There were three big news items for the Irish this offseason. Two were on the field, with the transfer of Jack Coan and the hiring of Marcus Freeman. The third was the announcement that this game against the Rockets would air exclusively on Peacock. Now, to me, this isn’t a surprising endeavor. The Irish aired the Blue-Gold Game on the platform and in a world of cable cutting, this may be the future for the Irish, but before we look forward, let’s look backwards.

From 1991 until 2014, every Notre Dame home game aired exclusively on NBC. Every Notre Dame fan had that channel no matter the size of their cable package. The first game to not air on NBC was the 2015 Shamrock Series game at Fenway Park in Boston. I’m not sure what the reasons were for the change to NBCSN because NBC aired the animated classic Free Birds, followed by a SNL re-run from 2010. The other games that got moved to non NBC channels were the 2017 Miami (OH) game and the 2020 USF game. Notre Dame home games had, for the most part, been a staple of the fall NBC schedule.

This announcement caused so much internet outrage both on Twitter and on Facebook. The backlash was seemingly harsh enough that Notre Dame has had a set of Facebook posts using NBC IP to promote the game on Peacock. My favorite one as of this writing is the below photoshopped picture of Tim Riggins from Friday Night Lights fame:

Listen to Tim Riggins Everyone!

I honestly don’t know what I find funnier in this image; the @NDFootball, the fact that the photoshop goes through the Closed Captioning Box, or that there is an image of Transformers in the background.

As I mentioned at the top, this seems like an inevitable move towards streaming, which is a common occurrence as every major studio and channel appears to have a corresponding streamer with its own content. The writers room talked about Peacock a fair amount on Wednesday as the social media promotion ramped up. I assume that most people will either a) use their Comcast service to get Peacock and watch the game, b) take the short term deal Notre Dame has promoted or c) password share. No matter how the game is watched, it will be interesting to see where Notre Dame athletics, not just football, goes from here with their relationship with Peacock.

Toledo at Notre Dame (-16.5)

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, IN
Date: Saturday, September 11, 2021
Time: 2:30 PM ET
TV: N/A (Only Available on Peacock)

Brian Kelly mentioned on Monday that this was the best MAC team that he has ever coached against since he came into South Bend. The other MAC teams that Kelly teams have face are (with final scores and final records);

• 2010 Western Michigan (44-20, Finished 6-6)
• 2015 UMass (62-27, Finished 3-9)
• 2017 Miami (OH) (52-17, Finished 5-7)
• 2018 Ball State (24-16, Finished 4-8)
• 2019 Bowling Green (52-0, Finished 3-9)

So, Kelly’s insight there is correct based purely on the fact that none of those teams have a honest chance at going above .500, let alone win their conference. I’ve staked my claim on Toledo in my Group of 5 series, thinking they are the best team of the conference. However, the MAC talent, while experienced, should be no match for the Irish.

Toledo’s Offense

After departing Senior Eli Peters went down in the Ball State game last season, the super sophomore Carter Bradley stepped and continue to lead the Rockets offense. Bradley looks to continue his successes against Northern Illinois and Central Michigan into 2021. During his 2020 season he threw for 779 yards in games he started. He threw for 183 yards and a TD. He appears to be primarily a pocket passer, with limited mobility.

Someone who appears to be joining Bradley in the Toledo backfield is redshirt sophomore Dequan Finn. Finn appears to be a change of pace QB for the Rockets. He led the Rockets in rushing a week ago with 82 yards a TD. How much he plays against an opponent like Notre Dame remains to be seen. However, based on head coach Jason Candle’s weekly press conference, Finn should be playing against the shifting Irish defense.

Photo by Haley Boehm

Potentially the best player on the Toledo offense is running back Bryant Koback. The junior was on pace to get over 1000 yards in 2020. His role in the passing game went up in 2020, catching 24 balls, doubling his career total at that point. Looking at his games against a similar caliber to Notre Dame, Koback averages 62.3 yards per game. The success of the offense seems to Koback churning out long drives with consistent running. Obviously, with the question marks up front, Koback hopes be more akin to the fourth quarter running compared to the first three quarters.

