDICTION

ND 42

RICE 10