Toledo have a quartet of different receivers that they can use down the field. Devin Maddox appears to have the most potential to burn the secondary based on his first game. He took a pass 84 yards to the house against Norfolk State, a career high. Isaiah Winstead led the Rockets in catches and receiving yards in 2020, but was quiet against his former team. Bryce Mitchell and Danzel McKinley-Lewis are the senior starters (along with Winstead). Mitchell led the team in touchdowns last season with 4, showing how much the ball was spread around in this offense.

Toledo’s Defense

The defensive side of the ball is full of questions marks for the Rockets. Let’s start with the one player who will be definitely missing, at least for the first half. Desjuan Johnson will miss the first half after a targeting call after an attempt to help tackle a Norfolk ball carrier at the end of the third quarter. Johnson finished the game with 4 tackles and half of a sack. The junior is one of the standouts on this defense and is the anchor of the defensive line, and Notre Dame would be wise to take advantage of the remaining defensive linemen in that first half.

Linebackers appears to be a strength for this Toledo defense in the early going. The Rockets are led by a familiar face to Irish fans. Jonathan Jones was tied for the lead in tackles last week and appears to be emerging as a starter in the inside linebacker position. Jamal Hines was the other leading tackler in the Norfolk State game. The game participation shows he was starting at DT, but it looks like he’s going to be all over the front seven, playing a pass rusher type role. Dyontae Johnson earned player of the week from his teammates and coaches in the OLB position and is the leading tackler for Toledo in 2020.

Photo by Daniel Miller/University of Toledo

The secondary, if fully healthy, spear to be the biggest strength of this Rockets defense. Tycen Johnson and Saeed Holt both are nursing injuries this week and missed the game against Norfolk State. Anderson, the senior safety, is the player poised to make some noise for himself. He is on the Thorpe Award watch list and is on a watch list for the Senior Bowl. Holt is his companion at free safety and is a converted linebacker. If both of them are healthy they could create interesting dynamics for the Irish receivers.

The one player the Irish will want to be on the look out for is their version of Agent Zero. Samuel Womack led the MAC in PBUs a year ago, and like Anderson, is one the Thorpe and Senior Bowl Watch Lists. He got an interception a week ago and looks to be the top CB on the team looking to shut down Austin or Lenzy on a given play.

Prediction

There are a couple of important things I want to note before I give a prediction. First, I want to mention that Toledo blocked two punts and returned both for TDs. I don’t think that’s repeatable, especially with the more experienced punt unit. Another thing I wanted to note is something I heard from Candle’s press conference on Monday.

In a question regarding to watching Sunday’s Notre Dame-Florida State game, he mentioned that there was a quick turnaround time on breaking down that film to work on their game plan. It made me think that the short week for the Irish works out in different ways for Toledo. Having the talent disadvantage on top of essentially working from a fresh slate.

That brings me to the linebacker situation. When Kelly announced that Xavier Watts would be converted to Rover and will potentially play this Saturday, I tried to think of which context that would be in. I reached out to our writers about that and the consensus seemed to be “We’ll See?” I could see Watts being in series when Finn is in at QB, playing a spy role. Others thought it was only in a garbage time situation where he would play. That situation is the biggest X Factor of this game.

I also wanted to briefly go back in time to 2016. That team, albeit in a different locker room and coaching staff situation, turned around after a Sunday primetime game and played the following Saturday afternoon. I think this Toledo team is better than that Nevada squad, but I think the parallels are similar. That team won 39-10.

I think the offense will score a similar number of points. I think Coan will have a similar type of day against a banged up Toledo secondary (at best). As for the defense, I think they will have another week of understanding the scheme. A week of film will help the mistakes against FSU. Also, I think the corners should do well against these Rocket receivers, as they are just not on the same caliber of any pass catcher on the Noles. I think the Irish keep Toledo at arms length for all four quarters. Toledo may be good, but they don’t hold a candle to the Irish.

Notre Dame 38

Toledo 20